### Summary
The risk of a "real Lehman moment" is increasing in China due to a shadow banking crisis and declining property sales, according to Jefferies' global strategist Chris Wood.
### Facts
- 💣 Chinese asset manager Zhongzhi Enterprise's failure to make interest payments on wealth management products indicates a liquidity crisis and highlights the real estate sector's crisis.
- 💰 Chinese equities are a value trap, says Wood.
- 🏢 Evergrande's problems were not a "Lehman moment" because they were induced by the authorities through the "Three Red Lines" policy.
- 🚫 President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaigns and last year's lockdowns have dampened entrepreneurial spirits and damaged China's command economy model.
- 📉 The residential property market's biggest downturn since privatization in the mid-1990s was undermined by lockdowns, even after the relaxation of the "Three Red Lines" policy.
- 💼 For those who believe China is in a "balance sheet recession," owning a dividend index and long government bonds is a recommended strategy.
### Summary
China's economic crisis, particularly in the real estate sector, has far-reaching implications beyond economic sectors, impacting households, consumer confidence, and international investor sentiment, posing a significant challenge for President Xi Jinping's leadership.
### Facts
- 💰 Evergrande Group, one of China's highly indebted property giants, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in the U.S., underscoring the gravity of the situation.
- 💣 Brahma Chellaney, a strategic affairs expert, believes that China's real estate crisis presents a significant challenge for President Xi Jinping's leadership and may lead to increased risk-taking and potential crackdowns on protests.
- 🔗 Evergrande's struggles are mirrored by Country Garden, another major player, which warned of up to a $7.6 billion first-half loss and apologized for misjudging market conditions.
- 🌍 The real estate slump in China is part of a larger economic crisis, with structural constraints like an aging population and mounting debt adding to the woes, potentially hindering China's ambition to become a global economic superpower.
- 📉 Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a Fellow for China Studies, highlighted concerns of foreign investors regarding contagion effects from the real estate sector's financing practices and the state of China's shadow-banking system. The trust industry, valued at $2.9 trillion, has attracted regulatory attention as authorities seek to manage potential risks.
### Summary
Ray Dalio, a renowned investor, believes that China's struggling economy needs a significant debt restructuring, despite economists stating that Beijing won't intervene to support the failing property sector.
### Facts
- Ray Dalio currently has approximately $3 billion invested in Chinese businesses.
- China's struggling property sector, plagued by failing property giants and sinking house prices, is causing concerns about contagion in other industries.
- Beijing is unlikely to step in and prop up developers, even though the sector is described as the "single most important" industry on a global scale.
- China's debt has nearly doubled over the past five years, reaching about 66 trillion yuan ($9.3 trillion), which is more than half the country's annual economic output.
- Dalio suggests that China should undertake a massive debt restructuring, similar to what Zhu Rongji orchestrated in the late 1990s but on a larger scale.
- Dalio believes that China's restructuring would be easier than other countries' due to the majority of debt being held in the country's own currency.
- The two levers to facilitate the "beautiful deleveraging" process in China are deflationary defaults and restructurings, combined with the inflationary measure of printing money.
- Other countries, such as Japan, the United States, and Europe, will also need to deleverage eventually, but Dalio thinks China should take the first step.
- China is currently facing various alarming issues, including intervention in the currency markets, soaring youth joblessness, and a drop in land sales.
- China Evergrande, a major property developer, has filed for bankruptcy protection, and China's largest developer, Country Garden, is on the verge of default.
China's real estate crisis, caused by a crackdown on risky behavior by home builders and a subsequent housing slowdown, is spreading to the broader economy, leading to sinking sales, disappearing jobs, and a decline in consumer confidence, business investment, and stock markets.
China's real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, causing major developers to face massive losses and mounting debts, which is impacting the country's economy and global growth.
China's economy is facing a downward spiral due to a crisis in the debt-laden property sector, prompting seven city banks to reduce their growth forecasts for the country; concerns include falling into deflation, high unemployment rates, and the need for more proactive government support.
