Main financial assets discussed: Bitcoin (BTC-USD), Bitcoin mining companies (RIOT, MARA, CLSK, IREN, BITF, HUT)
Top 3 key points:
1. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024 is expected to be bullish for Bitcoin investors, but potentially bearish for Bitcoin mining companies. The halving event will reduce mining rewards, which could lead to decreased profitability for mining companies.
2. Investing in Bitcoin mining companies is a risky bet, as their profitability depends on the Bitcoin price doubling or more after the halving event. Most mining companies are already operating at a loss when Bitcoin is below $40,000.
3. If Bitcoin mining rewards were to halve now, many mining companies may become insolvent. Only the fittest and most efficient mining companies with larger balance sheets are likely to survive and potentially acquire competitors at low prices.
Recommended actions:
- **Buy**: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is recommended as a safer option due to multiple drivers for price appreciation and potential approval for a Bitcoin ETF. Consider hedging with ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) put options and staking for additional passive income.
- **Sell**: Bitcoin mining companies (RIOT, MARA, CLSK, IREN, BITF, HUT) are not recommended due to the potential decrease in profitability after the halving event. Most mining companies are already operating at a loss and may become insolvent.
- **Hold**: N/A
Blockware Intelligence's analysis titled "2024 Halving Analysis: Understanding Market Cycles and Opportunities Created by the Halving" suggests that Bitcoin's price could potentially reach $400,000 in the next halving epoch due to factors such as reduced sell pressure, increased demand, and historical performance.
Bitcoin price reaches a 2-month low, but crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts a positive change in the future due to market cycle theories and the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024, potentially reaching a price of $50-55K pre-halving.
Pantera Capital predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach nearly $150,000 in its next four-year halving cycle, based on historical trends and the impact of previous halvings.
In the latest episode of Market Talks, the future of BTC mining, the impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, and the ability for miners to hedge their operations with hash rate derivatives are discussed, with predictions that Bitcoin's volatility will decrease over time and the market will experience macro headwinds and potential new lows in the next six months.
Bitcoin may experience a period of stagnation before turning bullish again, according to crypto analyst Jason Pizzino, who believes that the cryptocurrency could remain in its current pattern for the next couple of months before potentially surging in late 2021 or early 2024.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving event is expected to drive the price of Bitcoin to a new all-time high, potentially surpassing $100,000, according to analysts and investors, despite the current lack of fresh inflow to the crypto market and macroeconomic challenges. Hut 8 vice president Sue Ennis believes that the Bitcoin price will rise above $100,000 in the next year, citing the increasing hash rate and the entry of new participants into the global Bitcoin network. Ennis also mentioned the importance of revenue diversification for miners to stay profitable after the halving, including exploring AI applications and offering ASIC repair services. Additionally, Ennis expressed optimism about the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, which she believes would be bullish for the asset class.
Bitcoin could experience a major market correction in September, potentially dropping by more than 16% based on historical performance and predictions by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that Bitcoin is likely to follow its historical bearish price action seen in pre-halving years and predicts that the cryptocurrency will remain within a range of $12,000 to $35,000 for the rest of 2023.
Bitcoin and crypto could experience significant growth in the next few months, with September expected to be a particularly eventful period, including the potential impact of U.S. bitcoin ETF filings and China declaring crypto as "legal property and protected by law."
The CEO of Custodia Bank believes that the next Bitcoin halving event will have a greater impact than previous ones, with a model predicting that Bitcoin will reach $147,843 in August 2025, 480 days after the halving event.
Altcoins could potentially rally ahead of the Bitcoin halving, according to cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who believes that the Bitcoin dominance chart suggests a surge in altcoin value rather than a downward market. Van de Poppe is also bullish on Ethereum against Bitcoin, predicting a rise in ETH/BTC to 0.06992 BTC.
Bitcoin's four-year cycles may not be directly linked to halving events, as an alternative theory suggests that they are more closely correlated with the global M2 money supply and macro patterns. However, analysts still anticipate a rally and new bull cycle following the next Bitcoin halving event in late 2024.
The global Bitcoin Bank market is expected to experience significant growth between 2023 and 2030, with the market value projected to reach multimillion dollars by 2030.
Bitcoin's weak performance and its potential "double top" structure raise concerns of more downside, with predictions of new local lows; however, there are indications that Bitcoin may experience a major shakeout before rebounding to "fair value" and the 200-week EMA near $25,600 may offer some optimism; debate ensues over the possibility of Bitcoin filling the $20,000 CME futures gap; liquidity levels on BTC/USD markets continue to increase, adding to bearish predictions; ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on September 14 brings potential volatility to the market and may impact crypto market expectations.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a short squeeze, leading to a rally in prices and a decline in open interest in futures and perpetual swaps trading. However, the lack of immediate bullish catalysts may cap the price recovery.
The vice president of Canaan predicts that the supply deficit caused by the next Bitcoin halving in 2024 will drive the price of Bitcoin past $100,000.
The recent increase in interest rates has impacted the price of bitcoin, with factors like opportunity cost, risk sentiment, and inflation expectations playing a role.
Cryptocurrency prices remained stable as inflation in the U.S. surpassed economists' expectations, with Bitcoin trading at around $26,100 and Ethereum experiencing a slight dip of 0.5%. The Federal Reserve will consider this report, among other factors, for its upcoming interest rate announcement on September 20. While inflation has decreased since June, it still exceeds the Fed's target of 2% annually. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, decreased to 4.3% in August compared to July's 4.7%.
