The bond markets are going through a volatile period, with collapsing bond prices and rising yields, as investors dump US treasuries due to factors such as fears of conflict in the Middle East and concerns about President Joe Biden's high-spending approach, leading to higher interest rates and impacting mortgages and debt.
American and European businesses are becoming increasingly pessimistic about doing business in China due to a negative change in sentiment and a deteriorating business environment, including Beijing's hostile attitude, restrictions on technology exports and investments, espionage laws, and rising Chinese wages.
Nearly half of surveyed business leaders expect to withhold cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) or any kind of raises next year, potentially impacting workers who are trying to recover from inflation; however, 74% of business leaders still plan to give raises, largely based on performance.
U.S. inflation slowdown is a trend, not a temporary blip, according to Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, who believes the downward trend will continue and hopes that it does, while also expressing concern over rising oil prices and possible economic disruptions in the Middle East; Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni suggests the Fed is likely done with interest rate hikes and may reach its 2% inflation target by early 2025, with a low probability of rate hikes in November or December; Philadelphia Fed Reserve President Patrick Harker believes interest rates can remain untouched if economic conditions continue on their current path, as disinflation is taking shape and the Fed's interest rate policy is filtering into the economy; Mortgage rates have been affected by the federal government's increasing spending and smaller revenues, leading to a heavier impact on mortgage rates this fall.
A Washington Post article by Matthew Yglesias attempts to spin the narrative that Joe Biden's economy is doing well despite negative poll results, but fails to acknowledge the real economic hardships faced by Americans and the impact of Biden's policies on issues like inflation, the southern border crisis, and foreign policy.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed over 5%, reaching a 16-year high, indicating a potential shift in the US Treasury market and raising uncertainty about future yield levels.
Bill Gross, co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., believes that the U.S. economy is likely headed for a recession by the end of the year due to regional bank struggles and rising auto delinquencies, despite official data suggesting economic expansion. Gross is considering investing in shares of regional banks and believes that the Treasury curve will steepen as long-term rates catch up with short term rates.
A new survey reveals that the number of Canadians struggling with their monthly mortgage payments is increasing, with concerns of potential higher payments upon mortgage renewal also on the rise.
Bill Ackman, billionaire hedge fund titan, has ended his bet against 30-year Treasury bonds due to concerns about a slowing economy and increased geopolitical risks, shifting his main fear from inflation and higher interest rates to a potential recession; however, not everyone agrees with Ackman's outlook on inflation and interest rates, with some suggesting that wage growth and consumer spending could still lead to higher yields.
The Bank of Israel has left interest rates unchanged and revised its economic forecasts downwards due to the ongoing war with Hamas, which is impacting growth and weakening the shekel. The central bank now expects the economy to grow by 2.3% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, down from previous forecasts of 3% growth for both years. The bank is focused on stabilizing the markets and reducing uncertainty and has implemented measures to protect the shekel from collapse. The war has led to the closure of businesses and schools, and financial markets are pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts in the near future. The Bank of Israel's research department expects the war to increase the government deficit, and Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron emphasized the importance of fiscal support for the economy during this period.
A proposed plan suggests implementing a 2% minimum tax on billionaires' wealth, which could raise approximately $250 billion annually to address public investment, economic inequality, and tax compliance.
The inverted yield curve, which is currently flashing red, is causing concern among economists, as it historically predicts recessions with a delay of around six to twelve months, although it is not fool-proof. Despite the current strong economy, experts suggest recession-proofing one's finances by paying off debt, building up an emergency fund, and investing in recession-proof assets.
A global minimum tax of 2% on billionaires' wealth could generate $250 billion, which could be used for investments in healthcare, education, and climate policies, according to the EU Tax Observatory.
The recent surge in the 10-year Treasury yield could continue to rise due to factors such as global conflicts and the sustainability of US debt, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, suggesting investors may need to include these risks in the premium for holding long-term government debt.
