Main Topic: The U.S. Federal Reserve's need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation.
Key Points:
1. Governor Michelle Bowman supports the Fed's quarter-point increase in interest rates last month due to high inflation, strong consumer spending, a rebound in the housing market, and a tight labor market.
2. Bowman expects additional rate increases to reach the Fed's 2 percent inflation target.
3. Monetary policy is not predetermined, and future decisions will be data-driven. Bowman will consider consistent evidence of inflation decline, signs of slowing consumer spending, and loosening labor market conditions.
Experts are divided on whether the US Federal Reserve should raise its interest rate target to 3% to combat inflation and cushion against recessions, with some arguing that raising inflation targets would be futile.
The US Federal Reserve must consider the possibility of the economy reaccelerating rather than slowing, which could have implications for its inflation fight, according to Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. He noted that retail sales were stronger than expected and consumer confidence is rising, potentially leading to higher inflation and a need for further tightening of monetary policy.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker does not believe that the U.S. central bank will need to increase interest rates again and suggests holding steady to see how the economy responds, stating that the current restrictive stance should bring inflation down.
As Jerome Powell, the chair of the U.S Federal Reserve, prepares to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium, the big question is whether he will signal a major shift in how central banks deal with inflation, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation targets. Some economists are suggesting moving the inflation target range from 2-3 percent, while others argue for higher targets to give central banks more flexibility in combating recession. The debate highlights the challenges of setting and changing formal inflation targets and the ongoing changes in the factors that drive growth and inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the fight against inflation still has a long way to go, emphasizing the need for extended periods of elevated interest rates to restore price stability. Powell stated that although inflation has cooled, the improvement may be temporary, and the Fed is committed to lowering inflation to their 2% target.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed's inflation target will remain at 2% and that they are prepared to raise rates further if necessary, despite concerns of an economy that has re-accelerated above expectations.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia believes that the US central bank has already raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to pre-pandemic levels of around 2%.
The spike in retail inflation has raised uncertainty for investors and savers, with expectations of interest rate cuts being pushed to the next fiscal year and the possibility of a rate hike. The Reserve Bank of India projects inflation to stay above 5% until the first quarter of 2024-25, and food price pressures are expected to persist. While inflation may impact stock market returns, gold and bank deposit rates are expected to remain steady.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have both stated that there will be no change to their shared objective of achieving a 2% inflation target, despite the challenges posed by the global economy emerging from the pandemic.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester believes that beating inflation will require one more interest-rate hike and then a temporary pause, stating that rate cuts may not begin in late 2024 as previously thought.
BlackRock's Rick Rieder suggests that the Federal Reserve can now end its inflation fight as the labor market in the US is cooling down after gaining 26 million jobs in the past three years.
The Federal Reserve's attempt to combat inflation is not making any progress, as shown by the latest jobs report and inflation data, indicating that inflation is likely to worsen.
The Federal Reserve is considering whether to raise interest rates even higher to combat inflation, but some policymakers, like Raphael Bostic, believe it is unnecessary and advocate for keeping the rates at their current level until 2024.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan believes that while it may be appropriate to skip an interest-rate increase at the upcoming meeting, further policy tightening will likely be necessary to bring inflation down to 2% in a timely manner.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon believes the U.S. economy is unlikely to experience a significant recession, but warns that inflation will be more persistent than anticipated.
The Federal Reserve faces a critical decision at the end of the year that could determine whether the US economy suffers or inflation exceeds target levels, according to economist Mohamed El-Erian. He suggests the central bank must choose between tolerating inflation at 3% or higher, or risking a downturn in the economy.
Economist Campbell Harvey warns that the Federal Reserve should not raise rates later this year, as he believes a recession may occur in 2024 due to an inverted yield curve and potential distortions in Bureau of Labor Statistics and GDP figures.
Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, predicts that advanced economies will not achieve 2% inflation in the near future due to structural changes in the global economy, suggesting that a new normal of 3% to 4% inflation may be more likely over time.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady as it waits for more data on the US economy, and new economic projections suggest stronger growth and lower unemployment; however, inflation remains a concern, leaving the possibility open for another rate increase in the future.
The Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates until inflation decreases, even if it means more people losing their jobs, according to CNBC's Jim Cramer.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but left room for potential rate hikes, as they see progress in fighting inflation and aim to bring it down to the target level of 2 percent; however, officials projected a higher growth rate of 2.1 percent for this year and suggested that core inflation will hit 3.7 percent this year before falling in 2024 and reaching the target range by 2026.
Federal Reserve policymakers Governor Michelle Bowman and Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed the need to keep interest rates elevated to combat inflation, with Bowman suggesting further rate hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% target and Collins stating that further tightening is not off the table as progress in battling inflation has been slow.
Hedge fund titan Bill Ackman warns that long-term rates are expected to rise further, urging investors to remain short bonds due to inflation, rising energy prices, and increasing supply and decreasing demand of US government paper.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman expects 30-year interest rates to increase further and sees inflation remaining high, while his hedge fund remains short on bonds.
Despite predictions of higher unemployment and dire consequences, the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have succeeded in substantially slowing inflation without causing significant harm to the job market and economy.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari believes there is a 50% chance that interest rates will need to significantly increase in order to combat inflation, citing a strong case for the U.S. economy heading towards a "high-pressure equilibrium."
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan believes that the Federal Reserve has successfully tamed inflation but warns that factors like the strength of US consumers may lead to higher interest rates; however, Moynihan expects the US to avoid a recession and experience slow GDP growth in the coming quarters.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman believes long-term Treasury yields could reach 5% as stubborn inflation persists and the Federal Reserve struggles to lower it, with high energy prices and a resurgent labor movement contributing to the issue.
Billionaire real estate mogul Barry Sternlicht warns that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are worsening the economy and causing inflation levels to drop below target, urging the central bank to cease interest rate increases.
Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, warns that the economy is starting to slow due to aggressive rate hikes, high mortgage rates, and high credit card rates, leading to concerns about a potential recession and impacting investors in the commercial real estate market.
The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates as inflation resurfaces, according to Wall Street investor Caitlin Long, with big corporations benefiting while other sectors of the US economy are already in recession.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman suggests that further interest rate hikes may be necessary to bring inflation back to the central bank's target of 2%, despite recent data showing slower price increases.
Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, has expressed interest in taking part of X (formerly known as Twitter) public through a deal with Elon Musk.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates as the economy slows down, but warns of continuing spillover effects and expects bond yields to rise further.
Bill Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square Holdings, has shifted to a long-term buy-and-hold strategy, focusing on stocks such as Universal Music and Alphabet, and has outperformed 99% of similar funds since 2018.
Bill Ackman, the billionaire investor, believes that businesses with pricing power will perform well in today's market, even with higher inflation, and highlights Google, Universal Music Group, Restaurant Brands, and Hilton as examples of stocks that fit this criterion.
U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman believes that inflation is still too high and that the central bank may need to tighten monetary policy further to reach their 2 percent inflation goal in a timely manner.
The Federal Reserve is expected to reach its 2% inflation target rate by early 2025 and is unlikely to raise interest rates in the near future, according to Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. Fratantoni also predicts that the 10-year treasury rate will drop below 4% by the end of the year, leading to a decrease in mortgage rates over the next two years. The U.S. government's fiscal policy and debt limit impasse could continue to impact mortgage rates.