Main financial assets discussed: Bitcoin (BTC-USD), Bitcoin mining companies (RIOT, MARA, CLSK, IREN, BITF, HUT)
Top 3 key points:
1. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024 is expected to be bullish for Bitcoin investors, but potentially bearish for Bitcoin mining companies. The halving event will reduce mining rewards, which could lead to decreased profitability for mining companies.
2. Investing in Bitcoin mining companies is a risky bet, as their profitability depends on the Bitcoin price doubling or more after the halving event. Most mining companies are already operating at a loss when Bitcoin is below $40,000.
3. If Bitcoin mining rewards were to halve now, many mining companies may become insolvent. Only the fittest and most efficient mining companies with larger balance sheets are likely to survive and potentially acquire competitors at low prices.
Recommended actions:
- **Buy**: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is recommended as a safer option due to multiple drivers for price appreciation and potential approval for a Bitcoin ETF. Consider hedging with ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) put options and staking for additional passive income.
- **Sell**: Bitcoin mining companies (RIOT, MARA, CLSK, IREN, BITF, HUT) are not recommended due to the potential decrease in profitability after the halving event. Most mining companies are already operating at a loss and may become insolvent.
- **Hold**: N/A
Bitcoin's current market structure is similar to its setup before reaching its all-time high in November 2021, suggesting a potential bullish trajectory for the leading cryptocurrency, according to crypto expert Credible Crypto, who believes a breakout from the accumulation range could lead to a 120% rally and new all-time highs this year. However, a drop below $24.8k would invalidate this prediction.
Blockware Intelligence's analysis titled "2024 Halving Analysis: Understanding Market Cycles and Opportunities Created by the Halving" suggests that Bitcoin's price could potentially reach $400,000 in the next halving epoch due to factors such as reduced sell pressure, increased demand, and historical performance.
Bitcoin's longest-ever period of negative year-over-year returns is coming to an end, according to Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital, who believes that the market can only stay down for so long. Despite last week's downturn, Bitcoin is currently up over 20% from the previous year, and positive catalysts such as the XRP court ruling and endorsements from asset managers could further boost its value, along with the upcoming halving in April 2024. Morehead's models suggest Bitcoin could reach around $35,500 by the halving and nearly $150,000 by late 2025.
Bitcoin price reaches a 2-month low, but crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts a positive change in the future due to market cycle theories and the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024, potentially reaching a price of $50-55K pre-halving.
Bitcoin might experience a period of stagnation followed by a potential peak at $200,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026, according to a crypto analyst, although short-term prospects for Bitcoin appear challenging due to a comparison with the 1930s stock market and oversold condition.
In the latest episode of Market Talks, the future of BTC mining, the impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, and the ability for miners to hedge their operations with hash rate derivatives are discussed, with predictions that Bitcoin's volatility will decrease over time and the market will experience macro headwinds and potential new lows in the next six months.
Bitcoin remains on track for a massive bull cycle despite recent price decline, as indicated by broader indicators of its price patterns and the use of logarithmic growth curves. The 200-week moving average is seen as less significant as a key price support level for Bitcoin, and the analyst is also looking for an entry point for Ethereum.
Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to enter a rangebound phase until at least Q4 2023, according to market participant Filbfilb, who predicts that miners and speculation around the halving event will drive prices higher later in the year. However, macroeconomic risks, such as the Federal Reserve's policies, remain a key factor that could impact Bitcoin's performance.
Ethereum's price has surpassed Bitcoin's in the second half of 2023, as investor sentiment towards Ethereum has improved and Bitcoin dominance has declined, indicating a shift towards altcoins; Ethereum's oversold status and resilient consolidation above $1,500 suggest a potential bullish reversal in the coming days, but a drop below $1,500 is possible if bears gain control.
Digital assets-focused investment firm Pantera Capital predicts that Bitcoin will experience a parabolic bull run after the halving event in 2024, with the price potentially reaching $147,843 by mid-2025.
The US Federal Reserve's actions will determine the start of the next Bitcoin bull market, depending on their monetary policy decisions and willingness to hold interest rates higher for longer.
Cryptocurrency industry observers argue that Bitcoin is not in its longest bear market and may not even be in a bear market at all, as the definitions of bull and bear markets are subjective and can vary based on different interpretations. Some believe that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since its peak in November 2021, while others argue that Bitcoin has been in a continuous bull market since 2019.
A trader predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high before the end of 2023, with the possibility of a 157% rally from the current level.
Bitcoin is likely to experience a deep corrective move in September, with a potential drop of over 10% from current levels, according to crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen, who also suggests that the altcoin markets may see a resurgence next year due to a confluence of macro tailwinds.
Bitcoin has been on a bull run since the Federal Reserve's $25 billion program to stabilize the US banking system, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicts that the market will respond in the next six to 12 months.
The CEO of Custodia Bank believes that the next Bitcoin halving event will have a greater impact than previous ones, with a model predicting that Bitcoin will reach $147,843 in August 2025, 480 days after the halving event.
Altcoins could potentially rally ahead of the Bitcoin halving, according to cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who believes that the Bitcoin dominance chart suggests a surge in altcoin value rather than a downward market. Van de Poppe is also bullish on Ethereum against Bitcoin, predicting a rise in ETH/BTC to 0.06992 BTC.
Bitcoin's four-year cycles may not be directly linked to halving events, as an alternative theory suggests that they are more closely correlated with the global M2 money supply and macro patterns. However, analysts still anticipate a rally and new bull cycle following the next Bitcoin halving event in late 2024.