China's decision not to cut its five-year loan prime rate to revive the real estate sector and boost the economy is expected to have a limited impact and further weaken confidence, according to economists.
China's economic slump is worsening due to the prolonged property crisis, with missed payments on investment products by a major trust company and a fall in home prices adding to concerns.
China's largest private real estate developer, Country Garden, is in financial trouble, missing bond payments and posting a record loss, signaling further concerns about the country's property sector as housing prices and foreclosures continue to rise, while other economic indicators, such as industrial output and retail sales, fall short of expectations; these developments are raising concerns about the overall health of China's economy and its future growth prospects.
China's economy is facing challenges with slowing growth, rising debt, tumbling stock markets, and a property sector crisis, and some analysts believe that heavy-handed government intervention and a lack of confidence are underlying causes that cannot be easily fixed. However, others argue that China's problems are solvable and that it remains a superpower despite its considerable problems.
China's economic challenges, including deflationary pressures and a slowdown in various sectors such as real estate, are likely to have a global impact and may continue to depress inflation in both China and other markets, with discounting expected to increase in the coming quarters.
China's property crisis has left small businesses and workers owed hundreds of billions of dollars, with suppliers waiting on at least $390 billion in payments, as new projects dry up and financial troubles plague real estate developers like Country Garden.
China's economic problems are beginning to resemble Japan's long-lasting issues, as a real estate crisis, an aging population, surging youth unemployment, and high local government debts create a crisis of confidence, potentially leading to a "lost decade" of economic stagnation and deflation, while Japan shows signs of climbing out of its decades-long economic nightmare with rising inflation and a potentially optimistic outlook.
China's property crisis, led by embattled property giants like Evergrande, is causing devastating consequences for small businesses and suppliers who are owed large sums of money, putting both market confidence and debt repayments at risk. The crisis has affected the entire industry and could worsen if immediate actions are not taken to prevent contagion and spillover fears. The Chinese government is urged to abandon restrictive measures on real estate credit, carry out bankruptcy proceedings for developers with capital-outflow problems, and stop intervening in the market to stabilize home prices. The outlook for Chinese developers is deteriorating, particularly for distressed developers, while state-owned developers have a stable outlook. The Chinese housing market is facing a severe crisis that is worse than Japan's market in the early 1990s, posing challenges in filling the gap in spending left by the collapsing housing market.
The slowdown in China's property market continues despite government measures to revive the economy, with analysts warning that the sentiment among many Chinese is too weak for these moves to be effective.
China's economy is facing numerous challenges, including high youth unemployment, real estate sector losses, sluggish growth in banks, shrinking manufacturing activity, and lack of investor confidence, indicating deeper systemic issues rather than cyclical ones.
China's real estate sector is facing a split market, with sales picking up in larger cities while slowing down in smaller cities, but further policy support is expected to stabilize the finances of property developers and dispel financial panic in the next two months.
New home sales in Beijing have increased by 16.9% in the week of September 4-10, indicating that government efforts to revive the property sector are having an impact in the Chinese capital. However, the rebound in sales is not reflected across the rest of China, with sales falling 20% on average nationwide.
China's real estate and construction sectors are struggling, leading to fears of economic stagnation as consumer spending declines and other areas of the economy are not growing fast enough to make up the difference.
China's weak real estate sector and troubled offshore bond market, coupled with its totalitarian government, make long-term investment unattractive and non-profitable, according to Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital.
The struggling real estate sector in China, due to a current crisis and government regulations, is impacting consumer spending and causing Chinese tourists to be slow in returning to international travel. As Chinese homeowners prioritize savings and cut back on spending, global tourism destinations are experiencing a decline in Chinese visitors, resulting in a forecasted decrease of nearly 70% in China's outbound travel spending this year.
China's property sector continues to struggle with deepening falls in new home prices, property investment, and sales in August, despite recent support measures, adding pressure to the country's economy.
Despite prevailing negativity regarding China's economy, alternative high-frequency data points, such as subway ridership and commodity prices, suggest that many parts of the economy are functioning well, although the real estate sector is still struggling.
