The Philippine peso is expected to trade sideways against the US dollar this week in anticipation of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell's speech and following the decision by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep borrowing costs unchanged.
While strategic competitors in emerging markets are calling for change and the share of the US dollar held as official foreign exchange reserves has declined, it is unlikely that there will be a major shift in the US dollar's role as the central global currency due to the stability and reputation of the US government, as well as the challenges and limitations of other options like the renminbi.
Summary: The ongoing slide in US Treasuries is expected to support the dollar and pose a headwind for risk assets, according to analysts, while flash PMIs for August and the 15th BRICS summit will be closely watched this week.
The market is trading sideways with some coins experiencing slight rises while others continue to fall.
Investors will have a lot to consider this week as they analyze economic indicators such as US nonfarm payrolls, wage growth, and inflation, as well as Eurozone inflation numbers and central bank commentary, all of which could impact policy decisions and market sentiment.
Traders are expecting a volatile start to the week as policymakers from the US and Europe indicate that interest rates will likely remain higher for a longer period of time, leading to increased yields on bonds and a weakening of the yen.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
U.S. futures are up on the first trading day of September, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all showing gains, while the recent data suggests that the U.S. labor market is cooling down and the Fed may pause the rate hike cycle in September.
The week has been driven by macroeconomic data, but the threat of economic contraction is not currently imminent, with the US Ten-Year Note yielding around 4.11% overnight and the US Dollar Index trading around 103.5; the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its employment-related surveys for August today, with economists expecting non-farm job creation of around 170,000 and wage growth at 4.4% year over year.
The U.S. dollar drifted in cautious trading as investors considered U.S. jobs data that indicated a potential slowdown, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its monetary tightening cycle.
Traders will have a break from the stock market on Labor Day following positive economic data that suggests a slowing economy and potentially prevents the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates, while other markets such as commodities and bonds will be closed, and stock futures are expected to rise; additionally, the crypto trade remains active.
The coming week is expected to be lighter for investors, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision being the highlight, as US markets observe Labor Day and updates on the services sector and corporate earnings are anticipated.
The USD/INR pair trades sideways as China's stimulus measures and an agreement between Country Garden and creditors undermine the US Dollar, while traders expect no interest rate hike in the September meeting by the Fed.
The United States Federal Reserve's financial woes and potential implications for cryptocurrency are discussed on the latest episode of "Macro Markets," highlighting challenges posed by inflation and the consequences of loose monetary policies during the pandemic.
The US dollar's strength in the foreign exchange market, along with discussions of de-dollarization, highlights the divergence between the US and other major economies. The Dollar Index is on an eight-week rally, reaching a record high in international payments, while the euro's share has declined to a record low. In the week ahead, the US CPI and the ECB meeting are expected to be major events, with the US showing signs of inflation and weaker demand, and the euro facing challenges amid stagnation and inflation. China's CPI and PPI have shown some improvement, but the focus will be on yuan loans and real sector data. The eurozone's focus will be on the possibility of a rate hike by the ECB and the release of July industrial production figures. Japan's household consumption continues to fall, and the country may experience a contraction in Q3. The UK will release employment data and GDP details, while Canada will see data on existing home sales and the CPI. Australia will release its August employment data, and Mexico's peso positions may continue to adjust due to the winding down of the currency forward hedging facility.
The main event to watch this week is the latest inflation data, which will precede the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
Bitcoin's weak performance and its potential "double top" structure raise concerns of more downside, with predictions of new local lows; however, there are indications that Bitcoin may experience a major shakeout before rebounding to "fair value" and the 200-week EMA near $25,600 may offer some optimism; debate ensues over the possibility of Bitcoin filling the $20,000 CME futures gap; liquidity levels on BTC/USD markets continue to increase, adding to bearish predictions; ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on September 14 brings potential volatility to the market and may impact crypto market expectations.
Summary: Multiple central bank meetings are expected to take place next week, with the ECB already announcing a dovish rate hike, while oil prices continue to rally due to supply restrictions, gold is recovering ahead of the Fed meeting, and Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum.
Global monetary decisions over the next 36 hours may shape the rest of the year, as central banks grapple with a US push to maintain high interest rates and concerns over inflation and crude oil prices.
The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting will focus on the central bank's expectations for key indicators such as interest rates, GDP, inflation, and unemployment, while many economists believe that the Fed may signal a pause in its rate-hiking cycle but maintain the possibility of future rate increases.
The stock market faces a major issue as the dollar reaches a crucial level and could potentially break out.
World markets attempt to stabilize following a week of central bank decisions, as the dollar hits 6-month highs due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan remains dovish and business readouts offer some soothing economic news.
