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Bond Carnage Could Lead to Big Gains if Recession Hits

  • Carnage in the bond market in September could allow for big returns on 10-year Treasurys if recession hits, per UBS.

  • 10-year yields near 4.5% could see total returns of 14-20% in a year if economy stumbles.

  • Base case is 10-year yield falling to 3.5% in 12 months; could hit 2.75% with U.S. recession.

  • Treasury rally could boost ETFs like TLT, AGG that track bonds.

  • Much depends on if high rates cause household, corporate and government borrowing costs to spike.

marketwatch.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields reach a 10-month high as Wall Street experiences losses and investors grapple with the potential for longer-lasting high interest rates and a struggling Chinese economy.
Bond selling has driven 10-year Treasury yields to 16-year highs, possibly due to the timing of the Bank of Japan's signal to allow higher yields and speculation on the upcoming Federal Reserve symposium, with implications for risk appetite and a focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is rising to its highest level since 2007, and this is due in part to reduced demand from foreign countries, such as Japan and China, who are diversifying their investments away from U.S. Treasurys.
The 10-year Treasury bond is on course for a third consecutive year of losses, which is unprecedented in 250 years of U.S. history, as the bond's return stands at negative 0.3% so far in 2023 after significant declines in the past two years, due to factors such as rising inflation and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The 10-year Treasury bond is a "screaming buy" for investors as the yield is likely to fall over the next year due to the Fed's success in curbing inflation, according to BMO Capital Markets head of US rates strategy Ian Lyngen.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is predicted to decrease significantly for the remainder of this year and in 2024, as economists anticipate the Federal Reserve to loosen its monetary policy and inflation to fall.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's recession probability tool, which examines the difference in yield between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and three-month bill, suggests a 60.83% probability of a U.S. recession through August 2024, indicating that stocks may move lower in the coming months and quarters. However, historical data shows that U.S. recessions are typically short-lived, and long-term investors have little to worry about.
The Federal Reserve's continued message of higher interest rates is expected to impact Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, with the 10-year Treasury yield predicted to experience a slight increase and the U.S. dollar expected to edge higher.
U.S. households now hold more Treasury securities than at any point in the past 25 years, as the rise in U.S. yields makes them attractive to investors.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to a 15-year high, while key reports on new home sales and consumer confidence fell short of expectations, leading investors to consider the potential for interest rate hikes and a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5% hinges on investors' belief in a strengthening economy and the Fed maintaining high interest rates, according to Bank of America researchers.
The 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since 2007 as investors consider the state of the economy and await key labor market data that could inform Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Treasury yields continued to rise, reaching the highest levels since before the 2007-2009 recession, as investors demand more compensation to hold Treasuries and the bond-market selloff deepens, which has impacted stock markets and wiped out gains.
Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are rising uncontrollably, causing ripple effects in financial markets, as the 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since August 2007, resulting in plummeting bond prices and impacting various assets such as stocks and gold. The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to factors such as the U.S. government's expanding budget deficit, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program, and its restrictive stance on interest rates.
U.S. Treasury yields stabilize after reaching multi-year highs as investors analyze economic data, particularly the slowing private job growth in September, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes may soon come to an end.
Violent moves in the bond market have sparked fears of a recession and raised concerns about housing, banks, and the fiscal sustainability of the U.S. government, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.8% and climbing steadily in recent weeks, its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
The sell-off in Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years or more, which has caused yields to soar, is surpassing some of the most severe market downturns in history, with losses of 46% and 53% since March 2020, comparable to stock-market losses during the dot-com bubble burst and the 2008 financial crisis.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to reach 6%, driven by the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes and strong economic data, according to TS Lombard.
Long-term bond yields have surged as the Federal Reserve reduces its bond portfolio and the U.S. Treasury sells debt, contrary to the expectations of Wall Street and investors worldwide, but a research paper written by a University of Michigan student six years ago accurately predicted this scenario.
