Thailand's tourism and exports, particularly in the chemical and plastic sectors, are expected to decline due to the economic slowdown in China caused by the real estate crisis, leading to a significant decrease in the number of Chinese tourists visiting Thailand and affecting the country's overall economy.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm across the world, as it is expected to have a negative impact on global economic growth, leading to reduced imports and trade, falling commodity prices, a deflationary effect on global goods prices, and a decline in tourism and luxury spending.
A potential economic downturn in China may have implications for other countries, but the impact on the United States is expected to be minor due to limited exposure to China's economy.
UBS reports higher than expected profits, job creation in the US slows, and markets rally on weaker economic data and hope for a pause in interest rate hikes. China's factory activity shrinks but at a slower pace, while retail sales increase. There are opportunities for investors in other Asian markets.
China's efforts to attract international tourists after reopening its borders have been met with low bookings and a 70% drop in international travelers in the first half of this year, attributed to the lasting damage from the pandemic, China's negative global image, and geopolitical tensions; analysts predict it could take another three years for visitor numbers to reach pre-pandemic levels.
Long wait times for visa applications and limited flight capacity are preventing people in China from traveling internationally as much as they would like, according to the CEO of travel booking site Trip.com Group.
The struggling real estate sector in China, due to a current crisis and government regulations, is impacting consumer spending and causing Chinese tourists to be slow in returning to international travel. As Chinese homeowners prioritize savings and cut back on spending, global tourism destinations are experiencing a decline in Chinese visitors, resulting in a forecasted decrease of nearly 70% in China's outbound travel spending this year.
China's struggling economy, including its deflation and property crisis, will have a significant impact on the US due to its high foreign investment exposure in China and the dependence of key exporting countries like Chile, Australia, and Peru on the Chinese market.
China experienced its largest capital outflow since 2015, with $49 billion leaving the country, as economic concerns prompt investors to withdraw; of this, $29 billion was withdrawn from securities investments, including bonds. The outflow was compounded by a record-high $12 billion in mainland-listed stocks being dumped by foreign investors and a $16.8 billion deficit in direct investment, the largest since 2016. The decline in the capital account was exacerbated by the tourism season, with outbound travel negatively impacting the services sector, while inbound travel remained suppressed, causing a continued deficit in the services trade. Efforts by Beijing, such as reducing the foreign currency reserves held by banks, have aimed to support the yuan but have been unable to prevent a significant decline in the offshore yuan. Weak exports and the allure of US yields have also contributed to the yuan's decline, further complicating China's capital flight situation, as doubts about the country's ability to achieve its 5% GDP target for the year grow.
The UN World Tourism Organization's latest report reveals that there was a combined loss of 2.6 billion international tourist arrivals from 2019 to 2022, primarily due to global lockdowns and travel restrictions caused by the pandemic. This resulted in a decline in tourist demand and a loss of $4.2 trillion in tourism direct GDP over the four years, impacting millions of jobs and small businesses worldwide.
US business confidence in China is being drained by geopolitical tensions and an economic slowdown, with only 52% of American firms optimistic about their five-year China business outlook, according to a study by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai.
