The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting suggest that another rate hike in 2023 is possible, although the Fed does not mention lowering rates and intends to balance the risk of overtightening policy against the cost of insufficient tightening; the market is less inclined to believe that rate hikes will occur as predicted by the Fed, with a higher chance of rates staying steady in September and a lower chance of a hike in November.
Two Federal Reserve officials suggest that interest-rate increases may be coming to an end, but one of them believes that further hikes may still be necessary depending on inflation trends.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker does not believe that the U.S. central bank will need to increase interest rates again and suggests holding steady to see how the economy responds, stating that the current restrictive stance should bring inflation down.
Two officials at the Federal Reserve have expressed differing views on whether or not the central bank should raise its benchmark interest rate again to combat inflation, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding future rate hikes, with more clarity expected from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at a Fed conference in Jackson Hole.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal in his upcoming speech that the Fed plans to maintain its benchmark interest rate at a peak level for a longer period than anticipated, suggesting that any rate cuts are unlikely until well into next year, as the central bank aims to further slow borrowing and spending to reduce inflation.
Two Federal Reserve officials, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, suggested that the Fed may be nearing the end of interest rate increases, although Collins did not rule out the possibility of further hikes if inflation doesn't decline.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia believes that the US central bank has already raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to pre-pandemic levels of around 2%.
The Bank of England may have to increase interest rates if the US Federal Reserve decides to raise rates to cut inflation, in order to prevent the pound from weakening and inflation from rising further.
Former White House economist Kevin Hassett predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again due to increasing inflation and energy prices.
The former president of the Boston Fed suggests that the Federal Reserve can stop raising interest rates if the labor market and economic growth continue to slow at the current pace.
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge increased slightly in July, suggesting that the fight against inflation may be challenging, but the absence of worse news indicates that officials are likely to maintain interest rates.
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins advocates a patient approach to policymaking and believes that more evidence is needed to determine if inflation has been tamed, stating that the Fed may be "near or even at the peak" for interest rates but further increases could be necessary depending on data outcomes.
Federal Reserve policymakers are not eager to raise interest rates, but they are cautious about declaring victory as they monitor data such as inflation and job growth; most do not expect a rate hike at the upcoming policy-setting meeting.
Rising energy costs are predicted to contribute to an increase in inflation rate, but it is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, though there may be another rate hike in the future.
J.P.Morgan Asset Management predicts that there will be no more interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve due to downward-trending inflation data.
The European Central Bank is facing a dilemma on whether to raise its key interest rate to combat inflation or hold off due to economic deterioration, with investors split on the likelihood of a rate hike.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain one more rate hike on the table in their updated forecasts, despite their growing faith in the prospect of an economic soft-landing.
Economist Campbell Harvey warns that the Federal Reserve should not raise rates later this year, as he believes a recession may occur in 2024 due to an inverted yield curve and potential distortions in Bureau of Labor Statistics and GDP figures.
Goldman Sachs strategists predict that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting, but expect the central bank to increase its economic growth projections and make slight adjustments to its interest rate projections.
A survey conducted by Bloomberg shows that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady until May and project one additional rate increase this year, although they do not believe the Fed will actually implement another increase.
The Federal Reserve is expected to signal that another rate hike may be necessary due to strong economic growth and inflation metrics, creating a difference of opinion between the equity and bond markets.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, but investors will be paying close attention to any indications of future rate increases as the central bank continues its fight against inflation.
The Federal Reserve's plans for prolonged elevated interest rates may continue to put pressure on stocks and bonds, although some investors doubt that the central bank will follow through with its projections.
Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England, have pledged to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to combat inflation and achieve global economic stability, despite concerns about the strength of the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions.
Federal Reserve policymakers Governor Michelle Bowman and Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed the need to keep interest rates elevated to combat inflation, with Bowman suggesting further rate hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% target and Collins stating that further tightening is not off the table as progress in battling inflation has been slow.
Two former Federal Reserve policymakers disagree on whether the central bank should raise interest rates, with one saying rates have likely peaked and the other saying they need to be raised further, but both agree that achieving a soft landing for the economy is unlikely.
Stocks may not be as negatively impacted by higher interest rates as some fear, as the Federal Reserve's forecast of sustained economic growth justifies the higher rates and could lead to increased stock valuations.