### Summary
The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages, suggesting that the stock market is not unanchored from reality. However, the performance of long-term US Treasuries has been poor, with even 10-year Treasuries resulting in losses over the last five years. Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain whether it will be enough to bring down inflation rates.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages.
- The performance of long-term US Treasuries has been weak, resulting in losses for investors even after accounting for coupon payments.
- Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain if it will bring down inflation rates.
- The nature of the stock market rally suggests that investors are still searching for buying opportunities rather than thinking about selling.
- Energy, industrials, and financials have become favored sectors, while technology stocks have started to decline.
- The Chinese economy is struggling, with retail sales and industrial production growth slowing down.
- The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about inflation but also noted downside risks to the economy.
###
Surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing concern among investors as they wonder how much it will impact the rally in stocks and speculative assets, with the S&P 500, technology sector, bitcoin, and high-growth names all experiencing losses; rising rates are making it more difficult for borrowers and increasing the appeal of risk-free Treasury yields.
Stocks are facing a "real" yield problem as investors become more focused on rising real yields, which could result in lower stock prices and a hit to the P/E multiple.
Investors are turning to high-yield cash alternatives, such as savings accounts and bonds, which offer returns of over 5% and are outperforming the S&P 500, prompting some to reconsider their exposure to the stock market's volatility.
This article does not mention any specific stocks. The author's advice is to rotate out of historically overvalued financial assets and into historically undervalued critical resources. The author's core argument is that there is a high probability of a recession in the next twelve months, and they believe that the Fed's policies will contribute to this recession. The author also highlights potential risks in the junk bond market, the private equity industry, and the banking sector.
Four Big Tech companies - Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta - collectively lost $625 billion in market value this month, likely due to seasonal trends and a broader decline in US equities triggered by higher bond yields.
Wall Street's main indexes rose as a decline in Treasury yields boosted megacap growth stocks ahead of key inflation and jobs data, providing more insight into the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.
Buyers returned to the stock market after positive data on the U.S. jobs market suggested that wage inflation may decrease further, with Microsoft stock showing promising signs in forming a new base, while China's PDD Holdings experienced a significant gain amid hopes of government measures to stimulate economic activity. Additionally, megacap tech stocks led a broad rally in the stock market, with the Nasdaq composite rising 1.7%, and there is anticipation of a potential increase in the overnight fed funds rate and a rise in bond yields.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, up over 17%, and could potentially reach 5,000 points by the end of 2023, according to expert Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley. Despite a slight pullback in August, strong third-quarter earnings and investor interest in mega-cap tech stocks are expected to drive the market forward.
Despite economic challenges, the S&P 500 is expected to continue its strong growth, potentially increasing by as much as 11% as the summer season ends, driven by companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Slimmon.
Large-cap companies that are taking market share, like Apple, Nvidia, and Urban Outfitters, have the potential to generate significant returns for investors due to their advantages in financing, brand recognition, and economies of scale.
The top 25 stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index in the 35th week of 2023, with tech stocks leading the way, suggesting a return of bull markets and a decrease in recessionary fears; however, market health, the balance between developed and emerging markets, and investor behavior still need to be addressed. Additionally, market correlations have dropped since COVID, and on "down-market" days, correlations are 5% higher than on "up-market" days. Market correlations also decrease during upward economic cycles. Retail investors are showing a preference for dividend-driven investing and investing in AI stocks. The global subsidies race is impacting valuations in tech and leading to supply chain inefficiencies. As a result, there are opportunities for diversification and investment in a wide variety of equities and bonds.
Analysts at BMO and UBS predict that the yield on the 10-year Treasury will surpass the S&P 500 earnings yield, indicating a potential fall in stocks and a rise in bond prices.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, but one expert believes the rally is coming to an end, citing rising bond yields as the main threat to stock prices.
High-yield bonds outperforming relative to corporate bonds suggests a risk-on environment for stocks, according to a bullish signal in the bond market.
The S&P 500 is up 12.5% in 2023, driven by megacaps including Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla, while several other top performers such as Royal Caribbean, Carnival Corp., and General Electric have recently sold off during the market correction and need some repair time.
The recent surge in bond yields, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting levels not seen in over 15 years, is impacting the stock market as investors shift their focus to safer bond investments, which offer higher yields and less volatility than stocks.
The surging bond yields are causing concern among investors that the highly valued shares of giant technology and growth companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla, may be vulnerable to a decline.
Stocks are essentially long-term bonds with a variable coupon, and the bond nature of stocks will result in the S&P 500 returning to last year's lows following new lows in the price of long-term bonds.
The recent losses in the S&P 500 could be beneficial for the overall index, as market breadth and gains across companies are considered signs of a healthy stock market, according to Wall Street strategists. The outperformance of a select group of large-cap stocks known as the 'Magnificent Seven' is expected to give way to a cyclical trade led by the other 493 companies in the index.
Several prominent mega-cap tech stocks including Apple, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft, referred to as the Magnificent Seven by CNBC's Jim Cramer, are able to hold their own against the gravitational pull of the bond market due to their cash reserves and strong balance sheets.
Investors should remain bullish on US large cap stocks due to several factors, including the S&P 500's strength, high cash yields driving consumer spending, a strong economy, favorable stock valuations despite high interest rates, and relatively cheap equal-weighted stocks.
