Main Topic: Russian warship firing warning shots on a Palau-flagged cargo ship in the Black Sea.
Key Points:
1. Russia scuppered a U.N.-brokered grain deal that allowed Ukraine to export agricultural produce via the Black Sea.
2. Russia warned that all ships heading to Ukrainian waters would be considered potentially carrying weapons.
3. Ukraine and the West view Russia's actions as a de-facto blockade of Ukrainian ports, threatening the flow of agricultural products to world markets.
Ukraine plans to defy the Russian blockade and reopen the Black Sea grain route.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his forces in occupied southern Ukraine are determined to retain control of Crimea, as it is key to Russia's regional power projection and allows them to dominate the Black Sea region, project force into the Mediterranean, and supply their units in neighboring oblasts.
Ukrainian forces have regained control of gas and oil offshore drilling platforms near Crimea, previously occupied by Russia, in a strategic operation that deprives Russia of military capabilities and brings Ukraine closer to regaining Crimea.
The Sevastopol Shipyard in Crimea was set on fire after Ukraine launched a missile attack, injuring at least 24 people, according to the governor of Sevastopol.
Ukraine has shelled Russia's Belgorod region, launched airstrikes on occupied Crimea, and destroyed Russian air defense systems in Crimea, resulting in casualties and damage; meanwhile, Russian President Putin has accepted an invitation to visit North Korea and is expecting a visit from Belarusian President Lukashenko.
Explosions rocked Crimea overnight, following Ukrainian strikes on a shipyard in Sevastopol and Russian claims that they destroyed 11 Ukrainian drones; the incidents come as Ukraine aims to reclaim Russian-occupied territories.
Ukraine's missile attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol has caused significant damage and could have long-term consequences for Moscow's military capabilities, potentially impacting repair facilities and reducing combat potential, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Russia claims to have foiled a coordinated Ukrainian attack on Crimea, with drones also targeting Moscow and causing disruptions to air traffic, while a fire at an oil depot in southwest Russia was reportedly caused by a Ukrainian drone.
Explosions reported in the Crimean city of Sevastopol were claimed by Ukrainian intelligence sources to be a joint operation by Ukraine's military intelligence and Navy, while the Moscow-installed governor said they were due to harmless aerosol camouflage used by the Black Sea Fleet.
Ukraine's defense intelligence agency head, Lieutenant-General Kyrylo Budanov, asserts that despite the slow progress, Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia is ongoing, and Russia's defensive line in southern Ukraine has been breached in some places, potentially cutting off land connections to Crimea before winter; however, he acknowledges the risk of Ukraine running down its own resources and the uncertainties regarding the continuation of Western support.
The Ukrainian military successfully targeted a command post for Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, resulting in a large fire and black smoke filling the sky, despite Russian-backed authorities claiming minimal damage.
Russia conducted a major missile attack on Ukraine, targeting energy facilities and causing power cuts in several regions, marking the beginning of a new air campaign against the Ukrainian power grid.
The Ukrainian army claims to have struck a Russian military airfield near the Crimean town of Saky, while several cities and towns in Ukraine were hit by Russian rockets, killing two and injuring others; Poland has announced it will no longer supply weapons to Ukraine amid a growing rift between the two countries over grain.
Ukraine launched a missile attack on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, causing a serviceman to go missing and the main building to catch fire.
### Summary
The commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Viktor Sokolov, was reportedly killed in an attack on the naval headquarters in Crimea, while Ukraine's port city of Odesa came under fire from Russian missiles and drones.
The Kremlin's lack of response to the Ukrainian strike on a naval headquarters in Sevastopol, despite accusations of U.S. and British involvement, highlights Moscow's vulnerability and undermines their warlike rhetoric, according to Russian propagandist Sergey Mardan.
The recent events in Crimea, particularly Sevastopol, have politically embarrassed, operationally dominated, and tactically outfought Russia, but until this translates into the restoration of freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, it cannot be considered a strategic turning point.