Clean power generation employment increased in every state and the District of Columbia last year, with West Virginia experiencing a 19% increase, supporting the Biden administration's argument that renewable energy can create more jobs than the fossil fuel industry.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation is still "too high" and the path to reducing it will be challenging, with the Fed remaining committed to bringing it down to 2%. Despite some improvements, inflation remains far from the target, and the possibility of a rate hike in December or future meetings remains open. Achieving the Fed's inflation target will require sustained and constant decreases, which may not be possible until mid-next year. Higher interest rates will lead to increased costs for consumers, impacting their ability to make purchases and potentially causing cutbacks in other areas.
Inflation and record-high borrowing costs are causing a surge in auto loan delinquencies, with subprime borrowers defaulting at levels not seen in nearly 30 years, as interest rates rise to 22-year highs.
A new report by Raisin, a financial platform, has revealed that Philadelphians are among the most stressed about their finances in the United States, with 65% of respondents in the city feeling financially strained.
The Kenyan Revenue Authority (KRA) aims to incentivize and bring players in the informal sector into the tax net, recognizing its significant tax potential and importance in the country's labor force. KRA plans to develop policies in collaboration with the National Treasury to streamline and reduce the number of taxes imposed on the sector, while also training traders on the importance of tax compliance. The objective is to create a stable and predictable tax system that enhances voluntary tax compliance and supports the country's development agenda.
Downtown San Jose has rebounded strongly from the economic effects of the pandemic, with mobile phone activity reaching 96% of pre-COVID levels, ranking it among the top three urban cores in North America, according to research from the University of Toronto.
Canada's gross domestic product will be stagnant this quarter and grow at a slow pace in the first quarter of next year, with economists predicting that the country will narrowly avoid a recession but continue to face near-zero economic growth due to elevated interest rates.
Investors' concerns about a potential recession have increased as the war between Israel and Hamas escalates, with fears of the conflict spreading to neighboring nations and causing broader market volatility. Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni has raised the odds of a recession to 35%, citing geopolitical tensions.
A new study shows that the number of Canadians struggling with their monthly mortgage payments is increasing, leading to concerns about potential higher payments when it is time to renew with their bank.
A recession is expected to hit the US economy in the next nine months due to rising borrowing costs, a tapped out consumer, and ongoing labor strikes, according to Raymond James.
Leon Cooperman warns of sticky inflation, higher interest rates, and a potential recession due to senseless fiscal and monetary policies in the US, urging authorities to take action before causing a crisis.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury has reached 5% for the first time since 2007, which has implications for borrowing costs, investment prices, and overall economic activity both in the US and globally.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond has reached 5% for the first time in 14 years, which has significant implications for the U.S. government's borrowing costs, as well as the global financial system and various investments, potentially leading to layoffs and impacting inflation.
The average mortgage interest rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 8.01%, for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 7.17%, and for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.94%.
The European Central Bank staff will face a loss in purchasing power for the third straight year, despite the ECB predicting that wages in the euro zone will catch up with prices in 2024 and 2025.
The US Federal Reserve excluded seven wealthy individuals, including billionaires, from its public database of survey responses to maintain anonymity, as their data could not be obscured enough without rendering it useless.
India's monetary policy committee's decision to reinforce the 4% retail inflation target does not necessarily mean that interest rates will remain high for a long period, according to two external members of the committee. The focus now shifts towards bringing inflation to the target level.
China is planning to approve over 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in additional sovereign debt issuance in order to stimulate infrastructure spending and boost economic growth.
China is set to approve over 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in additional sovereign debt issuance to boost infrastructure spending and support economic growth.
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates on hold as the economy slows down, although analysts believe future rate hikes are possible due to high inflation; Lil Yachty's concert in Vancouver was cancelled due to safety concerns when the audience rushed onto the floor; a senior in Calgary sold his home due to interest rate hikes and now struggles to find affordable rentals; three arrests were made at Calgary protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict; many Canadian homeowners face higher monthly mortgage payments as their mortgages come up for renewal; Turkish President Erdogan has submitted a protocol for Sweden's admission into NATO; a judge in New Brunswick who ruled in a rent-reduction case owns an apartment building; a woman in British Columbia is accused of posing as a lawyer and charging for legal services without doing any work; the Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates steady amid a sluggish economy.
