This article discusses two covers of The Economist magazine. One cover focuses on the dangers of persistent inflation and the dilemma facing central bankers, while the other cover discusses Ukraine's future as a prosperous and democratic country.
Main Topic: U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve's efforts to control it.
Key Points:
1. U.S. inflation has declined for 12 straight months, but consumer prices increased 3% year-on-year in June.
2. The Federal Reserve aims to reduce inflation to about 2% and plans to raise its key federal funds rate to over 5%.
3. The Fed is concerned about high inflation due to a strong labor market, rising wages, and increased consumer spending, and aims to slow the job market to control inflation.
Main Topic: The current state of inflation and its impact on prices
Key Points:
1. Price increases have started to decrease from the highs experienced during the pandemic.
2. Some goods and services have steadily increased in price over the course of the pandemic.
3. The U.S. is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic price levels in the near future.
### Summary
Russia's currency, the ruble, has plunged to a 16-month low, leading to surging prices of sushi due to the country's economic challenges and rift with the West.
### Facts
- 💰 Russia's currency, the ruble, hit a 16-month low last week, as the country's current account suffers from Western sanctions.
- 🍣 Local prices of sushi in Russia are expected to surge by as much as 30% in the coming weeks due to the weakened ruble and strained relations with the West.
- 📈 Russia's official inflation rate reached a five-month high of 4.3% in July, but some economists estimate it to be over 60%.
- 🍱 Restaurateurs in Russia are already facing increased costs of sushi ingredients, such as rice, fish, and seaweed, which are imported and dependent on the dollar exchange rate.
- 💸 The embattled ruble sank past 100 to the dollar, prompting the Russian central bank to raise interest rates significantly.
- 📉 Capital outflows, reduced reliance on Russian oil by European nations, and falling export revenues have added to Russia's economic challenges.
- 🇷🇺 President Vladimir Putin held an emergency meeting to discuss measures for stabilizing the exchange rate, including export restrictions and limits on foreign currency movement.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for measures to control rising inflationary risks in the country and maintain a high level of industrial output, as he prepares for re-election and deals with the strain of military operations in Ukraine.
Russia's Finance Minister, Anton Siluanov, has stated that the country's economy is expected to grow by 2.5% or more in 2023, with inflation predicted to be around 6%.
A surge in services inflation is expected, driven by the recent rise in the stock market, with prices of portfolio management and investment advice services likely responsible for most of the increase.
US inflation remains above 3% as the cost of goods and services rose by 0.2% in July, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve may freeze interest rates to manage inflation without causing a recession.
Credit rating agency Moody's has raised its 2023 U.S. economic growth forecast to 1.9% while cutting its estimate for China, citing mounting challenges for the latter, including weak business and consumer confidence and an aging working population.
British finance minister Jeremy Hunt has stated that inflation is expected to halve by the end of 2023, with the goal of easing pressure on household budgets and increasing productivity, as the government aims to boost optimism about the economy ahead of the expected elections next year.
Inflation in Turkey reaches highest level since December 2022, with prices increasing nearly 60% compared to last year, fueled by the depreciation of the Turkish lira and independent economists suggesting consumer prices have risen as much as 128%.
JPMorgan revises its inflation forecast for Turkey to 65% from 62%, with expectations that the annual rate will peak at 73% in May 2024, due to higher-than-expected inflation data for August.
Americans are expecting high inflation to persist over the next few years, with a median expectation of 3.6% one year from now and estimates of around 3% three years from now, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This suggests that sticky inflation may continue to be a concern, as it surpasses the Fed's 2% target. Consumers also anticipate price increases in necessities such as rent, gasoline, medical costs, and food, as well as college tuition and home prices.
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia's economy would suffer if inflation is not controlled, stating that the central bank had to raise interest rates to 12% due to increasing inflation, causing difficulties in forming business plans. However, he stated that there were no concerns about rouble volatility and that the government had tools to keep currency and markets under control.
Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that inflation in Russia has made it nearly impossible for businesses in the country to plan, but he brushed off longer-term concerns, stating that the problems are not "insurmountable."
