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Markets Week Ahead: US Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, RBA, BoC

The US dollar weakened against major counterparts due to disappointing economic data, leading to a rally in gold prices and a less dovish Federal Reserve outlook, while the Australian and New Zealand Dollars performed well due to gains in Wall Street; crude oil prices also rallied despite deteriorating economic conditions in China.

dailyfx.com
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While strategic competitors in emerging markets are calling for change and the share of the US dollar held as official foreign exchange reserves has declined, it is unlikely that there will be a major shift in the US dollar's role as the central global currency due to the stability and reputation of the US government, as well as the challenges and limitations of other options like the renminbi.
The US dollar weakened slightly against major peers as traders awaited a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the yen pulled away from a nine-month low and China's yuan briefly rose following attempts to bolster the currency.
The US dollar remains strong against major peers and the yen, as Treasury yields rise amid expectations of high US interest rates for a longer period, while China's central bank sets a stronger-than-expected daily midpoint for the yuan to counter mounting pressure on the currency.
Government bonds rallied as yields on longer-dated Treasurys retreated, while stock indexes closed mixed for the week and Bitcoin declined, with oil prices pushing higher and overseas stocks declining.
Oil prices fall on weak economic data and anticipation of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on interest rates. Concerns about global demand and rising supply, along with disappointing manufacturing data, contribute to the downward pressure on oil prices. Additionally, Iran's oil output is expected to increase and the US is considering easing sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector.
U.S. equity markets rallied as tech stocks gained and Netflix shares rose on strong subscriber growth, while Foot Locker and oil stocks struggled; U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell, while cryptocurrency prices rebounded.
China's recent sale of its US Treasurys is a reflection of economic weakness and an attempt to prop up its weakening currency, not a sign of strength, according to Carson Group.
The Pakistani rupee weakened further against the US dollar in the interbank market due to higher demand and uncertainty, while the open market remained stable; however, insiders noted that currency dealers were selling the dollar at higher rates in the open market.
The US Dollar performed well against major currencies, with the British Pound, Euro, and Canadian Dollar underperforming, while the Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar fared better; the Federal Reserve's indication of a higher terminal rate and potential further borrowing cost increases contributed to the market sentiment, leading to lower US equity markets; upcoming economic data includes consumer confidence, inflation gauges from key European countries, and manufacturing PMI gauges from China.
The US Dollar is facing profit-taking and risk as traders digest the Jackson Hole speech and push back expectations for rate cuts, while upcoming macroeconomic data points will be closely watched for any signs of economic deterioration.
The U.S. dollar rebounded from previous losses as investors awaited labor market data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.
The Indian rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar due to demand from state-run banks and the potential impact of U.S. GDP data.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
The US dollar experienced weakness due to disappointing economic data, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may not need to be as aggressive in its monetary policy settings, while equities showed modest gains; Chinese PMI numbers beat estimates but concerns about the property sector lingered; USD/JPY dipped before recovering; and the DXY index stabilized after recent losses, with potential support levels identified.
The Canadian dollar strengthens slightly against the US dollar in August despite concerns about China's economy and a decline in commodity-linked currencies.
The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar after data revealed that the country's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada.
Despite the divergence in global economies, the US dollar still remains dominant, holding a record-high share of 46% on SWIFT in July, while the euro's share slipped to a record low.
The dollar's status as a global reserve currency is facing challenges as countries like China and India promote trade in their own currencies, digital currencies gain popularity, and geopolitical conflicts threaten the international monetary system dominated by the dollar.
The U.S. dollar declined due to weaknesses in economic growth, leading to a boost in the performance of gold and U.S. equities, while other global assets experienced mixed price movements throughout the week.
The safe-haven dollar weakened as risk sentiment improved due to hopes of China's policy stimulus stabilizing the economy and U.S. jobs data suggesting a potential end to the rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve.
The US dollar's influence in the oil markets is diminishing as more oil is being transacted in non-dollar currencies, according to JPMorgan.
The US dollar is surging against other major currencies due to concerns over the global economy and rising oil prices.
Gold and silver prices are lower due to a strong U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while trader and investor risk appetite is downbeat with downbeat economic data from China and Asian stock markets mostly lower.