China's cabinet is prioritising the tackling of key risks and mounting debt in the country's economy, including restructuring small financial institutions and conducting better risk monitoring of large banks and local financing vehicles, as well as improving assessments and early warnings of debt risks for large enterprises such as Evergrande and Country Garden, according to a report presented by the People's Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng. The government aims to manage external financial risks by normalising audit cooperation with the United States and establishing an early-warning system for outbound investment.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes aimed at cooling the housing market have instead created an unprecedented and punishing real estate market with high prices, low supply, and lack of affordability. Mortgage rates have reached the highest they've been in over two decades, leading to fewer people putting their homes on the market and a decline in volume. Buyers and sellers have had to be creative and patient, with some opting for adjustable rate mortgages and sellers offering concessions. The market is characterized by high prices, low inventory, and the need for stability in rates.
Workers are no longer quitting their jobs at a higher rate than before the pandemic due to a decline in pay gains for job changers, indicating that job-hopping is not as financially rewarding as it used to be. Furthermore, the percentage of new hires in the labor market has decreased across various industries, suggesting a slowdown in job churn.
The resumption of student loan repayments is not having as negative of an impact on the economy as anticipated, as payments have cooled and households are able to make them relatively easily due to favorable household balance sheets.
New figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that the typical private-renting household in Northern Ireland spent a quarter of its gross income on rent last year, with low-income households spending over a third of their income on rent.
Almost half of Russians say their salary doesn't cover basic spending, marking a 20% increase in the past two years, as Russia diverts fiscal resources to fund the war in Ukraine, according to a survey by recruiter Headhunter.
Argentina's ruling Peronist coalition performed well in the general election, setting the stage for a run-off vote between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and far-right radical Javier Milei, leading to policy uncertainty and potential volatility in Argentine assets.
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged as the economy stagnates, but it may signal the possibility of future rate hikes due to inflation exceeding its target.
Growing tensions in the U.S.-China relationship, as well as concerns over employee availability and fair treatment, are causing U.S. businesses to cut back on their China exposure and shift investments to other countries, with Mexico surpassing China as the top destination for foreign direct investment by U.S. firms.
The US federal deficit has doubled to nearly $2 trillion, which has raised concerns among economists about the sustainability of government spending and the rising costs of borrowing money to cover the deficit. Both Republicans and Democrats have different approaches to addressing the deficit, but neither party's plan is considered sufficient to solve the problem.
The European Union is working to reform its fiscal rules before the end of the year, facing challenges in areas such as debt reduction, reforms and investments, enforcement, and institutional balance.
A report by the EU Tax Observatory suggests implementing a minimum 2% tax rate on billionaires' global wealth to address the issue of some wealthy individuals paying little to no tax, which could raise $250 billion annually.
The median American family needs a net worth of $2.6 million to be considered wealthy, but Americans believe they would need to earn $483,000 per year to feel rich, according to surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve and Bankrate. Additionally, the Charles Schwab Modern Wealth Survey found that wealthy Americans have an average net worth of $560,000, suggesting that feelings of wealth can exist at various income levels. The term "millionaire" still holds prestige, with $1 million in investments being considered high net worth, but financial well-being is ultimately determined by one's ability to cover expenses, meet goals, and withstand financial shocks.
India's fiscal position is strong with steady revenue growth, and headline inflation is expected to remain within the target range, according to the government's monthly economic review.
Around 77% of U.S. employees still commute to work, with 124 million workers on the road in 2022, despite the increase in remote work during the pandemic, and the rising costs of vehicle ownership are adding to the burden.
A new report from Restaurants Canada reveals that one-third of restaurants in the country are operating at a loss, signaling potential upheaval in the industry due to rising costs of ingredients, insurance, and wages, despite overall growth in total foodservice sales.