Inflation in the Phoenix area has cooled down to 3.7% over the past 12 months, no longer ranking as one of the highest inflationary hotspots in the US, as the housing market has slowed down and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate increases have taken effect.
The Russian central bank has raised its key interest rate to 13% in response to inflationary pressures and a weak rouble, and warns that rates will remain high for a considerable period of time, with further rate increases possible in the future.
Consumers' inflation expectations have reached the lowest level since March 2021, with expectations of a 3.1% rise in prices over the next year, according to new data from the University of Michigan, signaling a positive sentiment for the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation.
The unprecedented increase in fuel prices in Pakistan is expected to cause a significant rise in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index projected to reach as high as 30% to 32% in September 2023.
Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, predicts that advanced economies will not achieve 2% inflation in the near future due to structural changes in the global economy, suggesting that a new normal of 3% to 4% inflation may be more likely over time.
Higher-than-expected inflation has triggered a 'reflation trade' in markets recently, but the increases won’t last and investors should take heed.
Despite assurances from policymakers and economists, inflation in the US continues to rise, posing significant challenges to the economy and financial stability.
UK inflation is projected to average 7.2% in 2023, the highest rate among advanced economies, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which also raised its forecast for UK inflation.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but left room for potential rate hikes, as they see progress in fighting inflation and aim to bring it down to the target level of 2 percent; however, officials projected a higher growth rate of 2.1 percent for this year and suggested that core inflation will hit 3.7 percent this year before falling in 2024 and reaching the target range by 2026.
Russia's economy is facing stagnation due to poorly timed interest rate hikes and high inflation, according to economists, despite President Putin's claims that the country's financial problems are manageable.
Inflation is expected to rebound in 2024 due to a mismatch between supply and demand created by the shift from services to goods during the pandemic, as well as a chronic shortage of workers, according to BlackRock strategists. This could lead to higher interest rates and a higher risk of recession.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari believes there is a 50% chance that interest rates will need to significantly increase in order to combat inflation, citing a strong case for the U.S. economy heading towards a "high-pressure equilibrium."
Russia's economy is expected to grow by 1.5% this year, defying previous projections of contraction and proving more resilient than expected to Western sanctions due to rising oil prices and new export markets, though an eventual slowdown is still predicted.
Pakistan's inflation rate rose to 31.4% year-on-year in September, and the Ministry of Finance expects inflation to remain high in the coming months, with a predicted range of 29-31%.
Turkish annual consumer price inflation rises for the third consecutive month, reaching 61.53% in September due to recent tax hikes and lira weakness, just below expectations; economists predict inflation to reach 70% by year-end.
Underlying US inflation is expected to rise, supporting the idea that interest rates will need to remain higher for a longer period of time, as indicated by central bankers.
Russia's economy is being increasingly structured around war, with nearly one-third of the country's spending next year devoted to defense, redirecting funds from sectors like health care and education; however, the economic impacts of the war, including inflation and a weakened ruble, are causing concerns for citizens and the government alike.
The IMF predicts that the world economy will grow at a slower pace of 2.9% in 2024 due to ongoing risks from higher interest rates, the war in Ukraine, and the eruption of violence in the Middle East, highlighting the need for tight monetary policy to combat inflation.
Russia's economy is predicted to grow by 1.1% in 2024, slower than previously expected, placing it at the bottom of the IMF's list of major emerging markets and developing economies.
Wholesale level inflation surged more than expected in September, indicating the challenge of controlling price pressures in the economy, which has implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
The U.S. government's upcoming inflation report is expected to show a cooling off of inflation, with overall prices for consumers rising by 0.2% compared to August and 3.6% compared to a year ago, and core inflation expected to be up 4.1% from September last year, indicating slower price increases in September than in August.
The upcoming monthly inflation report is expected to show that inflation in the US is cooling off, with overall prices for consumers rising by 0.2% compared to August and 3.6% compared to a year ago, indicating slower price increases in September than in August. However, if the report reveals that inflation remained higher than expected, especially in core areas, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, further slowing the economy.