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Crypto amplified financial risks in emerging markets: BIS papers

A new study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) suggests that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have not reduced financial risks but rather amplified them in emerging market economies, leading to potential policy options ranging from bans to regulation.

cointelegraph.com
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China's historical dominance in the crypto industry persists despite periodic crackdowns, with many crypto companies still earning a significant portion of their revenue from the country and maintaining unofficial channels of liquidity; China's economic uncertainty, including concerns about future crackdowns and a collapsing real estate market, can impact global crypto markets.
Cryptocurrencies pegged to the dollar are posing a potential threat to Visa and PayPal, highlighting the potential in digital payments, although this trend is not yet reflected in the stock market.
The recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market, marked by a 10% decline in total market capitalization and significant liquidations on futures contracts, can be attributed to various economic factors such as rising interest rates and inflation, as well as regulatory concerns and financial difficulties within the industry, with the future trajectory of the market being influenced by these factors.
Central banks are exploring the issuance of digital currencies to promote financial inclusion and provide easier access to money for unbanked populations, with the potential to reduce dependence on cash, increase local currency adoption, and impact the role of international currencies such as the US dollar.
Global investment giant BlackRock has positioned itself to benefit from the growing importance of digital assets, including Bitcoin, through its substantial stake in MicroStrategy, indicating a new phase of institutional adoption in the cryptocurrency market.
A surge in global interest in acquiring Bitcoin has been observed, with Nigeria leading the way, as investors anticipate a potential rally driven by upcoming events in the crypto sphere and the approval possibility of the inaugural spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the SEC. Bitcoin's evolving role as a possible store of value is reflected in low exchange-held supplies, while technical analysis suggests a bearish sentiment but a potential reach of $26,500 and the $30,000 milestone.
A new whitepaper called "Cointime Economics: A New Framework For Bitcoin On-chain Analysis" introduces a time-based perspective to understand the Bitcoin economy, offering insights into the economic realities and value propositions of the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin, as the world's first decentralized digital currency, is challenging traditional notions of money by empowering individuals, offering a store of value, and demonstrating a growing network effect. With its scarcity, transparency, and potential for financial inclusion, bitcoin is positioning itself as a transformative force in the digital age.
Concerns arise that the struggling Chinese economy and volatility in the stock market may negatively impact Bitcoin's price and hinder its role as an alternative store of value in the face of a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Bitcoin and crypto could experience significant growth in the next few months, with September expected to be a particularly eventful period, including the potential impact of U.S. bitcoin ETF filings and China declaring crypto as "legal property and protected by law."
El Salvador's experiment with making bitcoin an official currency is difficult to analyze due to its opaque nature and multiple objectives, including financial inclusion, revenue generation, and enhancing the president's reputation. The country has made bitcoin purchases, but the exact amount is unknown, and it has experienced a loss of value in its bitcoin investments. The government's digital wallet, Chivo, faced security issues, and the adoption of bitcoin for transactions and remittances has been limited. Comparatively, Argentina has surpassed El Salvador in terms of bitcoin adoption. The move to bitcoin has garnered attention for El Salvador but has also raised concerns about the lack of a coherent educational process for mass adoption.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experience a decline as the Securities and Exchange Commission slows down the decision process for crypto exchange-traded funds.
Disappointing economic data in Asia-Pacific markets, overinvestment in China, and Chinese electric vehicle companies expanding in Europe are among the key factors impacting global markets, while the price of bitcoin remains volatile with conflicting predictions about its future.
The lack of a fully regulated financial market in the US contradicts global economic interdependence, and as a result, the crypto industry is moving offshore rapidly; however, the US government is likely to eventually establish a clear regulatory framework and invest in blockchain R&D, thus strengthening the industry.
A joint policy paper by the IMF and FSB advises against blanket bans on cryptocurrency and instead recommends targeted restrictions and sound monetary policy to mitigate risks, highlighting that global stablecoins pose a greater risk to financial stability than other cryptocurrencies.
