Main Topic: U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve's efforts to control it.
Key Points:
1. U.S. inflation has declined for 12 straight months, but consumer prices increased 3% year-on-year in June.
2. The Federal Reserve aims to reduce inflation to about 2% and plans to raise its key federal funds rate to over 5%.
3. The Fed is concerned about high inflation due to a strong labor market, rising wages, and increased consumer spending, and aims to slow the job market to control inflation.
### Summary
📉 Americans could run out of savings as early as this quarter, according to a Fed study. Excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
### Facts
- 💸 As of June, US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings.
- 💰 Excess savings refer to the difference between actual savings and the pre-recession trend.
- 🔎 San Francisco Fed researchers Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira estimate that these excess savings will be exhausted by the end of the third quarter of 2023.
- 💳 Americans are using their credit cards more, accumulating nearly $1 trillion of debt.
- 📉 The downbeat forecast raises concerns about the US economy as consumer spending is crucial for growth.
### Summary
The chief global economist at Piper Sandler has warned that the U.S. economy is set to worsen before improving, and Americans should save money and maintain their savings. Rising everyday prices, declining manufacturing activity, excessive government spending, and a tight labor market are all contributing factors.
### Facts
- Americans are spending $709 more on everyday goods in July compared to two years ago.
- One-third of U.S. households spent more than 30% of their income on housing in 2021.
- Excessive government spending is blamed for high prices.
- The declining birth rate and closure of maternity wards indicate that Americans are postponing having children.
- Inflation is a major challenge for the economy, and a recession will put pressure on all wealth groups.
- The economist argues that the fiscal stimulus from the Inflation Reduction Act has had a "counterproductive" impact on controlling inflation.
- To see an economic turnaround by 2025, the private sector needs to drive capital spending, while curbing government spending and reforming entitlements is necessary.
- The economist hopes for sustained low inflation and increased labor force participation but emphasizes the need for tough decisions in Washington.
- The economist believes that the U.S. needs to get its fiscal house in order to become a leader in the global economy.
The US economy has exceeded the Federal Reserve's estimate of its growth potential in recent years, with growth averaging 3% under President Joe Biden, but concerns about rising public debt and inflation, as well as the Fed's efforts to control them, may lead to slower growth in the future and potentially a recession. However, there are hints of improving productivity that could support continued economic growth.
U.S. economic growth may be accelerating in the second half of 2023, defying earlier recession forecasts and leading to a repricing of long-term inflation and interest rate assumptions.
The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has led to increased investments in critical mineral projects and hydrogen producers, but its long-term impact depends on mine permitting rule changes and tax credit guidance; the US Treasury plans to issue $1.859 trillion of debt in the second half of 2023, weighing on bond prices; and new guidance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has resulted in revisions to uninsured deposit totals for several banks.
The US government's debt has reached a record high of almost $33 trillion, causing concerns about its impact on the nation's finances and the risk of a debt crisis, according to experts like Larry McDonald, Ray Dalio, and Nouriel Roubini.
A research paper presented at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual central banking symposium concludes that the steep increase in public debt over the past 15 years due to the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic is likely irreversible, with governments now needing to live with high debt burdens and implement measures such as spending limits and tax hikes.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which may lead to softer consumer spending and sideways movement in the stock market for the rest of the year, according to experts. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card debt could further dampen consumer spending. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a recession, with falling output and sticky inflation contributing to its contraction this year, making it the only advanced economy to shrink.
The U.S. is currently experiencing a prolonged high inflation cycle that is causing significant damage to the purchasing power of the currency, and the recent lower inflation rate is misleading as it ignores the accumulated harm; in order to combat this cycle, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates higher than the inflation rate and reverse its bond purchases.
Despite President Biden's claims of cutting the federal budget deficit by $1.7 trillion, in reality, the deficit is projected to hit $2 trillion this year, with government spending remaining high and the reduction in the deficit primarily due to the expiration of COVID-19 emergency spending.
The U.S. debt is expected to reach $2 trillion this year, doubling from the previous year, due to a decline in global economic growth.
The U.S. economy is expected to expand at a 2.2% annual rate in the current quarter, according to a real-time estimate from the New York Federal Reserve, which is lower than the Atlanta Fed's estimate of 5.6% growth; the strength of the economy will impact the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates and inflation.
Israel's fiscal deficit has widened to 1.3% of GDP as government spending rises and tax revenue declines, jeopardizing the country's fiscal deficit target amid a global economic slowdown and higher borrowing costs.
Americans are expecting high inflation to persist over the next few years, with a median expectation of 3.6% one year from now and estimates of around 3% three years from now, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This suggests that sticky inflation may continue to be a concern, as it surpasses the Fed's 2% target. Consumers also anticipate price increases in necessities such as rent, gasoline, medical costs, and food, as well as college tuition and home prices.
Investors are growing increasingly concerned about the ballooning U.S. federal deficit and its potential impact on the bond market's ability to finance the shortfall at current interest rates, according to Yardeni Research.
