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Government Shutdown Looms - History Suggests Brief, Minor Stock Market Impact

  • A government shutdown could happen if funding isn't passed by September 30th. Some House Republicans are holding out.

  • Previous shutdowns have caused short-term stock market drops, but markets recovered quickly.

  • The 2013 shutdown only caused a minor, brief dip in the S&P 500.

  • The economic impact may be worse this time due to high inflation and interest rates.

  • But history suggests any stock market impact will be minor and temporary.

nasdaq.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the U.S. government is "more likely than not" to shut down later this year due to spending disagreements, which could temporarily impact economic growth by reducing it by 0.15-0.2 percentage points per week, with past shutdowns having minimal impact on equity markets.
Former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor warns that congressional Republicans pushing for a government shutdown are unlikely to achieve a victory similar to the one they sought in 2013, as there appears to be no clear "win" in sight for the party.
The potential government shutdown threatens to deprive the Federal Reserve of crucial data on the labor market and inflation, which could hinder its ability to make informed decisions about the economy and interest rates.
Investors are becoming increasingly cautious about the US stock market and the economy as 2023 draws to a close, leading to a more defensive investment approach by Wall Street banks and experts warning of potential pain ahead.
The White House warns that a government shutdown at the end of the month could have damaging consequences for the economy, national security, and the American public.
Millions of federal employees and military personnel face the prospect of a government shutdown, which would result in financial hardships for American families, disruptions in services, and potential harm to the economy.
A potential government shutdown in Washington could have far-reaching consequences, causing financial losses for millions of people, disrupting medical research and food access, delaying regulatory efforts, and hampering the Biden administration's agenda on energy, climate, and infrastructure.
President Biden warns of the potential consequences of a government shutdown, urging Republicans in Congress to take action to prevent it.
A government shutdown on October 1 is likely, but it is not expected to have a significant impact on financial markets or cause an economic recession.
The S&P 500 typically experiences a decline before US government shutdowns, but tends to rebound and gain in the following months; however, the current shutdown may add to short-term market volatility amidst already challenging economic conditions.
A U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact its credit assessment and highlight the weakness of its institutional and governance strength compared to other top-rated governments, according to Moody's, although the economic impact would likely be short-lived.
The federal government is on the verge of a shutdown, with potential consequences for various areas of governance.
A government shutdown could have dangerous consequences for the nation's cyber defenses and efforts to combat violent crime, warns Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco.
The possibility of a government shutdown in the U.S. could have negative implications for the crypto industry's regulatory progress and projects, similar to the effects seen in the previous shutdown in 2018 and 2019, with delays in approvals and a withdrawal of a bitcoin ETF application.
The impending government shutdown may have an impact on the financial markets, according to Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco.
The risks of a near-term recession are increasing due to potential government shutdown and strikes in the auto industry, which are weighing on consumer confidence, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Jack Manley.
A brief government shutdown is unlikely to significantly slow down the economy, but a prolonged shutdown could hurt growth and potentially impact President Biden's re-election prospects.
A government shutdown in the U.S. could cause significant disruptions in the stock and bond markets, with the Securities and Exchange Commission being forced to furlough most of its staff and leaving the market oversight at a "skeletal" crew level.
There is a 90% chance of a government shutdown, according to Goldman Sachs, as the deadline looms and little progress has been made in negotiations.
The initial public offering market is facing a potential halt due to a possible government shutdown.
A government shutdown is unlikely to have a negative impact on the stock market, as historical data shows that shutdowns have not affected markets in the past.
A government shutdown would severely impact the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's ability to approve IPOs and respond to market turmoil, according to its chair, Gary Gensler.
Goldman Sachs' chief economist predicts that the U.S. government is likely to face a two-to-three-week-long shutdown beginning on October 1 due to the failure to reach an agreement on annual budget legislation.
The article warns of a potential government shutdown and advises readers to take action to protect their investments in the stock market.
Investors are concerned about the recent stock market decline due to surging oil prices, rising bond yields, and worries about economic growth, leading to a sell-off even in major tech companies and potentially impacting President Biden's approval ratings.
Investors are increasingly fearful due to a mix of factors including rising oil prices, expectations of higher interest rates, a sluggish Chinese economy, and the possibility of a US government shutdown, leading to concerns of a prolonged period of stagflation and a potential recession.
A potential US government shutdown could disrupt the release of important economic data, leading to market volatility and forcing investors to rely on alternative sources of information, potentially impacting monetary policy decisions and delaying key reports such as the October 6 payroll report.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that a potential government shutdown would harm economic progress, impacting key programs for small businesses and children and delaying infrastructure improvements.
A government shutdown could lead to disruptions in food aid, air travel, and financial markets, and increase the risk of cyber attacks on critical financial infrastructure, according to Karen Petrou of Federal Financial Analytics Inc.
A potential government shutdown in the US may lead to a delay or absence of the September consumer-price index report, which would complicate decisions for financial markets and the Federal Reserve.
A potential government shutdown could have significant economic and social consequences for the Washington, D.C. region, impacting small businesses, tourism, and the local social safety net, especially if the shutdown lasts for an extended period of time.