Main financial assets discussed: Bitcoin (BTC-USD), Bitcoin mining companies (RIOT, MARA, CLSK, IREN, BITF, HUT)
Top 3 key points:
1. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024 is expected to be bullish for Bitcoin investors, but potentially bearish for Bitcoin mining companies. The halving event will reduce mining rewards, which could lead to decreased profitability for mining companies.
2. Investing in Bitcoin mining companies is a risky bet, as their profitability depends on the Bitcoin price doubling or more after the halving event. Most mining companies are already operating at a loss when Bitcoin is below $40,000.
3. If Bitcoin mining rewards were to halve now, many mining companies may become insolvent. Only the fittest and most efficient mining companies with larger balance sheets are likely to survive and potentially acquire competitors at low prices.
Recommended actions:
- **Buy**: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is recommended as a safer option due to multiple drivers for price appreciation and potential approval for a Bitcoin ETF. Consider hedging with ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) put options and staking for additional passive income.
- **Sell**: Bitcoin mining companies (RIOT, MARA, CLSK, IREN, BITF, HUT) are not recommended due to the potential decrease in profitability after the halving event. Most mining companies are already operating at a loss and may become insolvent.
- **Hold**: N/A
Blockware Intelligence's analysis titled "2024 Halving Analysis: Understanding Market Cycles and Opportunities Created by the Halving" suggests that Bitcoin's price could potentially reach $400,000 in the next halving epoch due to factors such as reduced sell pressure, increased demand, and historical performance.
Bitcoin price reaches a 2-month low, but crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts a positive change in the future due to market cycle theories and the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024, potentially reaching a price of $50-55K pre-halving.
In the latest episode of Market Talks, the future of BTC mining, the impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, and the ability for miners to hedge their operations with hash rate derivatives are discussed, with predictions that Bitcoin's volatility will decrease over time and the market will experience macro headwinds and potential new lows in the next six months.
Bitcoin may experience a period of stagnation before turning bullish again, according to crypto analyst Jason Pizzino, who believes that the cryptocurrency could remain in its current pattern for the next couple of months before potentially surging in late 2021 or early 2024.
Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to enter a rangebound phase until at least Q4 2023, according to market participant Filbfilb, who predicts that miners and speculation around the halving event will drive prices higher later in the year. However, macroeconomic risks, such as the Federal Reserve's policies, remain a key factor that could impact Bitcoin's performance.
Ethereum's price has surpassed Bitcoin's in the second half of 2023, as investor sentiment towards Ethereum has improved and Bitcoin dominance has declined, indicating a shift towards altcoins; Ethereum's oversold status and resilient consolidation above $1,500 suggest a potential bullish reversal in the coming days, but a drop below $1,500 is possible if bears gain control.
Bitcoin experienced a dip in price after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair hinted at the possibility of an interest rate hike, but an on-chain indicator suggests that Bitcoin is undervalued and presents a good opportunity for long positions in the coming week.
Bitcoin miners are struggling to stay profitable as the network hash rate reaches new highs, resulting in plummeting revenue and diluting shareholders.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving event is expected to drive the price of Bitcoin to a new all-time high, potentially surpassing $100,000, according to analysts and investors, despite the current lack of fresh inflow to the crypto market and macroeconomic challenges. Hut 8 vice president Sue Ennis believes that the Bitcoin price will rise above $100,000 in the next year, citing the increasing hash rate and the entry of new participants into the global Bitcoin network. Ennis also mentioned the importance of revenue diversification for miners to stay profitable after the halving, including exploring AI applications and offering ASIC repair services. Additionally, Ennis expressed optimism about the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, which she believes would be bullish for the asset class.
Bitcoin's recent legal victories and temporary price surges should not be mistaken for long-term catalysts, as the approval of a spot ETF, liquid staking capabilities, and the upcoming halving event hold the key to sustainable price appreciation.
Bitcoin and crypto could experience significant growth in the next few months, with September expected to be a particularly eventful period, including the potential impact of U.S. bitcoin ETF filings and China declaring crypto as "legal property and protected by law."
The CEO of Custodia Bank believes that the next Bitcoin halving event will have a greater impact than previous ones, with a model predicting that Bitcoin will reach $147,843 in August 2025, 480 days after the halving event.
Bitcoin's four-year cycles may not be directly linked to halving events, as an alternative theory suggests that they are more closely correlated with the global M2 money supply and macro patterns. However, analysts still anticipate a rally and new bull cycle following the next Bitcoin halving event in late 2024.
The upcoming Bitcoin mining reward halving in April 2024 is anticipated to boost the cryptocurrency market, although previous halvings did not single-handedly initiate bull runs, as macroeconomic factors like fiat liquidity conditions also played a significant role, according to MacroMicro data. The growth rate of the M2 money supply by major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People's Bank of China, is expected to impact the magnitude of the halving-induced uptrend.