A policy paper prepared under India's G20 Presidency recommends licensing crypto service providers and implementing anti-money laundering standards in the sector, while cautioning against an outright ban on cryptocurrencies due to their borderless nature. The paper also addresses concerns about stablecoins and their potential impact on financial stability.
The United States Federal Reserve's financial woes and potential implications for cryptocurrency are discussed on the latest episode of "Macro Markets," highlighting challenges posed by inflation and the consequences of loose monetary policies during the pandemic.
Despite Visa's announcement and warnings from Binance's CEO, major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are struggling in a bearish trend while a top Federal Reserve official expresses deep concern over the $120 billion stablecoin market.
Major cryptocurrencies declined as investors awaited regulatory developments, including the SEC's ruling on a Bitcoin ETF, while Coinbase revealed plans for international expansion and focus on obtaining licenses in key financial jurisdictions.
The recent decline in the price of Bitcoin has raised concerns of a larger market downtrend, with Ethereum and Ripple also at risk of falling if Bitcoin weakens further.
The market is underestimating the potential impact and value of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, with analysts arguing that approval would lead to significant financial inflows and buying pressure, and that it is a good time to enter the market and start building a crypto portfolio, despite regulatory challenges. Ethereum could also benefit from a futures-based ETF listing, but there is caution about the SEC potentially classifying ETH as a security. Overall, the global crypto adoption is dependent on market maturity, regulatory intervention, and consistent long-term adoption.
Bitcoin is facing limitations in terms of smart contract support, but there are several alternative cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin BSC, BTC20, Bitcoin SV, Bitcoin Cash, and Bitcoin Gold, that aim to bring Bitcoin into the future by offering faster, cheaper, and greener transactions with additional features.
Incoming deputy governor of the Bank of England, Sarah Breeden, stated that while crypto currently poses minimal risk to financial stability, it could present a greater danger in the future, emphasizing the lack of value in unbacked cryptocurrencies and the risks highlighted by recent events such as the collapse of Terra and U.S. banks Silvergate and Signature. She also expressed support for a central bank digital currency and the potential benefits of blockchain technology.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has successfully used novel intermediaries to reduce liquidity risk and enhance security for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in its Project Sela, which feeds into CBDC projects for the Israeli shekel and Hong Kong dollar. The project has demonstrated the feasibility of implementing secure and private CBDC systems on a central bank's ledger, protecting against hacks and ensuring privacy for users.
Bitcoin's vulnerability to contracting global liquidity is highlighted by Bloomberg Intelligence's crypto market analyst Jamie Coutts, who suggests that the cryptocurrency will only turn bullish when global liquidity levels expand, warning that it is unlikely to rise until liquidity reverses and anticipating that institutional investors will only show significant demand for digital assets once liquidity rises.
Cryptocurrency prices are less influenced by macroeconomic factors compared to traditional financial assets, with key drivers being market confidence, adoption, technology, and liquidity conditions, while traditional assets are more affected by macroeconomic drivers such as interest rates and inflation, as well as government regulations and transparency requirements.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a range as market indecision persists, but if economic conditions worsen, there could be more pain for risk assets like Bitcoin, according to Jamie Coutts, a market analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Bitcoin and other digital assets are at risk of a deeper market correction due to the contraction of stablecoin liquidity, according to crypto analyst Nicholas Merten.
The Bank of International Settlements warns that financial markets should be cautious of persistent inflation and a more severe economic downturn next year, which could lead to insolvencies and a steep decline in property prices.
A recent report from Chainalysis suggests that grassroots cryptocurrency adoption is seeing a stronger recovery in lower middle-income nations compared to the rest of the world, indicating a potentially promising future for crypto in these countries.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw a rise in value as traders placed bullish bets ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. However, these bets might be premature.
Crypto analyst Will Clemente suggests that the US economy's need to issue more dollars to service its debt will inevitably lead to significant currency debasement, making Bitcoin the most promising asset for investors looking to protect their wealth. With the growing digital trend and a wave of Bitcoin adoption, Clemente believes that alternative monetary systems will become increasingly favorable.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline after the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates, suggesting that significant gains may not be anticipated in the near future.