Despite slowing growth in the first half of 2024, economists predict that the US will likely avoid a recession, with a strong job market, stable labor market, continued worker organizing, and a competitive housing market, while consumer spending is expected to remain strong and political outcomes pose a potential economic risk.
The Chairman of the State Bank of India (SBI) says that the era of loan write-offs is over, thanks to the asset quality review (AQR), and the banking sector has learned from past mistakes, resulting in improved lending practices and responsible borrowing by both corporates and retail customers. The SBI is fully prepared to support the asset growth of over Rs 7 lakh crore and is optimistic about the country's economic growth, particularly in the agriculture and FMCG sectors, despite global challenges. The bank has also focused on building its organic capabilities and has seen positive trends in rural demand. However, the Chairman acknowledges that there is still mispricing of risks by some banks and emphasizes the importance of understanding sectors before lending to them.
The Congressional Budget Office predicts that a softer labor market and slower rent increases will help lower inflation in 2024, with unemployment expected to rise to 4.4% and remain close to that level through 2025.
A privately run aluminum producer in China's Guangdong province has forced staff to take five months of leave on reduced salaries, highlighting potential unemployment issues in the country due to an ongoing real estate crisis and weak economic prospects; however, official jobless data has shown stabilization, causing concerns about the overall scale of production suspensions or extended unpaid leave.
Inflation has been a prevalent issue in 2023, and as families prepare for 2024, it is important to understand its impact on borrowing and expenses, and to create a family budget and consider investing in assets to prepare for potential volatility in the market.
Egg prices in the US have jumped nearly 10 percent in a week due to a surge in bird flu, with prices for the cheapest packs of 12 now around $2, up from $1.75 a month ago.
Asia begins the last week of 2023 with a waning risk appetite and focuses on the Bank of Japan's policy decision, along with rate decisions from the People's Bank of China and Bank Indonesia, Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes, and Japanese consumer price inflation.
Generative AI has the potential to boost India's GDP by $1.2-1.5 trillion over the next seven years, with sectors such as business services, financial services, education, retail, and healthcare expected to benefit the most, according to a report by Ernst & Young India.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurates the Surat Diamond Bourse and predicts that India will become one of the top three economies in the world in his third term, while also promising to boost the gems and jewelry industry and exports.
Federal Reserve officials and economists are growing confident that high interest rates and improved supply chains will soon bring down inflation without causing a severe recession or spike in unemployment. Inflation has been steadily decreasing, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge is expected to dip below its target of 2% in the coming months. Prices of goods have fallen, housing and rental costs are rising more slowly, and wage growth has cooled, all contributing to the decline in inflation. While officials remain cautious, many economists believe that inflation is nearly back under control.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago warns that it is too early to declare victory on the US achieving an economic "soft landing" due to concerning data points and the need to get inflation down to target.
The likelihood of a recession in Australia next year is uncertain, as different measures and definitions of recession complicate predictions and forecasting, and historically economists have had a poor track record in predicting recessions.
The top exterior design trends in 2024 include dark and earth-toned paints, monochrome designs, mixing textures, trimless and geometric windows, bigger details, outdoor living spaces, and the integration of smart home technology.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has declared that India will be one of the world's top three economies during his third term, as he inaugurated the Surat Diamond Bourse, the largest office complex of its kind globally, and unveiled a new terminal at Surat airport.
Greece has emerged as the top economic performer in 2023, defying expectations of a global recession, while countries like Germany and Finland have struggled.
Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe states that there is no alternative to the IMF program for the country to address its economic bankruptcy.
The US economy is experiencing a "Goldilocks" soft landing scenario, with inflation cooling and economic growth remaining steady, but the Federal Reserve is expected to keep monetary policy tight for a while longer, which may lead to elevated recession risks and unfriendly conditions for markets. However, consumer and business financial health remains strong, reducing the likelihood of a severe economic downturn.
Uttar Pradesh has become the second-largest economy in India, trailing behind Maharashtra, according to a report by online platform soic.in, highlighting the efforts of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath towards economic development in the state.
Israel's economy grew slower than expected in the third quarter, raising the possibility of rate cuts due to the impact of the war with Hamas and inflation easing in November.
Despite initial gloomy predictions, the UK economy has shown resilience and is likely to experience slight growth of approximately 0.5% for the year, while the US economy has performed robustly, defying recession forecasts; however, Germany may face contraction. Inflation in the UK did not quite reach the anticipated 4% by year-end due to falling global energy and commodity prices, with domestic factors such as high pay inflation and limited labor supply creating challenges. Real incomes started to rise in July, and the housing market and public finances showed signs of improvement.
Despite positive economic indicators such as job growth and decreasing gas prices, President Biden's approval ratings are low, with only 33% of Americans approving of his performance according to a Pew poll, possibly due to lingering effects of inflation and concerns about his age.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem anticipates a year of transition in 2024, with inflation nearing the bank's target and interest rate cuts to follow, while Canadians face record levels of debt stress and the sales of electric SUVs and crossovers continue to boom. Additionally, Canada is striving to become an electric vehicle powerhouse, and a whistleblower alleges a government cover-up regarding a report on a green-tech funding agency. On a positive note, Winnipeg is considered the most livable city in Canada for raising children.
The recent expansion of BRICS and the addition of new members should alarm US policymakers as it could amplify dedollarization efforts and lead to greater global coordination against the dominance of the US dollar, according to a former State Department official.