Bitcoin must surpass a key price level in order to signal the end of its price stagnation, according to analyst Credible Crypto, who believes that Bitcoin dominance is rising and altcoins will suffer as a result.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a short squeeze, leading to a rally in prices and a decline in open interest in futures and perpetual swaps trading. However, the lack of immediate bullish catalysts may cap the price recovery.
The vice president of Canaan predicts that the supply deficit caused by the next Bitcoin halving in 2024 will drive the price of Bitcoin past $100,000.
Bitcoin's pre- and post-halving price action could differ from previous cycles due to a change in global monetary policy and tightening liquidity, potentially causing more pain for risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, according to crypto market analyst Jamie Coutts.
Bitcoin has the potential to rally and reach a new high in 2023, according to an analyst, who also states that the current price action looks constructive after a period of downward trend.
Bitcoin's market dominance rate has reached its strongest level in a month, rising to 50.2%, as risks rise for the rest of the cryptocurrency sector, while alternative cryptocurrencies may be on the brink of breaking lower.
Bitcoin miners must adapt their strategies and explore alternative income sources, such as securing lower electricity rates, upgrading equipment efficiency, and accumulating excess capital, to offset the reduced block rewards resulting from the upcoming 2024 halving.
Bitcoin is expected to experience a strong upward pressure on its price due to the upcoming halving mechanism, making it an attractive time for investors to consider bitcoin mining stocks like Bitfarms and Cipher Mining.
Bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur in mid-2024, is already 85% complete, and the supply held by long-term holders is nearing its all-time high, suggesting that a mature bull market may not begin until next year.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices are expected to remain bearish in the short term, but analysts anticipate a significant price increase after the 2024 halving event due to past performance and long-term valuation metrics.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline, approaching significant price levels, in response to a broader downturn in assets sensitive to risk and the anticipation of various macroeconomic factors impacting cryptocurrencies in the near future.
Despite the upcoming "halving" event, which will reduce mining rewards, Foundry, a mining firm in the crypto industry, is expanding its operations and remains confident in the long-term survival and growth of bitcoin mining, with Texas emerging as the bitcoin capital of the world due to its supportive regulatory environment and abundant clean energy.
Crypto mining stocks such as Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain, and CleanSpark are experiencing a rise as the price of Bitcoin gets a boost from optimism surrounding a potential spot ETF, with members of the House Financial Services Committee calling for its approval.
Bitcoin miners are experiencing increased profitability due to ordinal inscriptions, but research indicates that the upcoming block subsidy halving could have a severe impact on their income.
Bitcoin is on the verge of reaching levels that offer accumulation opportunities and could potentially start an uptrend, according to crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe, who compares the current price action to that of a pre-halving year.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are facing pressure due to the U.S. debt pile, leading to fears of a "debt death spiral" that could boost the bitcoin price.
The recent uncertainty regarding the United States debt limit and the subsequent signing of the spending bill by President Joe Biden led investors to question the momentum for cryptocurrencies, but with an extension in place, lawmakers need to find a solution before November 17 to avoid further economic risks. Bitcoin has experienced a price increase, prompting investors to anticipate volatility as the debt ceiling decision approaches, and a recommended neutral-market strategy involving options trading is suggested for investors looking to mitigate potential losses and profits.
Bitcoin's upcoming halving event in April 2024 has generated high anticipation, with predictions of another massive rally and a possible surge past $100,000; however, past performance, supply and demand dynamics, and evidence from Litecoin suggest caution in relying solely on these predictions.
Bitcoin and crypto markets are following a cyclical pattern, with bull markets typically occurring after halving events, but a significant pullback is anticipated in the period leading up to the next halving event in April or May 2023, potentially causing a drop in BTC prices.
Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten believes that the next Bitcoin halving in 2024 will not have a significant impact on the market due to the diminishing returns of the event over time.
Bitcoin bears could face an uphill battle as the potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund and the upcoming halving event could lead to a significant price increase in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin is poised for another meteoric rise due to the return of money printing by the US government, according to a trader who accurately predicted the end of the crypto's bull market in 2021, with Bitcoin potentially reaching a new all-time high of $180,000.
Bitcoin's mining difficulty has reached a new high, making it more challenging for miners to find blocks, and experts believe this surge in activity is due to the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
Bitcoin's dominance rate in the overall cryptocurrency market is rising to its highest level in months, threatening the rally of alternative cryptocurrencies, and is expected to continue growing in the coming days, according to technical analysis.
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 70% increase in 2023 and could continue to climb, potentially reaching price targets of $45,000-$50,000 by the end of the year, but faces headwinds from the tightening policies of the United States Federal Reserve; Standard Chartered also predicts a year-end price of $50,000 due to reduced BTC supply from miners.
The panel discussion at the Swan Pacific Bitcoin festival questioned whether the Bitcoin halving is truly a bullish event or just a narrative that novice investors believe in, with panelists expressing differing views on its impact on price and the role of derivatives in Bitcoin's price discovery, while ultimately agreeing that liquidity will play a significant role in future price movements.
