1. Home
  2. >
  3. Economy 🏛️
Posted

Oil Prices Surge as Markets Brace for Central Bank Decisions and China Slowdown Weighs on Growth Outlook

  • Oil prices rising to highest levels of 2022, with crude nearing $100/barrel again. This pressures inflation and complicates outlook for Fed policy.

  • Markets uneasy ahead of central bank decisions this week. Futures lifting Fed rate bets through 2024.

  • BIS warns risks if rates don't come down quickly. China trimming Treasury holdings.

  • OECD upgrades US and global growth forecasts for 2023. But slowing China a drag for 2024.

  • Business outlook in China at record low due to political tensions and slowing economy.

reuters.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Oil prices rise as global supply tightens due to lower exports from Saudi Arabia and Russia, offsetting concerns about global demand growth amid high interest rates.
Oil prices fall on weak economic data and anticipation of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on interest rates. Concerns about global demand and rising supply, along with disappointing manufacturing data, contribute to the downward pressure on oil prices. Additionally, Iran's oil output is expected to increase and the US is considering easing sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector.
Oil prices edge higher in an uncertain market as US crude futures rise 0.1% to $78.94 a barrel, despite a 2% drop for the week, due to production cuts by major oil producers and a mixed US economy.
European markets remain cautious as traders await signals from Federal Reserve officials on monetary policy, while the German economy stagnated in the second quarter with zero growth.
Crude oil prices are trying to recover and show signs of support, with a "buy on the dips" attitude prevailing due to Saudi Arabia holding 1 million barrels per day out of the market, although supply concerns may arise despite a global slowdown.
Oil prices jumped over 2.5% after OPEC+ members extended supply reductions, with Brent International topping $90 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate hovering above $87 per barrel, as Saudi Arabia announced an extension of its production cut and Russia reduced its exports. Despite slow recovery and increased production, crude futures have rallied more than 25% since late June, with experts predicting prices to continue rising unless a recession occurs. China's demand for petrochemicals has been dampened, but their mobility demand post-lockdowns has offset this.
Rising WTI crude oil prices are raising concerns about higher inflation, which the Federal Reserve is trying to avoid, according to Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi.
Global equity investors are concerned about central bank policies as U.S. data shows a rise in inflationary pressures, causing markets to worry about a potential end to the Goldilocks scenario and softer labor markets.
Summary: Rising oil prices and increasing gas prices, driven by the Russian-Saudi agreement to extend oil production cuts, are contributing to inflation concerns and putting pressure on the markets, leading to potential gains for oil stocks like ConocoPhillips and Chevron.
Oil prices surge to the highest level in 10 months as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend production cuts, raising concerns about inflation and higher interest rates, while the resilient U.S. economy strengthens prospects for interest rate hikes; tensions escalate in the auto sector as contract negotiations with major automakers continue; GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen faces scrutiny from the SEC over stock trades; Apple's market value plummets due to concerns over China's ban on public workers using foreign-branded devices; semiconductor stocks weaken amid export restrictions on China; energy sector excels while industrials and utilities lag; upcoming key economic data to watch includes inflation rate, Producer Price Index, retail sales figures, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.
The price of oil is surging as Saudi Arabia and Russia cut output, creating a supply deficit that is driving up prices and threatening a fragile global economy with inflation and potential interest rate hikes.
Most stock markets in the Gulf rose in response to a rise in oil prices, except for the Saudi index which closed lower; however, the International Monetary Fund predicts a further slowdown in Saudi Arabia's GDP growth due to the extension of oil production cuts.
Uncertainty in various sectors, including potential strikes, government shutdowns, geopolitical tensions, and the question of future Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, is causing markets to lack conviction, but this week's inflation readings could provide direction for the markets. If inflation comes in below expectations, it may signal that the Fed will not hike rates further, while stronger-than-expected inflation could lead to more rate hikes and market volatility. Additionally, increasing energy prices and the potential strike by the United Auto Workers union add to the uncertainty.
Oil prices reach new highs in 2023 due to supply constraints caused by output reductions from Saudi Arabia and Russia, raising concerns about global inventory shortages and potential inflationary pressures.
European markets were stagnant as investors awaited a decision from the European Central Bank on whether to raise interest rates for the tenth consecutive meeting, while carmaker shares dropped following an investigation into electric vehicle subsidies by the European Commission and concerns over Chinese retaliation. Additionally, the oil market is keeping a close eye on the possibility of crude prices reaching $100 a barrel as Saudi Arabia and Russia plan to extend production cuts until the end of 2023.
Despite rising gas prices, Americans remain optimistic about inflation easing, as expectations for inflation rates in the year ahead have fallen to the lowest level since March 2021, according to a consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. However, concerns are surfacing about a potential government shutdown, which could dampen consumer views on the economy.
The US Dollar underperformed against major currencies last week, crude oil continued to rally, and gold prices were cautiously higher, while upcoming events like central bank rate decisions and the Bank of England rate hike are expected to impact the market.
Oil prices continue to rise as OPEC+ supply cuts tighten the market, with Brent crude surpassing $94 a barrel and speculators increasing bullish wagers on Brent and West Texas Intermediate, leading to concerns about inflationary pressures.
The International Energy Agency warns of a deepening oil market deficit in the fourth quarter due to extended Saudi and Russian production cuts, leading to diesel shortages and higher fuel prices impacting sectors such as construction, transport, and farming.
European markets are pessimistic ahead of central bank meetings, energy prices raise the risk of secondary inflation, and the US dollar is gaining strength, which may negatively impact precious metals and cryptocurrencies.
