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Holiday Retail Sales to Grow Slower in 2023 as Inflation Moderates

  • Holiday retail sales projected to grow 3.5-4.6% in 2023, slower than 2022 due to moderating inflation

  • Total holiday sales estimated at $1.54-$1.56 trillion, with $278-$284 billion from e-commerce

  • E-commerce projected to grow 10.3-12.8% as consumers search for deals to maximize budgets

  • Slowing sales growth indicates inflation is moderating from 2022 highs

  • Consumer sentiment rose in July on enthusiasm about lower inflation and strong job market

investopedia.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Former Toys "R" Us CEO Gerald Storch warns that the upcoming holiday season will be very difficult for retailers due to persistent inflation, as consumers face rising prices, interest rates, credit card debt, and student loan burdens.
U.S. economic growth may be accelerating in the second half of 2023, defying earlier recession forecasts and leading to a repricing of long-term inflation and interest rate assumptions.
Canadian retail sales rose more than expected in June, indicating a rebound in activity, particularly in the motor vehicle and parts dealers, sporting goods stores, and gas stations sectors, while spending on rate-sensitive products like furniture contracted.
Labor Day 2023 is approaching, and there are already early holiday deals available at retailers like Lowe's, Samsung, and The Home Depot, offering discounts on appliances such as washing machines and refrigerators.
Online retailers are advised to use discounts, customer-friendly return policies, and AI tools to capture sales during the upcoming holiday season as global online sales are predicted to reach $1.19 trillion, with the US accounting for $273 billion, according to Salesforce's holiday forecast.
Labor Day is approaching, and many retailers have already started their sales, offering discounts on accessories, shoes, basics, and more.
Retail sales in the UK increased by 4.1% in August, with non-food items experiencing the strongest growth due to higher spending on health and beauty, although clothing and footwear sales were weaker; however, the increase in sales was partly driven by rising prices, indicating that consumers are buying fewer items but spending more.
Holiday sales in the United States are expected to grow at their slowest pace in five years, as consumers are cautious due to dwindling savings and concerns over the economy, with online shopping expected to be a bright spot.
Retail sales in the US rose 0.6% in August compared to July, but the increase in gas prices could impact consumer spending during the holiday shopping season, according to a report from the Commerce Department. Excluding gas sales, retail sales only increased by 0.2% in August.
US retail sales, excluding automotive, are expected to rise by 3.7% over the holiday shopping season, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels of holiday spending, driven by a more normal inflation environment and consumers' willingness to spend on experiences, electronics, and dining out.
Online retailers are projected to offer record-setting discounts this holiday season, with online sales expected to increase by almost 5% from last year, according to Adobe Analytics. Consumers are expected to take advantage of these deals and spend $221.8 billion in online shopping, with toys, electronics, and apparel being the hottest sellers and discounts reaching up to 35% off listed prices.
Stock markets tend to surge on the penultimate trading day before holidays due to investors' optimism and increased spending, with retailers' share prices particularly benefiting, and some traders using the holiday period to gain tactical advantages in the market.
Retailers are starting their holiday sales events earlier than ever as consumers try to manage high prices, record credit card debt, and the resumption of student loan payments, with experts offering mixed predictions for the holiday season.
Consumers are expected to spend an average of $1,652 on holiday-related purchases this year, up 14% from last year and surpassing the average spent in 2019, with non-gift purchases like decorations and home furnishings expected to see the biggest increase, according to a new report from Deloitte.
Sales at U.S. retailers increased by a larger-than-expected 0.7% in September, driven by strong demand at auto dealers and online stores, indicating that households have sufficient buying power to support economic growth.
U.S. retail sales in September exceeded expectations due to increased purchases of motor vehicles, restaurant visits, and bar spending, indicating a potential acceleration in economic growth in the third quarter, but also raising concerns of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December.
The strong performance of the US consumer, with retail sales rising 0.7% in September, could lead to more Federal Reserve rate hikes and upside risks to inflation entering the fourth quarter of 2023.
US retail sales in September exceeded expectations, rising 0.7% from the previous month, suggesting that consumer spending remains strong and could lead to more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.