Bitcoin's pre- and post-halving price action could differ from previous cycles due to a change in global monetary policy and tightening liquidity, potentially causing more pain for risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, according to crypto market analyst Jamie Coutts.
Bitcoin could potentially surge over 70% in a move similar to 2015, as crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe observes patterns that indicate a sustained trading range before a significant upside move ahead of the 2016 halving event.
A crypto analyst has shared a "cheatsheet" for predicting Bitcoin price movements ahead of the next halving, suggesting that BTC's current prices are within the expected pre-halving range and that a post-halving rally is likely.
Bitcoin, ethereum, BNB, and XRP have experienced a strong price rally in 2023, but a small cryptocurrency has surpassed them, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions could impact the bitcoin price.
The positive momentum surrounding Bitcoin's price is fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates again this year, while market participants remain optimistic despite the strength of the United States Dollar Index.
Bitcoin's market dominance rate has reached its strongest level in a month, rising to 50.2%, as risks rise for the rest of the cryptocurrency sector, while alternative cryptocurrencies may be on the brink of breaking lower.
Bitcoin is expected to mimic its previous rally and potentially see significant gains in the near future, according to crypto strategist Credible Crypto, who points to a bullish engulfing candle pattern and the defense of a key support level as positive signs for BTC's upward momentum.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a rise in value as traders made bullish bets in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, though this surge may be premature.
Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen predicts that Bitcoin will experience a short-term rise to test its bull market support band before resuming its downward trend, potentially falling below $20,000, although he believes it could eventually break through the band and enter a sustained bull market.
A 0% interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve is expected to be bullish for Bitcoin, as historically BTC's price has correlated with risk equities and central bank policy.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2024 will reduce block rewards for miners, prompting them to focus on strategies such as securing lower electricity rates, using more energy-efficient equipment, and accumulating excess capital in order to maintain profitability. Miners may also explore alternative revenue streams like Bitcoin Ordinals, which generate transaction fees within the Bitcoin network.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline after the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates, suggesting that significant gains may not be anticipated in the near future.
Bitcoin is expected to experience a strong upward pressure on its price due to the upcoming halving mechanism, making it an attractive time for investors to consider bitcoin mining stocks like Bitfarms and Cipher Mining.
Bitcoin could experience significant inflows from China in the coming months due to a weakening Chinese yuan and increasing capital flight, with Chinese investors turning to Bitcoin as a familiar investment in times of economic uncertainty, according to experts. The recent data shows that China's capital outflow reached its highest level since 2015 in August, potentially putting further pressure on the yuan. While Chinese capital controls may limit investment options, cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, is seen as a viable alternative. However, analysts caution that the impact of Chinese capital flight on Bitcoin may not be as significant as it was in 2017 due to changes in regulations and crackdowns on certain practices.
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates at their highest in over 20 years is posing a "nightmare" scenario for bitcoin and crypto companies, potentially leading to price chaos and further decline in the bitcoin price.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline in prices due to a strengthening dollar and risk-aversion, but there is hope for a rebound.
Bitcoin is poised for a bull run next year according to analyst Dave the Wave, who cites the cryptocurrency's monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and logarithmic growth curves (LGC) as indicators of a maturing market and potential price increase, although short-term volatility is still possible.
Bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur in mid-2024, is already 85% complete, and the supply held by long-term holders is nearing its all-time high, suggesting that a mature bull market may not begin until next year.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices are expected to remain bearish in the short term, but analysts anticipate a significant price increase after the 2024 halving event due to past performance and long-term valuation metrics.
Foundry's Kevin Zhang, a veteran bitcoin miner, believes that the upcoming halving event in 2024, which will cut the mining reward in half, will be a significant test for miners, but remains confident that with proper strategies, the industry will survive and bounce back stronger. Texas has emerged as the crypto capital of the United States, attracting miners due to its abundant clean energy and supportive regulatory environment.
Bitcoin is on the verge of reaching levels that offer accumulation opportunities and could potentially start an uptrend, according to crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe, who compares the current price action to that of a pre-halving year.
Bitcoin is set to end the quarter with its first decline this year, down 11% since June, as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and withdrawals of nearly $500 million from cryptocurrency products contribute to investor apprehension.
Major cryptocurrencies experienced a significant increase in value as over $100 million was unexpectedly liquidated due to a surprise surge in the price of Bitcoin, coinciding with the start of "Uptober," a potentially bullish trend for cryptocurrencies in October.
Crypto strategist predicts that Bitcoin will enter a massive bull run and reach new all-time highs once it surpasses a key support level, but warns that bearish speculation from the stock market could decrease momentum.
Former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, predicts that the United States government's ballooning treasury yields could lead to a new bull market for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, as rising interest rates may force the government to resort to mass liquidity injections.
Bitcoin's bull market is expected to reignite as the Federal Reserve is predicted to resume printing money, leading to a surge in Bitcoin's price, according to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.
The next crypto bull market is expected to start in Q2 2024, coinciding with the Bitcoin halving, but macro factors will play a more significant role in sparking the uptrend, according to macro investor Raoul Pal.