The collapse in Treasury bonds is one of the worst market crashes in history, with experts predicting that a recession could hit in 2024 and 10-year Treasury yields could breach 5.5%.
Bond investors are favoring notes due in one to five years as Treasuries head for a third straight annual decline, offering protection from the current sell-off and positioning themselves for a potential recession.
Goldman Sachs economists warn that the recent surge in US Treasury yields will hamper economic growth and pose financial risks, though the bank does not predict a recession; they estimate a 0.5 percentage-point blow to US GDP over the next year.
Bond market strategists are maintaining their predictions that U.S. Treasury yields will decrease by the end of the year and that 10-year yields have reached their peak, despite recent sell-offs and a strong U.S. economy.
UBS advises investors to focus on bonds rather than stocks, predicting that the 10-year US Treasury yield will drop to 3.5% by mid-2024 due to slowing growth and the Federal Reserve's easing of policy, offering bondholders returns of around 13%.
The growing confidence in the U.S. economy's ability to avoid a recession has led to another selloff of government debt, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield towards 5%, its highest level since 2007.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is poised to reach a psychologically significant yield level of 5%, which hasn't been seen since 2007.
The relentless selling of U.S. government bonds has caused Treasury yields to reach their highest level in over 15 years, impacting stocks, real estate, and the global financial system as a whole.
Rise in long-term Treasury yields may put an end to historic interest rate hikes that were meant to lower inflation, as 10-year Treasury yields approach 5% and 30-year fixed rate mortgages inch towards 8%. This could result in economic pain for American consumers who will face higher car loans, credit card rates, and student debt. However, it could also help bring down prices and lower inflation towards the Federal Reserve's target goal.
The relentless selling of U.S. government bonds has driven Treasury yields to their highest level in over a decade, impacting stocks, real estate, and other markets.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield came close to reaching 5 percent for the first time in 16 years, causing concerns among investors and potentially impacting the economy and stock market.
U.S. stock markets ended lower as treasury yields continued to climb, with the 10-year note reaching its highest level in 16 years, while Asian markets also saw declines.
The 10-year Treasury yield nears a psychologically significant 5% mark, drawing attention in the market.
Investors must readjust their asset-class decisions as the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond reaches 5%, impacting equity markets and potentially leading to a decline in stock prices.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is close to 5%, the highest level in 16 years, and historical trends suggest that it is in line with expectations for the economy; however, there is a less than 1% probability of it climbing above 5.5% unless there is a significant increase in inflation expectations.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond has reached 5% for the first time in 14 years, which has significant implications for the U.S. government's borrowing costs, as well as the global financial system and various investments, potentially leading to layoffs and impacting inflation.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury has reached 5% for the first time since 2007, which has implications for borrowing costs, investment prices, and overall economic activity both in the US and globally.
The recent surge in the 10-year Treasury yield could continue to rise due to factors such as global conflicts and the sustainability of US debt, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, suggesting investors may need to include these risks in the premium for holding long-term government debt.
The sharp sell-off in the bond market, driven by factors such as stronger economic data and the government's growing debt levels, has significant implications for borrowing costs and the economy as a whole, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note reaching its highest level since 2007.
Ten-year Treasury yields surpassing 5% means higher interest rates for mortgages and car loans, putting a strain on the US economy, but despite the warning signs, the US economy still appears to be growing with the S&P 500 up 10% this year and the Nasdaq rallying over 20%.
Looming risks to the US economy include a resurgence in inflation, the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 5.25%, and deteriorating credit conditions.
The 10-year Treasury yield is likely to continue rising past 5% as the yield curve is expected to de-invert, according to forecaster Jim Bianco, driven by interest rate fears and the Fed's commitment to keeping rates higher-for-longer.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen above 5% for the first time since 2007, leading to concerns about increased borrowing costs across markets and potential impacts on the economy if bond yields continue to rise at this pace.
A crash in the bond market has led to panic on Wall Street, with Treasury prices plummeting and 10-year yields surpassing 5% for the first time in 16 years, which has significant implications for stocks, the economy, and everyday individuals.
Investors are turning to US Treasury bonds with yields near 5%, the highest since 2007, for healthy, low-risk returns as the stock market remains volatile.