Economic activity in China appears to improve in August as industrial production and retail sales show growth, however, the real estate sector continues to face challenges with property investment and sales declining, leading Moody's to downgrade its outlook for the sector.
China's housing crisis continues as thousands of building projects are halted or slowed, leading to defaults and restructuring, a loss of confidence in the market, and a decline in sales.
The outlook of U.S. companies on China's markets in the next five years has hit a record low due to factors such as political tensions, tariffs, slow Covid recovery, and issues in the real estate market; however, complete decoupling between the two economies is unlikely.
China's property market is facing a crisis with an overwhelming amount of unsold homes, surpassing the number of people in the country, as the sector continues to slump since the default of China Evergrande group.
Chinese investors are rushing to sell their overseas properties, particularly in Southeast Asia, due to worsening financial conditions and the need for cash to solve domestic issues such as business failures and mortgage loan defaults. Uncertain economic conditions, low confidence in production and consumption, and tightening regulations on property developers in China have contributed to the struggle to offload these investments.
The legal problems affecting real estate firms in Vietnam are expected to persist until the third quarter of next year, leading to a decline in real estate transactions and weak demand, as well as delays and difficulties in housing and urban area projects. Experts suggest that increasing the supply of affordable housing is crucial for the market's recovery.
China's property sector has slumped since 2021, with big-name developers teetering close to default and an abundance of vacant homes that even China's population of 1.4 billion can't fill, according to a former official.
China's urbanization drive is slowing down, which is expected to further impact the struggling property sector that has been plagued by debt problems and declining consumer confidence. Managing the excess housing supply and diversifying the economy away from reliance on the property sector are crucial for a healthier Chinese economy.
China's property crisis, characterized by an excess of empty homes, could take up to a decade to resolve, according to economist Hao Hong, with the country's urbanization process stagnating and the property sector's contribution to GDP declining.
China's economic outlook, particularly for the real estate sector, is expected to become clearer in the last three months of the year, with potential government support and loosening of restrictions to stabilize the housing market and allow the economy to recover fully by mid-2024. However, economists predict that real estate growth will remain weak and prices may fall gradually, as significant price declines could have adverse social consequences.
China's real estate crisis, highlighted by Evergrande's bankruptcy, is leaving homebuyers worried about the fate of their investments as other property giants face similar financial troubles and fears of house price depreciation rise.
China's property crisis poses significant challenges for an economy heavily reliant on real estate, although there are some sectors that may benefit from the situation.
China's real estate crisis continues as Country Garden warns investors of a possible default on its $190 billion debt, highlighting the persistent weakness in the property market and posing a major threat to the country's growth prospects.
China's real estate sector, particularly Country Garden, is facing severe financial distress, indicating a significant downturn in the Chinese economy as a whole.
China's economic growth model, built on real estate speculation and debt, is starting to unravel as the property market collapses and other sectors show strain, leading to shrinking demand, unstable supply chains, and a more precarious global economic landscape.
China's economy experienced growth over the summer due to government investment in infrastructure and increased consumer spending, but the real estate market continued to weaken.
China's real estate market is declining, debt deflation is a concern, its workforce is shrinking, and GDP growth is slowing, leading to warnings of "Japanisation" and prolonged economic malaise, worsened by President Xi Jinping's autocratic rule and economic imbalances far worse than Japan's in 1990.
China's economy grew at 4.9% but the real estate crisis and high government debt levels continue to dampen growth, raising concerns about the country's economic recovery.
China's troubled property market is unlikely to recover in the short term, as economic uncertainty and low buyer confidence continue to hamper demand, despite government stimulus measures; home prices fell for the third consecutive month in September, and property sales and investment have also seen double-digit declines.
Capital is flowing out of China at its fastest rate in over seven years, putting pressure on the yuan, as concerns over the real estate industry and economic growth persist, resulting in significant outflows from onshore banks and a decline in Chinese sovereign bonds and equities.
