### Summary
Gold prices have continued to decline due to rising US treasury yields and a stronger dollar. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed concerns about inflation and the potential need for additional interest rate hikes. The outlook for gold prices remains subdued ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech.
### Facts
- 📉 Gold prices have declined for the fourth consecutive week, breaking below the significant threshold of $1,900 per troy ounce and reaching their lowest point since March 2023.
- 📈 The continuous rise in US treasury yields and the dollar index has contributed to the decline in gold prices.
- 📊 US economic indicators, such as retail sales and manufacturing production, have outperformed expectations, highlighting resilient consumer spending and propelling the dollar index.
- 💸 The FOMC meeting minutes revealed concerns about inflation and the potential need for additional interest rate hikes, although two Fed officials favored keeping rates unchanged or pursuing a rate cut.
- 🇨🇳 Weakening sentiment in China and diverging monetary policies have also contributed to the strengthening dollar.
- 📆 The upcoming week will focus on flash manufacturing PMI figures and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to address the economic outlook.
### Potential Implications
- ⬇️ Gold prices are expected to remain subdued in anticipation of Powell's speech, as elevated yields and a stronger dollar continue to impact the market.
### Summary
The Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole is set to take place, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech expected to be closely watched for clues about inflation and rate increases. Other key events include speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and BRICS summit in South Africa.
### Facts
- The minutes from the July Fed policy meeting showed that most Fed officials saw significant upside risk to inflation, which may require more tightening.
- Disagreements among Fed officials about the way forward have emerged, with two members favoring holding rates steady.
- Key data points have shown price and wage pressures continue to dissipate, which should support the case for an end to rate increases.
- However, indicators of labor-market activity and consumer spending have remained strong, which may keep policymakers uneasy about easing inflation.
- Clarity on how Fed Chair Jerome Powell is weighing these developments is a critical question.
- The theme of this year's symposium is "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy."
- Purchasing-manager readings may show a divide between economic activity in the euro area and the US.
- BRICS summit in South Africa will discuss the potential expansion of the bloc.
- Central banks in Turkey, Iceland, and Zambia are expected to hike rates, while South Korea and Indonesia may hold and Sri Lanka may cut rates.
- The US economic data calendar is light, with reports on home sales, new-home purchases, and orders for durable goods.
- Canada's retail sales for June are expected to show a slowdown in spending.
- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak in Jackson Hole, with focus on potential hints for September.
- Flash PMIs for the euro area, Germany, and France are predicted to show dismal readings.
- UK public finances figures are likely to show the budget deficit above last year's levels.
- Turkey's monetary policy committee is poised to raise its benchmark rate for a third straight meeting.
- South Africa hosts the annual BRICS summit, where discussions on the potential expansion of the bloc will be held.
- South Africa's inflation is likely to slow in July, while Zambia is expected to raise borrowing costs.
- China is expected to cut its prime lending rates to support the economy, but doubts remain about its effectiveness without wider stimulus measures.
- South Korea's early trade figures for August will offer insight into world commerce and tech demand.
- Thailand's GDP data are expected to show a slowing of growth.
- The Bank of Korea and Bank Indonesia are expected to hold rates.
- Sri Lanka may cut rates to beat back a surge in real rates caused by a decline in the inflation rate.
- Argentina's Economy Minister will meet with the IMF, whose board will vote on a $7.5 billion disbursement to the country.
- Peru's output data are set to confirm that the economy is in recession.
- Mexico's policy meeting minutes are likely to reiterate no more rate hikes.
- Brazil's mid-August inflation print will shape market expectations on the central bank's next policy move.
Note: This text is edited for brevity and clarity
### Summary
Investors will be watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the economic outlook and future interest rate hikes. China's property crisis and its impact on the economy, PMI data from the Eurozone and UK, and oil prices will also be key factors to watch.
### Facts
- 🔍 Investors will be looking to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole for insight into the economic outlook and the future path of interest rates.