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak is facing a multitude of challenges, including a shrinking economy, rising national debt, high NHS waiting lists, and failing immigration policies, despite the expected fall in inflation, which does not equate to a decrease in household expenses; as the cost of living crisis continues, household incomes are predicted to take until 2027 to recover pre-crisis levels, exacerbating the housing affordability problem that will particularly affect young adults and renters.
Australia's commodity export earnings are expected to decline in the next few years due to slumping prices of iron ore, liquefied natural gas, and coal, according to government forecasts.
Inflation in the US peaked at over 9% in 2022 but has since cooled, yet a CNBC survey indicates that 61% of respondents still feel the financial stress caused by inflation; although November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported 3.1% inflation, it is still higher than the ideal 2% target, and elevated living costs like groceries, restaurant food, and shelter expenses contribute to the lingering effects of inflation, leaving Americans to cope by cutting expenses, seeking extra income, and advocating for higher wages.
The decline in oil prices is expected to further boost emerging-market bonds and currencies, as it suggests inflation will slow and the finances of net-oil importers will improve.
Former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan, warns that if India's growth rate remains at 6% annually without any population growth, the country will reach the end of its demographic dividend by 2047 and still be classified as a lower middle-income country.
Inflation in the UK is expected to drop to 2.8% by the end of 2024, putting pressure on the Bank of England to reconsider raising interest rates and potentially leading to rate cuts in the near future to boost the economy and stock market.
The Federal Reserve's change in tone regarding future rate cuts has sparked a strong market rally for stocks and bonds, despite the unemployment rate being low and inflation still elevated.
The surge in immigration is emerging as a more potent political issue than the economy in high-income countries, with dissatisfaction driving electoral pushback that threatens the globalist policies of the past, as migration's impact on public services, housing, and national identity become more apparent.
New York City's tourism industry is recovering post-pandemic, but a full recovery relies on the return of Chinese tourists who typically spend the most money and stay the longest, yet are being hindered by economic challenges and travel limitations in China.
Lower mortgage rates in 2024 will provide affordability for homebuyers, but increased competition and rising home prices may still pose challenges in the housing market.
UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti doubts that central banks have inflation under control despite recent comments from the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell.
Household affluence has led to exceptional growth in household consumption, with washing liquids being the fastest growing category among fast-moving consumer goods, driven by increased ownership of washing machines and the demand for convenience products, according to market researcher Kantar.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi announces the government's 25-year plan for India's economy, aiming to make it a $10 trillion economy and among the top three in the world.
Stricter capital requirements in the US could impact green finance as banks will face higher capital costs, leading to a need for the industry to reconsider existing climate financing structures and potentially move towards shadow banking.
Hong Kong's finance chief, Paul Chan, warns that the city may have to tighten belts and expects a deficit of over HK$100 billion due to predicted economic growth slowdown, while Eddie Yue Wai-man, the head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, remains cautiously optimistic about the city's economic outlook.
Former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan warns that India will stay a lower middle income country if its growth rate remains at 6% per year, without any rise in population, by 2047.
The Pakistani rupee is expected to depreciate another 5-10% in 2024 due to economic challenges, including inflation, debt obligations, and dwindling foreign exchange reserves, according to a report from Tresmark.
China's top science academy warns of a potential "middle-technology trap" and calls for the country to open its doors to avoid becoming stuck in a stage of economic stagnation due to lack of technological advances and difficulties in industrial upgrading.
A new wave of homegrown fragrance brands is emerging in Kannauj, India, with a focus on preserving the traditional perfume-making traditions of the region and supporting local artisans. These brands are reintroducing traditional ittars, natural perfumes produced through hydrodistillation, to consumers and are experiencing growing demand both domestically and internationally.
Two best friends from the UK have transformed their lives by renting out properties on Airbnb, earning an average monthly profit of £20,000 ($38,000) and allowing them to live a life of luxury, never having to fly economy class again.
Most money managers in China have lost money in 2023, with only 11% of actively managed funds delivering positive returns, reflecting the country's struggling economy and stock market.
2024 is expected to be a dynamic and impactful year, driven by advancements in AI and technology, regulation challenges, and shifts in the job market, transportation, and work culture.
Alaska plans to allocate $2.3 billion to its Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD), giving about $3,400 to residents to help them cope with inflation and rising prices of goods and services.
Dairy farmers in Hokkaido, Japan are going out of business at a rapid rate due to collapsing calve prices and skyrocketing feed prices, revealing a vulnerability in the country's food security approach.
The rupee is expected to face a significant devaluation next year due to troubling trends such as a decline in remittances and poor export figures, leading traders to factor in a 5-10% depreciation in 2024.
Bangladesh plans to implement more than 50 reform measures over the next three years to rebuild foreign currency reserves, curb inflation, and promote inclusive and green growth, according to the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies submitted to the International Monetary Fund. The government aims to reduce inflation to 5-6% and increase gross international reserves to about four months of prospective imports by 2025-26. It also plans to liberalize the exchange rate and interest rate on bank loans, rationalize tax expenditures, strengthen project selection, minimize borrowing costs, improve transparency in state-owned enterprises, and address bank balance sheet weaknesses.
Improved rainfall in Argentina gives hope to agricultural producers for this year's harvest and the country's export prospects, despite economic challenges under the new government.