Asia stocks fall as weak economic data in China and Europe raise concerns over global growth, while the dollar strengthens as investors assess the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
The U.S. dollar's dominance in the gold market may be losing momentum, potentially leading to new all-time highs for gold as the dollar weakens, according to market strategist Carley Garner. She expects the U.S. dollar index to hold resistance below 105 points and eventually retest support at 99 points, which could be a game changer for gold, potentially pushing prices to $2,600 an ounce. Garner also highlights the resilience of gold and the potential for a selloff if the Federal Reserve shifts to a more neutral monetary policy stance. However, she is not as optimistic about silver, preferring to focus on gold.
Emerging market currencies are expected to struggle to recover from their losses this year due to high U.S. Treasury yields, safe-haven demand, and a slowing Chinese economy, keeping the dollar strong, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts.
European stock markets weakened on Thursday due to signs of slowing growth in Europe and China, as well as concerns about future Federal Reserve tightening. German industrial production fell more than expected, adding to the struggles of the eurozone's largest economy. China's exports and imports also fell in August, indicating continued pressure on its manufacturing sector. Additionally, stronger-than-expected US inflation data raised concerns about sticky inflation. Oil prices fell as signs of slowing Chinese growth overshadowed a draw in US inventories.
The U.S. dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 60% for the first time in decades, as other currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Yen are on the rise due to a growing number of countries settling trade in their national currencies, driven by the de-dollarization process initiated by BRICS to end reliance on the U.S. dollar.
The dollar strengthens against the yen and keeps the euro and sterling near three-month lows as investors rely on the resilience of the U.S. economy, while China's onshore yuan hits a 16-year low due to a property slump and weak consumer spending.
The US dollar is on track for its longest rally in years as the strength of the economy fuels speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated, drawing money into the US as investors seek higher rates than they can get in Europe and Asia.
Asian shares fell and the dollar's rally stalled as the greenback weakened against most major currencies; concerns over Apple's iPhone sales in China and the expansion of a ban on iPhones in sensitive departments in China to government-backed agencies and state companies also weighed on sentiment.
The dollar index has been on a sustained rally since mid-July, leading to a slight decline in gold prices due to the inverse relationship between the two, but gold has held up well despite the strength of the dollar.
The value of the U.S. dollar has been strengthening against the Euro and the British Pound due to the continuing strength of the U.S. economy and the weakness of the European economies.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
The US dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency is at risk due to growing debt in the US, according to economist Barry Eichengreen, highlighting the importance of controlling debt to maintain the dollar's global role.
The resilient growth of the US economy is fueling a rebound in the dollar and causing bearish investors to rethink their positions, although the currency's rally may face challenges from upcoming data and the Federal Reserve's meeting this month.
The U.S. dollar stabilized as traders await U.S. inflation data, while sterling weakened after the U.K. economy contracted more than expected in July.
Wall Street rallied as reports suggested that the US economy is still strong, despite concerns about inflation, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1%.
Asia-Pacific markets rallied after China's August economic data exceeded expectations, with retail sales and industrial production showing stronger growth, although fixed asset investment fell slightly below forecast; meanwhile, the US stock market also ended higher as producer prices increased more than expected.
Gold gained as the dollar weakened against the yuan due to positive China economic data, although the possibility of further U.S. interest rate hikes kept investors cautious.
US stocks slumped as reports of China's recovering economy caused concern, potentially impacting global stock exchanges, while the US auto workers' strike and oil price rallies also contributed to market fluctuations.
Gold and silver prices are higher as both markets rebound from multi-week lows, while stocks in Asia and Europe rise and U.S. stock indexes are expected to open mixed; China's economic data shows signs of a fragile economic recovery and the U.S. dollar weakens.
The US Dollar underperformed against major currencies last week, crude oil continued to rally, and gold prices were cautiously higher, while upcoming events like central bank rate decisions and the Bank of England rate hike are expected to impact the market.
The US dollar remains stable in Asian trades as the yen and sterling experience slight fluctuations due to upcoming central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish pause, and the Bank of England's possible interest rate increase.
The US dollar remained strong against other currencies as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's rate decision, while the yen hovered near a 10-month low amidst speculation of intervention.
The US dollar has made an unexpected comeback, with its rebound causing ripples in global markets and impacting investors, officials, and companies.