- 💹 Markets will be focused on Powell's speech and earnings from chip designer Nvidia to gauge the interest rate outlook and market sentiment.
- 🇨🇳 Expectations are rising for China to cut the loan prime rate amid concerns of a deepening crisis in the country's property sector.
- 📊 PMI data from the Eurozone and UK will offer insights into potential interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
- ⛽️ Oil prices declined last week due to concerns over global demand and the worsening property crisis in China.
Note: The use of emojis has been replaced with corresponding keywords.
### Summary
The world's top central bankers, including Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell, are facing a fragile backdrop at this year's Jackson Hole conference, with uncertainties about the effectiveness of interest rate hikes, the duration of tight monetary policy, and the potential for a European recession.
### Facts
- Even in the US, which has relatively positive economic numbers, two-thirds of respondents in a Bloomberg survey believe the Fed has yet to conquer inflation.
- Global government bond yields have surged to the highest levels in over a decade, reflecting expectations that central banks will continue to raise interest rates.
- Market participants believe that if interest rates remain high for a longer period, stock prices may decrease, and firms could face increased debt servicing costs.
- Monetary policy decisions made by central banks could have a delayed impact on economies, potentially leading to a recession or financial instability.
- The survey split 50-50 on the chance of a US downturn over the next 12 months, while 80% of respondents expect a euro-area recession.
- The key question for central banks, including the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB), is "how long" interest rates will need to stay elevated.
- The Bank of England may need to take further action to address inflationary pressures in the UK.
- The ECB may decide to either raise rates or pause based on President Christine Lagarde's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole.
- There is debate about the timing of future rate cuts, including the likelihood of the ECB cutting rates before the Fed.
- Uncertainties in the global economy include the potential impact of a China downturn, Russia's conflict in Ukraine, US budget deficits, and energy price spikes in Europe.
Note: This content is fictional and generated by OpenAI's GPT-3 model.
### Summary
- European stocks rebound after a drop last week, while bond yields rise ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole event.
- China's smaller-than-expected rate cuts and weak economic data disappointed investors.
### Facts
- 📈 European stocks edge higher after last week's rout.
- 📉 China stocks hit a 9-month low as rate easing underwhelms.
- China's central bank trims its one-year lending rate by 10 basis points, while leaving its five-year rate unchanged.
- Expectation remains for further stimulus from China.
- Asian shares decline due to disappointment, with Chinese blue chips falling to a nine-month low.
- Energy companies outperform as oil prices rise.
- Oil prices edge higher after a seven-week winning streak.
- Bond market sell-off leads to higher government borrowing costs.
- U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 30-year yield touching a fresh 12-year high.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference is the key event for the week.
- Markets anticipate that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address rising yields and strong economic data.
- Polls indicate that a majority of analysts believe the Fed is done hiking rates.
- Traders bet on a just under 40% chance of a final Fed hike by November.
- U.S. dollar trades flat after five weeks of gains.
- Gold prices affected negatively by the rise of the dollar and yields.
- Prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supported by a potential strike at Australian offshore facilities.
- Dutch payments processor Adyen's shares drop amid concerns over weak earnings.
- Earnings from Nvidia will be closely watched.
Note: The given content contains parts that do not match the provided date range.
Bitcoin (BTC) faces uncertainty and fear in the market as it struggles to recover from a 10% crash, with short-term holders experiencing increasing unrealized losses and on-chain transactions setting multiyear highs. Traders are cautious about the outlook, but historical patterns and upcoming events, such as the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, may provide opportunities for recovery.
The upcoming Jackson Hole summit hosted by the Kansas City Fed is expected to focus on "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy," with Chair Powell likely to give some bullish relief in his comments, indicating that the rate hiking cycle is over and that cuts could come sooner than expected, resulting in a potential market rally.
Bitcoin may experience a period of stagnation before turning bullish again, according to crypto analyst Jason Pizzino, who believes that the cryptocurrency could remain in its current pattern for the next couple of months before potentially surging in late 2021 or early 2024.