Smaller-cap stocks with lower valuations are expected to outperform mega-cap tech stocks, driving the S&P 500 higher, according to analysts.
Wall Street's key indexes dropped as Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since 2007, causing concerns over higher interest rates and leading to a decline in megacap stocks such as Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft.
S&P 500 utility stocks are currently undervalued and offering attractive dividends, making them an appealing opportunity for value-focused investors, despite competing with Treasury yields.
Surging Treasury yields are weighing on stocks and financial markets, and the only way to relieve the pain for bond investors may be a decline in stocks.
Market observers are concerned about a sharp jump in Treasury yields similar to that of the 1987 crash, and Saxo Bank's chief investment officer Steen Jakobsen suggests that investors reduce risk by increasing cash balances, hedging portfolios, rotating into short-term bonds, favoring defensive sectors over cyclicals, and avoiding mega-cap stocks.
The dominance of the seven largest stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, may indicate a brittle bull run and weak market breadth, causing concerns among financial experts. However, there is no need for drastic actions, and investors should stick to a disciplined investment plan and ensure diversification.
The rise in Treasury bond yields above 5% could lead to a more sustainable increase and potential havoc in financial markets, as investors demand greater compensation for risk and corporate credit spreads widen, making government debt a more attractive option and leaving the stock market vulnerable to declines; despite this, stock investors appeared unfazed by the September jobs report and all three major stock indexes were higher by the end of trading.
Despite challenges such as surging Treasury yields and Federal Reserve hawkishness, the equity-investing landscape has shown resilience, with the S&P 500 posting modest gains and the Nasdaq 100 up for the week. Investors remain optimistic about the economy's ability to withstand higher borrowing costs and anticipate positive revenue and earnings growth. Credit markets have remained stable, while volatility has remained muted and profit strength in Corporate America is expected to drive stocks.
Despite disappointing performance in 2023, bond market experts believe that fixed income investments, particularly bonds, have a positive outlook due to the expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon stop raising interest rates. The rise in bond yields presents a buying opportunity, with reasonable valuations and high yields offering potential returns. However, the threat of elevated interest rates remains, impacting the value of fixed income investments. The experts advise diversifying within the fixed income asset class, considering options such as Treasuries, municipal bonds, and high-yield bonds, while being cautious about credit quality and duration.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw declines as megacap stocks overshadowed positive earnings from major U.S. banks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose, and concerns over the conflict in the Middle East led to a rally in safe-haven assets.
If bond yields surpass 5% for a prolonged period, stocks may face trouble, according to Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, who believes this level is a critical threshold for the market, although other factors such as economic data, inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the availability of small business loans may also impact stock performance.
Tech giants are driving the positive performance of the stock market, while small caps are struggling; however, there may be an undervalued and rising opportunity in streaming stocks.
Bond yields have surged as investors realize they are a poor hedge against inflation, while stocks are a much better option, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel.
The S&P 500's record-breaking performance, driven by a handful of technology stocks, is causing concern among economists due to their inflated valuations and the high levels of Treasury debt yields, suggesting an imminent correction in the market.
Pressure is mounting on technology and growth companies, including Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, to deliver strong earnings amid high bond yields, which could overshadow the appeal of equities.
Investors are digesting a combination of company reports, geopolitical tensions, and weak earnings from United Airlines, as major indexes fell and gold and bonds rose in premarket trading, however, this does not necessarily mean that yields do not matter, it just suggests that investors may be getting used to higher yields.
Bitcoin has seen a significant increase of over 9% in value, while the S&P 500 and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index have both experienced a decrease.
US corporate debt markets are showing signs of weakness as yields rise and equities fall, with risk premiums for investment-grade bonds at their highest levels since June and yields on junk bonds at their highest in a year.
The majority of stocks are currently underperforming, indicating a possible stock market crash, as treasuries experience a disturbing crash and credit spreads start to widen, according to analyst Michael A. Gayed.
Big tech giants Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Tesla, and Nvidia dominate the stock market, representing almost 30% of the S&P 500 market cap, while investors anticipate their third-quarter earnings reports.
The recent rise in bond yields is putting pressure on the stock markets, but mega-cap tech stocks like Nvidia and Amazon are considered strong defensive plays with significant upside potential according to market expert Jim Cramer and Wall Street analysts.
Investors are relying on the earnings reports from Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. to reignite the rally of tech stocks in the equity market, which remain the most-crowded trade among fund managers and have been driving the S&P 500 Index's gains this year.
The appeal of bonds over stocks is increasing due to soaring U.S. Treasury yields, potentially impacting equity performance in the long term.
The "Magnificent Seven" group of megacap technology stocks, including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple, have broken below a bearish technical price chart pattern called a "triple top," potentially signaling more losses ahead.
The "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap Big Tech stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla, have lost $1.2 trillion in market value since the end of July, attributed to investors' fears about the Fed's rate hikes and spiking bond yields.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is now equivalent to the highest dividends paid by S&P 500 firms, leading to investors pulling cash from dividend stock funds at a faster pace than the overall stock market. The narrowing difference between dividend yields and the 10-year Treasury yield suggests that bonds are becoming a viable competitor to stocks.
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