### Summary
The US economy and markets appear to be in good shape, with a strong stock market, low inflation, and low unemployment. However, there are potential risks on the horizon, including the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, supply and labor shocks from the pandemic, political polarization, and the possibility of another government shutdown. While the overall outlook for investing remains uncertain, it's important for investors to prepare for any eventuality.
### Facts
- The US stock market is close to its 2022 peak, inflation is less severe than a year ago, and the economy remains strong with low unemployment.
- The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 5 percentage points, which could lead to economic growth faltering.
- The US economy is facing supply and labor shocks from the pandemic and commodity shortages caused by Russia's war with Ukraine.
- Falling prices in China could contribute to disinflation in the US and elsewhere.
- Political polarization in the US and the possibility of another government shutdown could negatively impact the economy and markets.
- Despite the resilience and stability of the economy and markets, there are still risks to consider, including a crisis in commercial real estate and the potential for inflation to flare up again.
- Some economists and surveys predict a 50% probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months.
- Investing should be based on a long-term outlook and a diversified portfolio, with cash on hand to cover expenses.
Note: Due to the nature of the text provided, some of the facts may be subjective or based on the author's opinion.
### Summary
📉 Americans could run out of savings as early as this quarter, according to a Fed study. Excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
### Facts
- 💸 As of June, US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings.
- 💰 Excess savings refer to the difference between actual savings and the pre-recession trend.
- 🔎 San Francisco Fed researchers Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira estimate that these excess savings will be exhausted by the end of the third quarter of 2023.
- 💳 Americans are using their credit cards more, accumulating nearly $1 trillion of debt.
- 📉 The downbeat forecast raises concerns about the US economy as consumer spending is crucial for growth.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the U.S. government is "more likely than not" to shut down later this year due to spending disagreements, which could temporarily impact economic growth by reducing it by 0.15-0.2 percentage points per week, with past shutdowns having minimal impact on equity markets.
Around $1.2 trillion of debt on US commercial real estate is considered "potentially troubled" due to high leverage and falling property values, with office spaces being the most affected and accounting for over half of the at-risk debt that will mature by the end of 2025.
The US economy is growing rapidly with favorable conditions for workers, but despite this, many Americans feel pessimistic about the economy due to inflation and high prices, which are driven by complex global forces and not solely under the control of President Biden or Trump. Housing affordability is also a major concern. However, the Biden administration can still tout the economic recovery, with low unemployment and strong economic growth forecasts.
The US government's debt has reached a record high of almost $33 trillion, causing concerns about its impact on the nation's finances and the risk of a debt crisis, according to experts like Larry McDonald, Ray Dalio, and Nouriel Roubini.
Despite President Biden's claims of cutting the federal budget deficit by $1.7 trillion, in reality, the deficit is projected to hit $2 trillion this year, with government spending remaining high and the reduction in the deficit primarily due to the expiration of COVID-19 emergency spending.
Risk-off sentiments prevailed on Wall Street as several notable names hit their lowest levels in over a year and mega-cap tech stocks suffered a $200 billion stumble, fueled by concerns over sticky inflation and rising bond yields.
The U.S.'s national debt has reached nearly $33 trillion and while debt has its uses, concerns are rising about its impact on the economy, particularly as the debt-to-GDP ratio nears 100%.
The US is facing a potential financial crisis as the national debt reaches $33 trillion and the federal deficit is expected to double, posing a threat to President Biden's government and potential consequences for American citizens.
President Joe Biden warns that Republican-backed spending cuts could negatively impact the U.S. economy and voters as the deadline for a possible government shutdown approaches.
Americans are feeling uncertain about the economy's direction and are starting to worry about a possible government shutdown, as consumer sentiment dips in September due to concerns about inflation and higher gas prices.
The US federal debt has reached $32.94 trillion, prompting concerns from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon about the impact on households, while Congress faces pressure to pass a new budget before potential government shutdown at the end of September.
The US's $32 trillion debt may not be as dire as it seems, as experts point out misconceptions about the national deficit and its impact on the economy. However, future debt problems could arise due to current spending rates.
The US national debt has reached a record high of $33 trillion, prompting the need for leaders to decide whether to raise the debt ceiling, as inflation continues to rise and there is a looming government shutdown.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes that despite the national debt nearing $33 trillion, the federal government's debt burden remains under control due to the net interest as a share of GDP remaining at a reasonable level. However, critics warn of the potential risks of a growing debt and credit bubble. Additionally, Yellen hopes for a quick resolution to the United Auto Workers' strike, stating that the economy remains strong overall.
