### Summary
The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages, suggesting that the stock market is not unanchored from reality. However, the performance of long-term US Treasuries has been poor, with even 10-year Treasuries resulting in losses over the last five years. Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain whether it will be enough to bring down inflation rates.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages.
- The performance of long-term US Treasuries has been weak, resulting in losses for investors even after accounting for coupon payments.
- Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain if it will bring down inflation rates.
- The nature of the stock market rally suggests that investors are still searching for buying opportunities rather than thinking about selling.
- Energy, industrials, and financials have become favored sectors, while technology stocks have started to decline.
- The Chinese economy is struggling, with retail sales and industrial production growth slowing down.
- The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about inflation but also noted downside risks to the economy.
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Asian stocks, particularly Chinese markets, may find some relief after Wall Street's resilience in the face of rising bond yields, though economic data from China remains underwhelming and foreign investors continue to sell Chinese stocks.
Stock markets worldwide experience declines amid concerns over the Chinese property market, rising US bond yields, and poor economic data in China and the UK.
Asian markets are expected to follow the global trend of weakness in stocks, a buoyant dollar, elevated bond yields, and souring investor sentiment, with no major catalysts to change the current market condition.
The risks of China's economic slowdown have not been factored into the markets yet, according to Insigneo Chief Investment Officer Ahmed Riesgo, who believes that the crisis of confidence in China's economy will soon become a major global risk.
Asian shares rally as China announces new measures to support its struggling markets, while investors remain cautious ahead of U.S. jobs and inflation data that could impact interest rates.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm worldwide, with countries experiencing a slump in trade, falling commodity prices, and a decrease in Chinese demand for goods and services, while global investors are pulling billions of dollars from China's stock markets and cutting their targets for Chinese equities.
China's attempts to stabilize its stock market through new initiatives and measures have failed as a brief rally fizzled out, reflecting concerns over the nation's economic health.
Emerging markets were shaken by investor concerns over the US economy and the strengthening dollar, causing an equity rally led by China's stimulus plans to be short-lived.
Asian stock markets mostly lower as Japanese factory activity and Chinese service industry growth weaken, while Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 rises on hopes that economic data will convince the Federal Reserve that inflation is under control.
Asian stocks are expected to open lower as traders focus on China's economic conditions and European shares fail to provide a strong lead, while oil and bond yields remain relatively high.
China's stock market rebound may be temporary as corporate earnings continue to decline and companies revise down their outlooks, causing concern for foreign funds and prompting Bank of America to urge caution.
Emerging market currencies are expected to struggle to recover from their losses this year due to high U.S. Treasury yields, safe-haven demand, and a slowing Chinese economy, keeping the dollar strong, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts.
Asian shares fell and the dollar's rally stalled as the greenback weakened against most major currencies; concerns over Apple's iPhone sales in China and the expansion of a ban on iPhones in sensitive departments in China to government-backed agencies and state companies also weighed on sentiment.
Chinese stocks have passed the worst of the selling pressure and are still attractive to investors due to their cheap valuation and potential for growth, according to CLSA. However, Beijing needs to address concerns and risks in the economy. The MSCI China Index has fallen this year, but a pause in the Federal Reserve's tightening policy is expected to reverse market pessimism.
China's property shares are declining and tech shares are underperforming, leading to a slide in the Asian market, while the European market waits for monetary policy decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England.
India's stock market has seen a rally as strong macroeconomic fundamentals and China's economic slowdown keep foreign investors invested in Indian stocks, while a surge in retail investor interest continues to drive the market.
Asian markets are expected to be on the defensive due to sagging stocks and rising oil prices, as investors await U.S. inflation figures that will impact the Fed's rate decision; China's real estate sector is seen as the most likely source of a global systemic credit event.
Asian stock markets fell as Wall Street experienced a decline, with investors preparing for key US inflation data, and a spike in oil prices added to concerns about persistent price pressures and the interest rate outlook.
Asian markets are expected to finish the week strong due to positive movements in the U.S. and Europe, although the release of economic data from China may dampen the mood, as it includes indicators such as house prices, fixed asset investment, and unemployment. The Chinese government is aiming to support the economy, but doubts remain about reaching the 5% GDP growth target and trade relations with the West continue to deteriorate. However, if investors continue with the bullish momentum from Thursday, these concerns may be temporarily set aside.
Asia-Pacific markets rallied after China's August economic data exceeded expectations, with retail sales and industrial production showing stronger growth, although fixed asset investment fell slightly below forecast; meanwhile, the US stock market also ended higher as producer prices increased more than expected.
