### Summary
The majority of economists believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again and may even cut them by the end of March, due to positive economic indicators and low unemployment.
### Facts
- 90% of economists polled expect the Fed to keep interest rates in the 5.25-5.50% range at its September meeting.
- Roughly 80% of economists expect no further interest rate increases this year.
- The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is not expected to reach its 2% target until at least 2025.
- Confidence in the economy's ability to avoid a major downturn has led to expectations that interest rates will remain higher for a longer period, causing fluctuations in bond markets.
- 23 economists predict one more rate increase this year, while two expect two more increases to 5.75-6.00%.
- A majority of 95 economists expect rates to decrease at least once by mid-2024, but there is no agreement on the timing of the first cut.
- Nearly three-quarters of economists believe that shelter costs, a main driver of inflation, will decrease in the coming months.
- The real interest rate may be adjusted by the Fed based on inflation, which could prompt a rate reduction next year rather than a stimulus.
Source: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/futures-touch-fifers-hopes-us-fed-rate-cut-rise-boosted-2019-08-23/)
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields reach a 10-month high as Wall Street experiences losses and investors grapple with the potential for longer-lasting high interest rates and a struggling Chinese economy.
Surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing concern among investors as they wonder how much it will impact the rally in stocks and speculative assets, with the S&P 500, technology sector, bitcoin, and high-growth names all experiencing losses; rising rates are making it more difficult for borrowers and increasing the appeal of risk-free Treasury yields.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is rising to its highest level since 2007, and this is due in part to reduced demand from foreign countries, such as Japan and China, who are diversifying their investments away from U.S. Treasurys.
Despite the inverted yield curve, which traditionally predicts an economic downturn, the US economy has remained strong due to factors such as fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts and a lag time before interest rate hikes impact the economy, but some bond market experts believe the yield curve will eventually prove to be a good indicator for the market and the economy.
Market optimism around the US economy may decline as recent shifts in the Treasury yield curve indicate a potential trigger for a correction or rapid unwind in positions, with investors closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech.
The recent sell-off in US bonds has led to a rise in the yield-to-duration ratio, indicating that yields would need to increase significantly to generate losses, providing a potential floor for the struggling market.
Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in over a week due to concerns about job creation and consumer confidence, leading bond traders to lower the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year.
The 10-year Treasury bond is on course for a third consecutive year of losses, which is unprecedented in 250 years of U.S. history, as the bond's return stands at negative 0.3% so far in 2023 after significant declines in the past two years, due to factors such as rising inflation and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The 10-year Treasury bond is a "screaming buy" for investors as the yield is likely to fall over the next year due to the Fed's success in curbing inflation, according to BMO Capital Markets head of US rates strategy Ian Lyngen.
U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors assessed the impact of recent economic data and speculated on the future of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
U.S. stock futures decline as bond yields rise despite weak economic news from China and Europe.
Analysts at BMO and UBS predict that the yield on the 10-year Treasury will surpass the S&P 500 earnings yield, indicating a potential fall in stocks and a rise in bond prices.
U.S. Treasury yields dropped as concerns over potential interest rate hikes grew due to recent economic data, including lower jobless claims and sustained inflationary pressures.
Global equities slide and the 10-year Treasury yield remains near a 16-year high as rising concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and other headwinds weigh on the US consumer and economy.
The Federal Reserve's continued message of higher interest rates is expected to impact Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, with the 10-year Treasury yield predicted to experience a slight increase and the U.S. dollar expected to edge higher.
Treasury yields rise and stocks fall as traders anticipate longer-lasting higher rates to prevent inflation, while Brent oil briefly surpasses $95 a barrel; the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates is eagerly awaited by investors.
U.S. Treasury yields dip slightly as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and guidance, while the 10-year yield remains near 16-year highs.
The 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since November 2007 as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve's rate announcement, despite expectations that the Fed will maintain its current rate target.
Treasury yields are expected to rise in the future, which could have a negative impact on the stock market.
U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors considered future interest rates and awaited economic data, with expectations that rates will remain higher and uncertainties surrounding a potential government shutdown and the upcoming Fed meetings.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to a 15-year high, while key reports on new home sales and consumer confidence fell short of expectations, leading investors to consider the potential for interest rate hikes and a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5% hinges on investors' belief in a strengthening economy and the Fed maintaining high interest rates, according to Bank of America researchers.
U.S. Treasury yields remained stable as investors monitored economic reports and expressed concerns about the future of monetary policy and high interest rates.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell on Friday after the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure showed signs of easing, pulling back from a 15-year high.
Owners of 10-year Treasury notes could earn up to 20% in total returns in a year if the U.S. economy experiences a recession, as U.S. debt may rally significantly due to investors seeking safety in the treasury market.
The rally in the U.S. dollar and higher U.S. bond yields have led to a decline in gold prices, with the metal seeing its worst week, month, and quarterly losses, as the Federal Reserve maintains its restrictive monetary policy and investors anticipate further weakness in the gold market.
U.S. stocks and bonds are falling due to another surge in Treasury yields, leading to anxiety among investors who fear that the Fed will hold interest rates higher for longer if the labor market remains strong.
The 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since 2007 as investors consider the state of the economy and await key labor market data that could inform Federal Reserve monetary policy.
The article discusses the recent rise in Treasury yields and explores the positive aspects of higher bond yields.
Treasury yields dropped from multiyear highs after new jobs data indicated a potential weakening labor market, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may halt interest rate hikes and leading to a relief rally in stocks.
Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are rising uncontrollably, causing ripple effects in financial markets, as the 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since August 2007, resulting in plummeting bond prices and impacting various assets such as stocks and gold. The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to factors such as the U.S. government's expanding budget deficit, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program, and its restrictive stance on interest rates.
Falling bond prices in the US, resulting in higher Treasury yields, suggest that a recession might be approaching, according to investor Jeff Gundlach, who is closely watching the upcoming jobs report for further signs.
The sell-off in Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years or more, which has caused yields to soar, is surpassing some of the most severe market downturns in history, with losses of 46% and 53% since March 2020, comparable to stock-market losses during the dot-com bubble burst and the 2008 financial crisis.
Federal Reserve officials are not concerned about the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields and believe it could actually be beneficial in combating inflation. They also stated that if the labor market cools and inflation returns to the desired target, interest rates can remain steady. Higher long-term borrowing costs can slow the economy and ease inflation pressures. However, if the rise in yields leads to a sharp economic slowdown or unemployment surge, the Fed will react accordingly.
Federal Reserve officials view the increasing yields on long-term US Treasury debt as a sign that their tight-money policies are effective, although they do not see it as a cause of concern for the economy at this point.
The Federal Reserve is expected to continue reducing its bond holdings despite the recent surge in bond yields, as key measures of volatility and liquidity in the bond market are not indicating a significant risk, and higher credit costs align with the central bank's goal of restraining growth and lowering inflation.
Despite the ongoing bear market in Treasury bonds, certain sectors of the fixed-income market, such as bank loans, short-term junk bonds, and floating-rate notes, are performing well in 2023, offering some protection from the losses in long-term Treasuries, which have slumped 46% since March 2020. The future performance of long-dated bonds depends on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the resilience of the economy.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to reach 6%, driven by the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes and strong economic data, according to TS Lombard.
The collapse in Treasury bonds is one of the worst market crashes in history, with experts predicting that a recession could hit in 2024 and 10-year Treasury yields could breach 5.5%.