Gasoline prices are rising due to oil supply cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as flooding in Libya, but some experts believe that increasing oil prices will not have a significant impact on the US economy and do not expect them to rise much higher in the next year or two due to factors such as increased US oil production, slow global economic growth, and the green energy transition. However, high oil prices can lead to higher inflation, potential recession, and could influence the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but the impact may not be as severe as in the past, and some experts recommend investing in the energy transition and adopting a more defensive investment strategy.
Crude oil prices, inflation expectations, and labor strikes in the auto industry are among the key factors affecting global markets this week, as central banks grapple with mixed signals and low visibility.
Rising oil prices pose a risk to the Federal Reserve's efforts to achieve a soft landing for the economy and return inflation to its 2% target without triggering a downturn.
Rising crude oil prices, driven by supply concerns and output cuts, threaten to push up petrol prices and hinder efforts to tame inflation, putting pressure on central bankers.
European markets rise as global investors await the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision; retail stocks lead gains while oil and gas dip slightly, and U.K. inflation falls below expectations in August.
Central banks around the world may have reached the peak of interest rate hikes in their effort to control inflation, as data suggests that major economies have turned a corner on price rises and core inflation is declining in the US, UK, and EU. However, central banks remain cautious and warn that rates may need to remain high for a longer duration, and that oil price rallies could lead to another spike in inflation. Overall, economists believe that the global monetary policy tightening cycle is nearing its end, with many central banks expected to cut interest rates in the coming year.
World markets attempt to stabilize following a week of central bank decisions, as the dollar hits 6-month highs due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan remains dovish and business readouts offer some soothing economic news.
The recent global supply concerns caused by Russia's fuel export ban are driving up oil prices, counteracting the demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds and high interest rates.
Policymakers in the US and Europe may find comfort in the slowdown of underlying measures of consumer-price growth, but rising crude oil prices could still fuel further inflation.
Global markets face pressure as U.S. bond yields surge and the dollar strengthens; Hollywood screenwriters reach a tentative deal to end strike; global shares decline, dollar rises ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data; Vietnam aims to challenge China's rare earths dominance; Canadian economy headed for a rough patch; Trudeau expects Canadian interest rates to decrease by mid-2024.
The global markets, including U.S. and Asian markets, are caught in a cycle of rising bond yields, a strong dollar, higher oil prices, and decreasing risk appetite, leading to fragile equity markets and deepening growth fears.
Rising oil prices, driven by production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, could have long-term economic repercussions, particularly in developing countries.
A spike in crude oil prices to the highest level of the year adds to the challenges faced by world markets, leaving investors turning to the Federal Reserve chair for reassurance amidst concerns over inflation, a potential government shutdown, unresolved autoworker strikes, and the Chinese property sector bust.
Investors are increasingly fearful due to a mix of factors including rising oil prices, expectations of higher interest rates, a sluggish Chinese economy, and the possibility of a US government shutdown, leading to concerns of a prolonged period of stagflation and a potential recession.
Oil prices hit their highest levels in over a year as ongoing production cuts raise concerns about the global economy, while the specter of $100 oil looms and supply tightness becomes apparent with reduced stockpiles and increased refining. Higher interest rates may dampen crude demand, but for now, the focus remains on supply.
World markets ended a difficult third quarter on a slightly positive note, with the worst of the selling in bonds and stocks easing and U.S. crude oil prices falling from their yearly highs, while hopes for a possible year-end summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden also boosted sentiment.
The secretary general of Opec+ predicts that oil prices will remain high due to increasing energy demand, as Saudi Arabia cuts its crude oil production by a million barrels a day and warns of a potential supply shortfall.
Global markets steadied as investors awaited data on the labor market, with US equity futures and bonds trading slightly weaker, the dollar steadying, and West Texas Intermediate crude holding around $84 a barrel.
Concerns surround the upcoming release of U.S. payrolls data and how hawkish the Federal Reserve needs to be, as global markets experience a period of calm following a tumultuous week that saw Treasury yields rise to 16-year highs, crude oil prices drop, equities decline, and the yen strengthen. Japanese government bond yields are also causing concern, as investor sentiment towards the Bank of Japan's stimulus remains low.
Global markets are calmer as investors await US payrolls data, hoping for a moderation in jobs growth and less reason for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, while bond yields remain steady and the dollar heads for a 12-week winning streak.
Amid concerns about high oil prices, sticky inflation, and rising wages, investors may be poised to panic, but a closer look reveals a more positive long-term outlook with solid job market, moderating inflation, and decent growth.
Global financial markets are bracing for potential volatility and uncertainty following Hamas's surprise attack on Israel, with investors closely monitoring the reaction of oil prices and the potential for conflict to spread throughout the Middle East region.
Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Hamas and Israel, is causing uncertainty in European markets, as investors consider the impact on already fragile markets dealing with inflation and rising interest rates. Oil prices have surged and U.S. stock futures are lower, adding geopolitical risk to the equation. European markets are expected to open mixed on Monday.
The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious stance due to uncertainty surrounding the US economy, including risks posed by volatile data and tightening financial markets.
Gold and crude oil prices experienced significant gains as geopolitical concerns and cautious Fedspeak impacted financial markets, while the US Dollar strengthened and stock markets faced mixed outlooks.