Despite the recent downturn in the crypto market, a key Bitcoin metric shows that 95% of the existing supply of Bitcoin has not moved in the past 30 days, indicating strong holding behavior and potential for a price rally with a buy-side catalyst.
Bitcoin is predicted to enter a "mid-cycle lull" before starting a bull run in late 2024, according to a new price model, with the date of November 28th identified as a key pivot point in the year.
The upcoming Bitcoin mining reward halving in April 2024 is anticipated to boost the cryptocurrency market, although previous halvings did not single-handedly initiate bull runs, as macroeconomic factors like fiat liquidity conditions also played a significant role, according to MacroMicro data. The growth rate of the M2 money supply by major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People's Bank of China, is expected to impact the magnitude of the halving-induced uptrend.
Bitcoin could experience one final correction of up to 10%, according to crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who advises long-term bulls to see it as an opportunity to increase their BTC holdings. However, if Bitcoin manages to stay above the 200-week EMA, it could continue to move upwards.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a short squeeze, leading to a rally in prices and a decline in open interest in futures and perpetual swaps trading. However, the lack of immediate bullish catalysts may cap the price recovery.
The vice president of Canaan predicts that the supply deficit caused by the next Bitcoin halving in 2024 will drive the price of Bitcoin past $100,000.
Bitcoin could potentially surge over 70% in a move similar to 2015, as crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe observes patterns that indicate a sustained trading range before a significant upside move ahead of the 2016 halving event.
A crypto analyst has shared a "cheatsheet" for predicting Bitcoin price movements ahead of the next halving, suggesting that BTC's current prices are within the expected pre-halving range and that a post-halving rally is likely.
Bitcoin has the potential to rally and reach a new high in 2023, according to an analyst, who also states that the current price action looks constructive after a period of downward trend.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2024 will reduce block rewards for miners, prompting them to focus on strategies such as securing lower electricity rates, using more energy-efficient equipment, and accumulating excess capital in order to maintain profitability. Miners may also explore alternative revenue streams like Bitcoin Ordinals, which generate transaction fees within the Bitcoin network.
Bitcoin is poised for a bull run next year according to analyst Dave the Wave, who cites the cryptocurrency's monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and logarithmic growth curves (LGC) as indicators of a maturing market and potential price increase, although short-term volatility is still possible.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices are expected to remain bearish in the short term, but analysts anticipate a significant price increase after the 2024 halving event due to past performance and long-term valuation metrics.
Bitcoin is on the verge of reaching levels that offer accumulation opportunities and could potentially start an uptrend, according to crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe, who compares the current price action to that of a pre-halving year.
Bitcoin is set to end the quarter with its first decline this year, down 11% since June, as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and withdrawals of nearly $500 million from cryptocurrency products contribute to investor apprehension.
Bitcoin (BTC) may test its bull market support and potentially have a final leg to the downside, as predicted by crypto analyst Rekt Capital, who also suggests that this could be the last chance to buy BTC at low prices before it potentially peaks in 2025.
Crypto strategist predicts that Bitcoin will enter a massive bull run and reach new all-time highs once it surpasses a key support level, but warns that bearish speculation from the stock market could decrease momentum.
Bitcoin's bull market is expected to reignite as the Federal Reserve is predicted to resume printing money, leading to a surge in Bitcoin's price, according to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.
The next crypto bull market is expected to start in Q2 2024, coinciding with the Bitcoin halving, but macro factors will play a more significant role in sparking the uptrend, according to macro investor Raoul Pal.
Bitcoin's bear market may be over and an upward expansion is likely, according to a popular crypto analyst who compares the current situation to that before the 2016 and 2020 bull markets.
Bitcoin's sideways price action could turn bullish as early as November, following patterns seen in previous cycles leading up to the halving event, according to market observers.
Bitcoin's upcoming halving event in April 2024 has generated high anticipation, with predictions of another massive rally and a possible surge past $100,000; however, past performance, supply and demand dynamics, and evidence from Litecoin suggest caution in relying solely on these predictions.
Bitcoin and crypto markets are following a cyclical pattern, with bull markets typically occurring after halving events, but a significant pullback is anticipated in the period leading up to the next halving event in April or May 2023, potentially causing a drop in BTC prices.
Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten believes that the next Bitcoin halving in 2024 will not have a significant impact on the market due to the diminishing returns of the event over time.
Bitcoin is potentially in a bull market, with the recent surge to $31,000 likely being the disbelief rally of the first stage, according to crypto strategist Jason Pizzino, although he acknowledges the possibility of a deep corrective move before a full-blown bull market begins.
Bitcoin is potentially in a bull market, with the recent surge to $31,000 being the "disbelief rally," according to crypto strategist Jason Pizzino, who also warns of a possible deep corrective move before a full-blown bull market.
The panel discussion at the Swan Pacific Bitcoin festival questioned whether the Bitcoin halving is truly a bullish event or just a narrative that novice investors believe in, with panelists expressing differing views on its impact on price and the role of derivatives in Bitcoin's price discovery, while ultimately agreeing that liquidity will play a significant role in future price movements.
The impact of the Bitcoin halving event on crypto prices is often overestimated, as the reduced supply of new Bitcoin must be accompanied by significant demand for prices to surge, and each halving's impact on supply decreases over time, with changes in demand becoming the dominant factor influencing Bitcoin's price.