The US is facing a potential financial crisis as the national debt reaches $33 trillion and the federal deficit is expected to double, posing a threat to President Biden's government and potential consequences for American citizens.
The US federal debt has reached $32.94 trillion, prompting concerns from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon about the impact on households, while Congress faces pressure to pass a new budget before potential government shutdown at the end of September.
Leading market experts are raising concerns about the growing US debt, warning that it will lead to higher interest rates and potential economic repercussions as federal deficits increase and US debt supply continues to grow.
The US's $32 trillion debt may not be as dire as it seems, as experts point out misconceptions about the national deficit and its impact on the economy. However, future debt problems could arise due to current spending rates.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is revising its projections for this year's US budget deficit, expecting it to be significantly higher than previous estimates, reaching $1.7 trillion in 2023, a 13% increase from four months ago.
The US national debt has reached a record high of $33 trillion, prompting the need for leaders to decide whether to raise the debt ceiling, as inflation continues to rise and there is a looming government shutdown.
US stock futures rise as investors await Fed decision on rates; US debt rises to $33 trillion as government shutdown looms; Federal Reserve expected to pause rate hikes; Impact of government shutdown, autoworkers strike, and rising oil prices on the economy; Biden reshapes the Federal Reserve.
Italy's 2023 budget deficit is projected to exceed the target of 4.5% of GDP and reach around 5.5% due to high interest rates and accounting adjustments related to tax credits, potentially impacting the planned tax cuts in the 2024 budget.
Global debt reached an all-time high of $307 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, increasing by $100 trillion over the past decade, with advanced economies contributing the most to the rise, signaling potential concerns about sustainability and the ability to service the debt as interest rates increase.
The U.S. has a national debt of $33 trillion, raising concerns as the possibility of a government shutdown looms and lawmakers debate spending for 2024.
The Pakistani government has issued new debt of over Rs2.5 trillion in the first three months of the current financial year to address its rising fiscal deficit, indicating a reliance on domestic sources as external financing decreases and revenues decline.
The mishandling of inflation, economy, and the federal budget in the United States has resulted in excellent saving and investment opportunities, with higher interest rates on Treasury bonds, CDs, corporate bonds, and annuity rates, benefiting those approaching retirement the most.
The US economy is facing turbulence as inflation rates rise, causing losses in US Treasuries and raising concerns about the impact of high interest rates on assets like Bitcoin and the stock market. With additional government debt expected to mature in the next year, there is a fear of financial instability and the potential for severe disruptions in the financial system. The Federal Reserve may continue to support the financial system through emergency credit lines, which could benefit assets like Bitcoin.
Rising interest rates, rather than inflation, are now a major concern for the US economy, as the bond market indicates that rates may stay high for an extended period of time, potentially posing significant challenges for the sustainability of government debt.
The federal debt, which has reached over $33 trillion and is increasing, is predicted to cause a crisis in the near future, leading to high inflation, lower profits for companies, and potential stock market problems, highlighting the importance of diversifying investments.
The Federal Reserve's shift towards higher interest rates is causing significant turmoil in financial markets, with major averages falling and Treasury yields reaching their highest levels in 16 years, resulting in increased costs of capital for companies and potential challenges for banks and consumers.
Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are rising uncontrollably, causing ripple effects in financial markets, as the 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since August 2007, resulting in plummeting bond prices and impacting various assets such as stocks and gold. The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to factors such as the U.S. government's expanding budget deficit, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program, and its restrictive stance on interest rates.
The White House's "Bidenomics" agenda and excessive government spending, coupled with the Federal Reserve's low interest rates, could lead to a catastrophic economic crisis marked by inflation not seen since the Great Depression, putting strains on American families and depleting savings, requiring urgent action to reduce spending and avert disaster.
A growing amount of data indicates that a significant economic crisis, comparable to the Great Depression, could occur if government spending is not reduced to combat inflation.
Federal Reserve officials are not concerned about the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields and believe it could actually be beneficial in combating inflation. They also stated that if the labor market cools and inflation returns to the desired target, interest rates can remain steady. Higher long-term borrowing costs can slow the economy and ease inflation pressures. However, if the rise in yields leads to a sharp economic slowdown or unemployment surge, the Fed will react accordingly.
America's gross national debt has reached a record $33 trillion, surpassing its spending on national defense, and the rising interest rates will further worsen the situation.
Federal Reserve officials view the increasing yields on long-term US Treasury debt as a sign that their tight-money policies are effective, although they do not see it as a cause of concern for the economy at this point.
The US government's debt has increased by over half a trillion dollars in just three weeks, leading to warnings from Senator Cynthia Lummis and billionaire Ray Dalio about the potential consequences for future generations.
Higher-for-longer interest rates are expected to hinder U.S. economic growth by 0.5%, potentially leading unprofitable public companies to cut their workforce, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs, who also noted that the Federal Reserve's current benchmark rate is insufficient to cause a recession. Additionally, the firm warned that the high rates could increase the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio to 123% over the next decade without a fiscal agreement in Washington.