Key social metrics suggest that cryptocurrency markets may soon rebound, as the use of the term "bear market" has reached an 11-week high on social media platforms, which historically indicates that price rises are likely; additionally, deep-pocketed investors are accumulating Bitcoin again, contributing to a recent rally.
Bitcoin remains on track for a massive bull cycle despite recent price decline, as indicated by broader indicators of its price patterns and the use of logarithmic growth curves. The 200-week moving average is seen as less significant as a key price support level for Bitcoin, and the analyst is also looking for an entry point for Ethereum.
The current Bitcoin cycle appears to be lining up with previous cycles, showing similarities in the bear market drawdown phase and the convergence of prices after crashes, suggesting that more drawdown may be coming for the price.
Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal believes that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a massive rally, based on the historical volatility of the cryptocurrency dropping below 20, a level that has preceded significant price increases in the past. Pal also notes that Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands, a volatility indicator, are the tightest they have ever been, further indicating the potential for a strong upward movement. Ethereum is also highlighted as trading within a bullish pattern despite recent market corrections.
The US Federal Reserve's actions will determine the start of the next Bitcoin bull market, depending on their monetary policy decisions and willingness to hold interest rates higher for longer.
The Federal Reserve meeting in September may hold the key to the end of the tightening cycle, as markets anticipate a rate hike in November, aligning with the Fed's thinking on its peak rate. However, disagreement among Fed policymakers regarding the strength of the economy and inflation raises questions about the clarity and certainty of the Fed's guidance. Market skeptics remain uncertain about the possibility of a "soft landing," with sustained economic expansion following a period of tightening.
Summary: The stock market shows signs of a rally, with major indexes surpassing the 50-day line and Treasury yields decreasing, growth stocks are leading, and software companies like Salesforce, MongoDB, and CrowdStrike reporting positive earnings; meanwhile, Amazon and Shopify announce a deeper partnership, and Tesla unveils an upgraded Model 3 while also lowering prices. Additionally, a near-perfect jobs report and tamed inflation data suggest that the Fed may not continue with rate hikes.
Bitcoin is likely to experience a deep corrective move in September, with a potential drop of over 10% from current levels, according to crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen, who also suggests that the altcoin markets may see a resurgence next year due to a confluence of macro tailwinds.
The US Dollar is expected to trade sideways at the start of the week, with no major drivers or data points to monitor until markets open on Tuesday. The focus for the week will be on Wednesday's release of the Services PMI survey and several central bank speeches leading up to the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 20. Additionally, the article provides information on central banks and their role in monetary policy and interest rates.
Bitcoin has been on a bull run since the Federal Reserve's $25 billion program to stabilize the US banking system, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicts that the market will respond in the next six to 12 months.
Bitcoin's four-year cycles may not be directly linked to halving events, as an alternative theory suggests that they are more closely correlated with the global M2 money supply and macro patterns. However, analysts still anticipate a rally and new bull cycle following the next Bitcoin halving event in late 2024.
The United States Federal Reserve's financial woes and potential implications for cryptocurrency are discussed on the latest episode of "Macro Markets," highlighting challenges posed by inflation and the consequences of loose monetary policies during the pandemic.
Bitcoin's weak performance and its potential "double top" structure raise concerns of more downside, with predictions of new local lows; however, there are indications that Bitcoin may experience a major shakeout before rebounding to "fair value" and the 200-week EMA near $25,600 may offer some optimism; debate ensues over the possibility of Bitcoin filling the $20,000 CME futures gap; liquidity levels on BTC/USD markets continue to increase, adding to bearish predictions; ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on September 14 brings potential volatility to the market and may impact crypto market expectations.
Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino believes that Bitcoin's bull market cycle is underway and will be confirmed if it crosses the key level of $28,500.
Global monetary decisions over the next 36 hours may shape the rest of the year, as central banks grapple with a US push to maintain high interest rates and concerns over inflation and crude oil prices.
