Despite the optimism from some economists and Wall Street experts, economist Oren Klachkin believes that elevated interest rates, restrictive Federal Reserve policy, and tight lending standards will lead to a mild recession in late 2023 due to decreased consumer spending and slow hiring, although he acknowledges that the definition of a recession may not be met due to some industries thriving while others struggle.
Kevin O'Leary warns that the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate hikes could cause economic chaos, especially for small businesses.
The US economy is facing a looming recession, with weakness in certain sectors, but investors should not expect a significant number of interest-rate cuts next year, according to Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. She points out that leading indicators have severely deteriorated, indicating trouble ahead, and predicts a full-blown recession as the most likely outcome. Despite this, the stock market has been defying rate increases and performing well.
Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital, believes that the Federal Reserve's goal of 2% inflation is unlikely to be achieved in the near future due to factors such as ongoing worker's strikes and the rising national debt, and he predicts long-term rates will rise further as a result.
Hedge fund titan Bill Ackman warns that long-term rates are expected to rise further, urging investors to remain short bonds due to inflation, rising energy prices, and increasing supply and decreasing demand of US government paper.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman expects 30-year interest rates to increase further and sees inflation remaining high, while his hedge fund remains short on bonds.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan believes that the Federal Reserve has successfully tamed inflation but warns that factors like the strength of US consumers may lead to higher interest rates; however, Moynihan expects the US to avoid a recession and experience slow GDP growth in the coming quarters.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman believes long-term Treasury yields could reach 5% as stubborn inflation persists and the Federal Reserve struggles to lower it, with high energy prices and a resurgent labor movement contributing to the issue.
Financial risk strategist Larry McDonald warns that a slowdown in the economy and increasing debt levels may force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its strategy of hiking interest rates, potentially leading to a big debt default cycle next year, and advises investors to shift their focus from growth stocks to hard assets and commodities such as "sexy metals" like uranium and copper, as well as real estate and art.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates as the economy slows down, but warns of continuing spillover effects and expects bond yields to rise further.
Bill Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square Holdings, has shifted to a long-term buy-and-hold strategy, focusing on stocks such as Universal Music and Alphabet, and has outperformed 99% of similar funds since 2018.
Bill Ackman, the billionaire investor, believes that businesses with pricing power will perform well in today's market, even with higher inflation, and highlights Google, Universal Music Group, Restaurant Brands, and Hilton as examples of stocks that fit this criterion.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman warns that the American economy is starting to slow due to high interest rates and highlights potential challenges for certain individuals and commercial real estate investors, but his firm's top three holdings, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Restaurant Brands International, and Lowe's Companies, have seen varying performances in the market.
Market veteran Ed Yardeni believes that the wobbling commercial real estate market will lead the Federal Reserve to halt interest rate hikes, as rising bond yields and office vacancies worsen the credit squeeze in the sector.
Bank of America's CEO Brian Moynihan predicts that rising interest rates and tightening lending conditions will lead to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, impacting consumer behavior and business decisions.
U.S. inflation slowdown is a trend, not a temporary blip, according to Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, who believes the downward trend will continue and hopes that it does, while also expressing concern over rising oil prices and possible economic disruptions in the Middle East; Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni suggests the Fed is likely done with interest rate hikes and may reach its 2% inflation target by early 2025, with a low probability of rate hikes in November or December; Philadelphia Fed Reserve President Patrick Harker believes interest rates can remain untouched if economic conditions continue on their current path, as disinflation is taking shape and the Fed's interest rate policy is filtering into the economy; Mortgage rates have been affected by the federal government's increasing spending and smaller revenues, leading to a heavier impact on mortgage rates this fall.
Bill Ackman, billionaire hedge fund titan, has ended his bet against 30-year Treasury bonds due to concerns about a slowing economy and increased geopolitical risks, shifting his main fear from inflation and higher interest rates to a potential recession; however, not everyone agrees with Ackman's outlook on inflation and interest rates, with some suggesting that wage growth and consumer spending could still lead to higher yields.
Bill Ackman, the billionaire head of Pershing Square Capital Management, has announced that he is closing his short bets on government bonds, attracting attention due to his successful investing history.
Billionaire investor Bill Gross predicts that the US will enter a recession this quarter due to challenges faced by regional banks and a surge in auto loan delinquencies, causing him to recommend investing in the yield curve, SOFR futures, and equity arbitrage; fellow billionaire investor Bill Ackman has closed his bets against Treasurys due to growing economic risks.
The CEO of Starwood Capital Group, Barry Sternlicht, predicts that the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates due to the high cost of paying off the government's debt pile, and warns that other Western central banks may follow suit or resort to printing money to cover deficits.
