### Summary
The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages, suggesting that the stock market is not unanchored from reality. However, the performance of long-term US Treasuries has been poor, with even 10-year Treasuries resulting in losses over the last five years. Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain whether it will be enough to bring down inflation rates.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages.
- The performance of long-term US Treasuries has been weak, resulting in losses for investors even after accounting for coupon payments.
- Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain if it will bring down inflation rates.
- The nature of the stock market rally suggests that investors are still searching for buying opportunities rather than thinking about selling.
- Energy, industrials, and financials have become favored sectors, while technology stocks have started to decline.
- The Chinese economy is struggling, with retail sales and industrial production growth slowing down.
- The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about inflation but also noted downside risks to the economy.
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Treasury yields reach new decade highs in Asia as traders become concerned about the duration of elevated interest rates, causing a dampening effect on stocks, particularly in China, even as some markets attempt to rebound.
US bond-market selloff continues as resilient economy prompts investors to anticipate elevated interest rates even after the Federal Reserve finishes its hikes, leading to a 16-year high in 10-year yields and increased inflation expectations.
Bond selling has driven 10-year Treasury yields to 16-year highs, possibly due to the timing of the Bank of Japan's signal to allow higher yields and speculation on the upcoming Federal Reserve symposium, with implications for risk appetite and a focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
The 10-year Treasury bond is on course for a third consecutive year of losses, which is unprecedented in 250 years of U.S. history, as the bond's return stands at negative 0.3% so far in 2023 after significant declines in the past two years, due to factors such as rising inflation and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is predicted to decrease significantly for the remainder of this year and in 2024, as economists anticipate the Federal Reserve to loosen its monetary policy and inflation to fall.
The Federal Reserve's continued message of higher interest rates is expected to impact Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, with the 10-year Treasury yield predicted to experience a slight increase and the U.S. dollar expected to edge higher.
U.S. equities fell as the Fed began its policy meeting and the 10-year Treasury yield reached a 16-year high, with Walt Disney shares dropping after announcing increased spending on theme parks and cruises, and Cboe Global Markets shares rising following a CEO change.
U.S. Treasury yields dip slightly as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and guidance, while the 10-year yield remains near 16-year highs.
The 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since November 2007 as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve's rate announcement, despite expectations that the Fed will maintain its current rate target.
U.S. households now hold more Treasury securities than at any point in the past 25 years, as the rise in U.S. yields makes them attractive to investors.
Renewed surge in long-term Treasury yields stifles world markets as Federal Reserve officials hold firm on one more rate rise and a government shutdown looms, leading to spikes in the US dollar and putting pressure on global financial stability.
Mounting fears of rates staying elevated for longer sent jitters through global risk assets, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to a peak not seen since the early stages of the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the dollar to a 10-month high.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to a 15-year high, while key reports on new home sales and consumer confidence fell short of expectations, leading investors to consider the potential for interest rate hikes and a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5% hinges on investors' belief in a strengthening economy and the Fed maintaining high interest rates, according to Bank of America researchers.
U.S. Treasury yields remained stable as investors monitored economic reports and expressed concerns about the future of monetary policy and high interest rates.
The recent surge in bond yields, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting levels not seen in over 15 years, is impacting the stock market as investors shift their focus to safer bond investments, which offer higher yields and less volatility than stocks.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell on Friday after the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure showed signs of easing, pulling back from a 15-year high.
The major stock indexes are expected to open lower as the 10-year Treasury yield hits a 16-year high, with investors monitoring employment data for potential impact on interest rates; meanwhile, stock futures in Asia and Europe slumped as the Federal Reserve's message of higher interest rates reverberates worldwide.
The Federal Reserve's shift towards higher interest rates is causing significant turmoil in financial markets, with major averages falling and Treasury yields reaching their highest levels in 16 years, resulting in increased costs of capital for companies and potential challenges for banks and consumers.
Treasury yields continued to rise, reaching the highest levels since before the 2007-2009 recession, as investors demand more compensation to hold Treasuries and the bond-market selloff deepens, which has impacted stock markets and wiped out gains.
Treasury yields dropped from multiyear highs after new jobs data indicated a potential weakening labor market, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may halt interest rate hikes and leading to a relief rally in stocks.
Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are rising uncontrollably, causing ripple effects in financial markets, as the 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since August 2007, resulting in plummeting bond prices and impacting various assets such as stocks and gold. The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to factors such as the U.S. government's expanding budget deficit, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program, and its restrictive stance on interest rates.
Long-term yields on Treasuries have reached levels not seen since the global financial crisis, driven by expectations of higher interest rates, strong U.S. economic data, and concerns about inflation, leading to a sell-off in bonds.
US 10-year yields are higher than those of Greece, Spain, Germany, and Japan, despite the fact that these countries have higher inflation rates and worse credit ratings, leading to concerns about the divergence being divorced from fundamentals.
Treasury yields were mixed to slightly lower as the 10-year rate slipped from its 16-year high after U.S. jobless claims inched up, while the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for September is expected to determine the next major move in bonds.
The sell-off in Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years or more, which has caused yields to soar, is surpassing some of the most severe market downturns in history, with losses of 46% and 53% since March 2020, comparable to stock-market losses during the dot-com bubble burst and the 2008 financial crisis.
Concerns surround the upcoming release of U.S. payrolls data and how hawkish the Federal Reserve needs to be, as global markets experience a period of calm following a tumultuous week that saw Treasury yields rise to 16-year highs, crude oil prices drop, equities decline, and the yen strengthen. Japanese government bond yields are also causing concern, as investor sentiment towards the Bank of Japan's stimulus remains low.
Despite the ongoing bear market in Treasury bonds, certain sectors of the fixed-income market, such as bank loans, short-term junk bonds, and floating-rate notes, are performing well in 2023, offering some protection from the losses in long-term Treasuries, which have slumped 46% since March 2020. The future performance of long-dated bonds depends on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the resilience of the economy.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to reach 6%, driven by the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes and strong economic data, according to TS Lombard.
Long-term bond yields have surged as the Federal Reserve reduces its bond portfolio and the U.S. Treasury sells debt, contrary to the expectations of Wall Street and investors worldwide, but a research paper written by a University of Michigan student six years ago accurately predicted this scenario.
The collapse in Treasury bonds is one of the worst market crashes in history, with experts predicting that a recession could hit in 2024 and 10-year Treasury yields could breach 5.5%.
Treasury debt losses over the past three years have resulted in the worst bear market for the U.S. in its nearly 250-year history, with long-duration Treasury yields reaching their highest levels in over 16 years, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.
Treasury yields dropped sharply as traders priced in a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, with the 2-year rate ending at its lowest level in over a month and the 10-year and 30-year rates also hitting lows.
Treasury yields have fallen from their recent highs, but the market's "pain trade" may not be over yet, as weak economic data and the upcoming inflation report could keep yields from coming down and staying down.
Bond market strategists are maintaining their predictions that U.S. Treasury yields will decrease by the end of the year and that 10-year yields have reached their peak, despite recent sell-offs and a strong U.S. economy.
Long-dated Treasury yields heading back towards 5% has led to a selloff of government debt and a rise in the dollar, undercutting the Federal Reserve's arguments for avoiding another rate hike.
UBS advises investors to focus on bonds rather than stocks, predicting that the 10-year US Treasury yield will drop to 3.5% by mid-2024 due to slowing growth and the Federal Reserve's easing of policy, offering bondholders returns of around 13%.