Bitcoin has the potential to rally and reach a new high in 2023, according to an analyst, who also states that the current price action looks constructive after a period of downward trend.
Bitcoin, ethereum, BNB, and XRP have experienced a strong price rally in 2023, but a small cryptocurrency has surpassed them, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions could impact the bitcoin price.
The positive momentum surrounding Bitcoin's price is fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates again this year, while market participants remain optimistic despite the strength of the United States Dollar Index.
The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is generating less attention than usual, indicating that the Fed's job of pursuing maximum employment and price stability is seen as successful, with labor market data and inflation trends supporting this view.
Bitcoin attempted a rally, reaching its highest price in three weeks, but quickly faced selling pressure, while the broader crypto market saw modest gains; attention turns to the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting for potential impact on monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting will focus on the central bank's expectations for key indicators such as interest rates, GDP, inflation, and unemployment, while many economists believe that the Fed may signal a pause in its rate-hiking cycle but maintain the possibility of future rate increases.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain steady interest rates at its two-day meeting, but investors will be focused on policymakers' economic forecasts, while metals prices remain mixed and U.S. stock markets anticipate the release of the Fed's policy projections.
Bitcoin price is expected to move higher and may attempt to push toward the 50% retracement level, while Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on September 28 may hint at another potential rate hike and the PCE Price Index on September 29 is unlikely to have a significant impact on the crypto markets, with the SEC likely to delay the approval of Hashdex's filing for the spot Bitcoin ETFs and the potential approval of the first Ethereum futures ETF on October 2.
The recent rallies in Bitcoin and altcoins could reverse abruptly, according to trader DonAlt, who believes that the market is rallying based on anticipation of Ethereum-based ETFs but warns that these catalysts may not be strong enough to sustain the rallies, especially considering the historical bearishness of crypto futures products.
The Federal Reserve and oil prices are in focus this week as the economic calendar remains busy, while the crypto market has experienced a surge in momentum over the weekend, with Bitcoin reaching its highest level since August 17.
Bitcoin's sharp rally on October 1 may have been influenced by a temporary agreement reached by US legislators to avert a government shutdown, combined with the historically strong performance of Bitcoin in October, while the US stock markets are also in a favorable position this month. However, the rising US dollar index could pose a challenge for the bulls in the cryptocurrency markets.
Bitcoin and gold are expected to thrive amidst fiscal problems in the US economy and a potential pivot from the Federal Reserve, according to macro investor Luke Gromen. Gromen also suggests that the launch of a gold-backed currency by the BRICS alliance may weaken the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Crypto strategist predicts that Bitcoin will enter a massive bull run and reach new all-time highs once it surpasses a key support level, but warns that bearish speculation from the stock market could decrease momentum.
Bitcoin's bull market is expected to reignite as the Federal Reserve is predicted to resume printing money, leading to a surge in Bitcoin's price, according to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.
Central banks' communication tone, measured by an index, shifted towards a more hawkish stance in early 2021 for the Fed and mid-2021 for the ECB, even before actual rate hikes, with changes in inflation outlook and monetary policy driving the shift, according to a study by the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Fed.
Bitcoin's upcoming halving event in April 2024 has generated high anticipation, with predictions of another massive rally and a possible surge past $100,000; however, past performance, supply and demand dynamics, and evidence from Litecoin suggest caution in relying solely on these predictions.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting may disappoint investors hoping for a shift in the central bank's hawkish monetary policy stance, as Treasury yields have already risen and some officials suggest less need for another rate hike in the current cycle.
The recent dovish comments by Fed officials have raised hopes of a pause in the rate hike cycle, similar to the situation in early 2019 when Bitcoin surged over 300%, suggesting a potential upside for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin and crypto markets are following a cyclical pattern, with bull markets typically occurring after halving events, but a significant pullback is anticipated in the period leading up to the next halving event in April or May 2023, potentially causing a drop in BTC prices.