The White House warns that a government shutdown at the end of the month could have damaging consequences for the economy, national security, and the American public.
US stock futures rise as investors await Fed decision on rates; US debt rises to $33 trillion as government shutdown looms; Federal Reserve expected to pause rate hikes; Impact of government shutdown, autoworkers strike, and rising oil prices on the economy; Biden reshapes the Federal Reserve.
Millions of federal employees and military personnel face the prospect of a government shutdown, which would result in financial hardships for American families, disruptions in services, and potential harm to the economy.
The impending federal shutdown, combined with other economic challenges such as rising gas prices, student loan payments, and reduced pandemic savings, is expected to strain American households and potentially weaken economic growth in the last quarter of the year.
The U.S. travel economy stands to lose nearly $1 billion per week during a government shutdown, as six in 10 Americans would cancel trips or avoid flying, according to analysis by the U.S. Travel Association. The previous government shutdown in 2018-2019 cost the economy $11 billion, with national parks, monuments, and tourism-dependent towns taking a significant hit. Closure of government-run museums and monuments in Washington, D.C., during a shutdown also leads to substantial economic losses. The hassle of traveling is exacerbated, further discouraging tourism and spending.
Google searches about the potential government shutdown in the US are increasing, with a particular interest in how it would affect Social Security, veterans' benefits, and the US dollar.
A U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact its credit assessment and highlight the weakness of its institutional and governance strength compared to other top-rated governments, according to Moody's, although the economic impact would likely be short-lived.
The US economy is currently in decent shape, with a resilient labor market, moderated inflation, and expected strong GDP growth, but there are potential headwinds and uncertainties ahead, including UAW strikes, student debt payments resuming, and the risk of a government shutdown, which could collectively have a significant impact on the economy. Additionally, the labor market is slowing down, inflation remains a concern, and the actions of the Federal Reserve and other factors could influence the economic outlook. While there are reasons for optimism, there are also risks to consider.
A brief government shutdown is unlikely to significantly slow down the economy, but a prolonged shutdown could hurt growth and potentially impact President Biden's re-election prospects.
The U.S. has a national debt of $33 trillion, raising concerns as the possibility of a government shutdown looms and lawmakers debate spending for 2024.
A potential government shutdown is causing some investors to worry, contributing to the stock market's recent dip, but experts believe the impact on asset markets is already priced in, while previous shutdowns have shown to have little long-term effect on stocks.
The White House has warned that the partial shutdown of the US government could hinder almost 2,000 long-term disaster recovery projects, impacting communities across the country.
The US is facing the possibility of a government shutdown as Republicans demand deep spending cuts, risking furloughs of federal workers and halting various services.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that a potential government shutdown would harm economic progress, impacting key programs for small businesses and children and delaying infrastructure improvements.
A potential government shutdown in the United States could lead to furloughs, paused paychecks, and a significant economic impact, potentially costing upwards of $1 billion a week, while the stock market and interest rates may not be heavily affected.
The United States government is at risk of a partial shutdown, which could impact the progress of crypto bills and hinder the functioning of financial regulators.
Summary: The U.S. stock market had a bad quarter, with all indexes falling, while the World Bank lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific, and China's demand for commodities continues to grow despite the downgrade. Additionally, a last-minute spending bill was passed to avoid a government shutdown, and this week's focus will be on the labor market.
The potential threat of another government shutdown in the US has Wall Street concerned about the country's AAA credit ratings, with Moody's warning that a shutdown would be a credit negative for the US.
America's gross national debt has reached a record $33 trillion, surpassing its spending on national defense, and the rising interest rates will further worsen the situation.
The U.S. economy's job numbers appear strong on the surface, with a significant increase in non-farm payrolls, but a closer look reveals weaknesses such as a rise in part-time workers, a decrease in full-time workers, and an increase in people holding multiple jobs, indicating financial struggles for many Americans. Additionally, government jobs, rather than private sector jobs, experienced the largest increase, while manufacturing workers face affordability challenges due to rising prices outpacing wage growth. The Biden administration's economic policies have led to low favorability ratings and increased costs for groceries and gasoline. Home affordability is worsening, with high mortgage rates and negative trends in housing starts and sales. Although the economy shows resilience due to rising corporate profits, Joe Biden's proposed tax hikes threaten business success. The article criticizes Biden's claims about cutting the federal debt and achieving budget surpluses, stating that the budget deficit is expected to reach $2 trillion or more in fiscal year 2023. Overall, the analysis suggests weaknesses and concerns in the U.S. economy under the Biden administration.
