China Stock Market Flickers As Beijing Provides Boost; Is It Real Or A False Dawn?
China's stock market indexes experienced a brief bounce of over 5% before giving up most of the gains, following new government measures to reduce trading costs and boost stocks, raising questions about the severity of China's economic problems and whether they can be resolved through stimulus measures.
Chinese authorities have introduced new measures to boost investor confidence in the stock market by reducing trading costs, relaxing rules on share buybacks, and considering extended trading hours and a cut in stamp duty, following recent declines in both the stock and bond markets. These declines have been influenced by China's deteriorating economic outlook, including deflation, weak consumer spending on manufactured goods, rising youth unemployment, and concerns over the property market.
China's stock market has experienced a bearish performance recently, with the benchmark stock index reaching a 9-month low, and there are concerns about the longer-term equilibrium interest rate highlighted by Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
Asian stocks, particularly Chinese markets, may find some relief after Wall Street's resilience in the face of rising bond yields, though economic data from China remains underwhelming and foreign investors continue to sell Chinese stocks.
Asian stock markets rebounded from an eight-day losing streak, supported by a recovery in Chinese shares, while benchmark Treasury yields reached a 16-year high on concerns of sustained high interest rates.
China's securities regulator has announced a series of measures to revive the country's sinking stock market, including cutting trading costs and supporting share buybacks, despite concerns that these actions will not boost investor confidence unless the economy improves.
China's economic slowdown, marked by falling consumer prices, a deepening real estate crisis, and a slump in exports, has alarmed international leaders and investors, causing Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index to fall into a bear market and prompting major investment banks to downgrade their growth forecasts for China below 5%.
China's regulators are struggling to attract global funds to invest in the country's stocks due to a lack of strong stimulus measures to support growth, resulting in a slump in the MSCI China Index and significant outflows from the mainland market.
Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the state of China's economy as informal gauges, such as PMI surveys and soft surveys, indicate a deep-seated confidence problem and a potential miss of the country's 5% growth target this year, leading to a retreat from global assets exposed to the slowdown.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm worldwide, with countries experiencing a slump in trade, falling commodity prices, and a decrease in Chinese demand for goods and services, while global investors are pulling billions of dollars from China's stock markets and cutting their targets for Chinese equities.
Chinese stocks, including Alibaba and JD.com, experienced a rally after the government announced plans to reduce trading taxes and implement measures to boost capital markets.
China's stamp duty and margin cuts revive confidence in the Hong Kong stock market, leading to a rally in stocks such as HKEX, Alibaba, and BYD, while China Evergrande continues to struggle.
China has announced measures to support the market, including reducing stamp duty on stock trading and approving the launch of retail funds, but the response from investors has been muted.
China's attempts to stabilize its stock market through new initiatives and measures have failed as a brief rally fizzled out, reflecting concerns over the nation's economic health.
Chinese stocks rebounded briefly after Beijing implemented measures to halt the slide, but foreign investors used the opportunity to unload $1.1 billion of mainland Chinese equities, reflecting ongoing nervousness about holding capital in China.
Chinese stocks initially surged on Monday after the government implemented measures to boost investor confidence, but most of the gains were lost by the end of the session due to concerns about the country's economic slowdown and the foreign outflow of funds.
Chinese stocks, including Alibaba, rise for a second day following stimulus measures from Beijing, but long-term gains may be challenging due to concerns over China's economy.
China's government implemented various measures to boost its stock market, including a cut in stamp duty and restrictions on selling shares, but the impact has been limited as the CDI 300 index closed up just 1.2% after initially opening higher, and troubled property developer Evergrande experienced an 87% drop in stock value; foreign investors are pulling their money out of China and want to see more significant policy measures from the government.
China's economy will struggle with low growth under 5% through 2024, leading to a "structural hard landing" due to tight monetary policy, disappointing economic reopening, and challenges in real estate and stock markets, according to TS Lombard strategists.
Chinese consumer spending has rebounded in certain sectors, but concerns persist over the property market and GDP growth falling below 5%, according to Shehzad Qazi, managing director of China Beige Book.
Chinese stocks surged as the government implemented additional measures to support the property sector, signaling a determination to boost the economy by addressing issues in the struggling housing market.
Global stocks rise as a Chinese rebound, prompted by eased mortgage rules, boosts the country's struggling property sector. Goldman Sachs predicts more stimulus to come.
Wall Street's main indexes fell in choppy trade due to rising Treasury yields and weak services activity in China, while gains in energy stocks limited losses; however, expectations of a pause in Fed monetary tightening boosted growth stocks.
U.S. stocks slipped as worrying data out of China and a spike in oil prices following the extension of Saudi Arabian production cuts weighed on the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.4% and the Nasdaq dipped 0.1%.
China's stock market rebound may be temporary as corporate earnings continue to decline and companies revise down their outlooks, causing concern for foreign funds and prompting Bank of America to urge caution.
Investors are avoiding global stocks with significant exposure to the Chinese market due to concerns over China's property slump and its impact on the economy, causing the MSCI World Index to recover to just 2% below its July-end figure.
Chinese stocks have passed the worst of the selling pressure and are still attractive to investors due to their cheap valuation and potential for growth, according to CLSA. However, Beijing needs to address concerns and risks in the economy. The MSCI China Index has fallen this year, but a pause in the Federal Reserve's tightening policy is expected to reverse market pessimism.
Asian markets are expected to finish the week strong due to positive movements in the U.S. and Europe, although the release of economic data from China may dampen the mood, as it includes indicators such as house prices, fixed asset investment, and unemployment. The Chinese government is aiming to support the economy, but doubts remain about reaching the 5% GDP growth target and trade relations with the West continue to deteriorate. However, if investors continue with the bullish momentum from Thursday, these concerns may be temporarily set aside.
China's macroeconomic challenges, including deflationary pressures, yuan depreciation, and a struggling property sector, could have broader implications beyond its borders, impacting global metal exporters, trade deals, and global inflation; however, investing in China's stocks may offer compelling valuations despite the current downturn.
China's stock market has slumped due to worrying economic data including falling prices, missed expectations in retail sales and industrial production, and plunging real estate investment, leading analysts to express concerns about an impending downward spiral in the Chinese economy.
Despite concerns about China's economic decline, U.S. equity indices have remained stable, suggesting that the country's economic weakness may not be accurately reflected in the markets; this could be due to President Xi Jinping's lack of interest in implementing stimulus measures.
Summary: U.S. stocks slumped amid mixed sentiment about the economy, with only the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising for the week, while Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell, and China's venture capital investment dropped by 31.4% compared to 2022 due to its sluggish economy and geopolitical tensions discouraging foreign investors.
The article discusses the current state of the economy and questions whether the "soft landing" explanation and belief in a full recovery are accurate, particularly in light of China's economic struggles and global inflation concerns.
The outlook of U.S. companies on China's markets in the next five years has hit a record low due to factors such as political tensions, tariffs, slow Covid recovery, and issues in the real estate market; however, complete decoupling between the two economies is unlikely.
UBS Investment Bank suggests that the stock slump in China is almost over and investors should be more optimistic about the market outlook, as economic fundamentals have improved and technical signals indicate a potential market rebound.
Chinese stocks defy regional declines as tech stocks rise, while the 10-year Treasury yield slightly decreases from a 16-year high; US futures tick higher following a 1.6% slide in the S&P 500; bond yields rise in Australia and New Zealand after positive US labor market data; and India's sovereign debt is set to be included in JPMorgan's benchmark emerging-markets index.
