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Here are the odds that the stock market will crash

Contrary to widespread concern of a stock market crash, the probability of a crash as severe as 1987 in the coming months is actually very small, with a mere 0.33% chance, according to a study conducted by Harvard and Boston University researchers, revealing the increasing pessimism bias among investors following recent losses stemming from two bear markets in a short period, while also suggesting that Shiller's crash-confidence index serves as a useful contrarian indicator.

marketwatch.com
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The U.S. stock market experienced a milder bear market in 2022 compared to historical bear markets, with a decline of 25% from its prior high, and history suggests that a new bull market is likely to follow soon.
The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 5% in August, and opinions on whether stocks will rebound are divided among Wall Street firms and market commentators, with some, like Goldman Sachs and Fundstrat, remaining optimistic while others, including Michael Burry and David Rosenberg, are bearish.
Investors' fears of a stock market crash, similar to the one in 1987, are the highest since the pandemic, with 44% of institutional investors believing that such a crash has at least a 10% chance of occurring in the next six months.
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The recent market pullback has investors questioning if it's the start of a bear market or just a correction, but it's important to recognize that markets are inherently uncertain, and focusing on long-term goals and factors we can control is key to success in investing.
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UBS Investment Bank suggests that the stock slump in China is almost over and investors should be more optimistic about the market outlook, as economic fundamentals have improved and technical signals indicate a potential market rebound.
Investors should not be overly worried about the potential government shutdown's impact on the market, as historical trends indicate that any weakness will likely be a buying opportunity from a short-term trading perspective.