Risk appetite remains high in the market as Asian markets follow the rally in Wall Street; China's policy support measures, strong business activity data, and positive IPO of Arm contribute to the optimistic market sentiment.
The performance of Alibaba and JD.com stocks suggests that investors are uncertain about whether China's economy is improving despite positive Chinese data.
China's stock market has slumped due to worrying economic data including falling prices, missed expectations in retail sales and industrial production, and plunging real estate investment, leading analysts to express concerns about an impending downward spiral in the Chinese economy.
Asia-Pacific markets are expected to continue declining as investors wait for China's loan prime rates and the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision, while oil prices rise due to supply concerns and all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 trade down.
The outlook of U.S. companies on China's markets in the next five years has hit a record low due to factors such as political tensions, tariffs, slow Covid recovery, and issues in the real estate market; however, complete decoupling between the two economies is unlikely.
UBS Investment Bank suggests that the stock slump in China is almost over and investors should be more optimistic about the market outlook, as economic fundamentals have improved and technical signals indicate a potential market rebound.
Equity markets in Asia are expected to face selling pressure due to worsening risk sentiment and concerns about higher interest rates signaled by the Federal Reserve, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and a fall in futures for benchmarks in Australia and Japan.
Asian markets may be bolstered by Wall Street's performance, but concerns regarding the surging dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and troubles in the Chinese property sector may dampen investor enthusiasm.
Emerging markets experienced a volatile quarter with China's struggling economy, rising oil prices, and increasing US yields causing the worst stock decline in a year, leading to concerns about the outlook for the last quarter of 2023.
Asian markets are expected to open defensively following a volatile day in world markets, with a crushing selloff in U.S. Treasuries, political turmoil in Washington, and suspected currency market intervention from Japan.
Emerging markets face uncertainties from factors such as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, China's economic slowdown, and potential debt defaults in countries like Argentina, Pakistan, and Kenya.
Asian markets are expected to start positively due to a slump in U.S. bond yields and comments from Federal Reserve officials signaling the end of interest rate hikes, despite concerns in China's property sector and other economic indicators.
Emerging-market stocks have faced a challenging quarter due to various factors, but some experts believe this presents an opportunity for a potential rebound, with emerging-market stocks excluding China having outperformed developed-market stocks excluding the U.S. so far this year.
Investors in Asian markets are expected to be cautious as they focus on Chinese producer and consumer price inflation, which will indicate if wider deflationary pressures are cooling in the country's struggling economy.
Asian and European stock markets experienced sharp declines due to weak economic indicators from China and concerns about potential interest rate hikes in the United States.
Asian markets are expected to open cautiously due to Wall Street's decline, oil's surge, escalating violence in the Middle East, and upcoming Chinese economic data, including third-quarter GDP figures which will determine if Beijing's 2023 growth goal will be met.
Asian markets are expected to open cautiously due to Wall Street's decline, rising oil prices, escalating violence in the Middle East, and upcoming Chinese economic data, including third-quarter GDP figures.
Asian markets are expected to open cautiously due to Wall Street's decline, oil's surge, escalating violence in the Middle East, and upcoming Chinese economic data, including third-quarter GDP figures which will determine if Beijing's growth goal will be met.
Investors remain pessimistic about the Chinese economy as China-exposed stocks continue to decline, despite signs of improvement.
Despite the current strong rally, the American stock market is not expected to reclaim its previous peak in the near future due to geopolitical risks, uncertainty about inflation and interest rates, and political dysfunction in Washington, resulting in a slow grind lower, leaving room for both bullish and bearish sentiments.
China's troubled property market is unlikely to recover in the short term, as economic uncertainty and low buyer confidence continue to hamper demand, despite government stimulus measures; home prices fell for the third consecutive month in September, and property sales and investment have also seen double-digit declines.
Most Asian stocks continue to decline due to weak business activity in Japan and Australia, although Chinese markets rebounded as a state-run fund started buying equities; sentiment remains weak due to concerns over the Israel-Hamas war.
Investors are rapidly selling Chinese stocks due to concerns over the country's economic slowdown, lack of convincing response from authorities, and rising tensions between China and the US, leading to a collapse in trust in the Chinese Communist Party.
Efforts to revive Hong Kong's stock market are unlikely to succeed without a major improvement in China's economic prospects, as foreign investors reduce exposure to China and the region's key financial center struggles with low turnover and declining market sentiment.
Gold and silver prices are slightly weaker due to the rally in the U.S. dollar index and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields, while Chinese stock markets are rallied by the government's efforts to stimulate the economy through bond issuance.
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