The depreciating exchange rate of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar is leading to a potential economic disaster, with increased inflation, higher prices for petroleum and fuel, and a rise in poverty and unemployment.
The article highlights the economic crisis in India in 1991 and draws parallels to the current state of Pakistan's economy, emphasizing the importance of focusing on economic growth and addressing the needs of the deprived sections of society.
Pakistan's external vulnerabilities are set to worsen due to shrinking dollar inflows and increasing debt servicing, putting pressure on foreign exchange reserves and potentially leading to their depletion.
Pakistan's recent financial aid and investment partnerships, including with the IMF, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and China, provide temporary relief from economic challenges, but the country must address issues such as low growth, high inflation, unemployment, and limited foreign exchange reserves through deregulation, investment in education and technology, tax reform, privatization, and political stability to achieve lasting prosperity.
Pakistan's interim finance minister, Shamsad Akhtar, has stated that the country's economic situation is worse than expected, and ruled out subsidies for the people due to non-negotiable commitments with the IMF and strict conditions of the $3 billion loan received in June.
The relentless surge in pressure on the exchange rate and price level in Pakistan over the past two and a half years can be attributed to serious malfunctions on the balance of payments and fiscal accounts, which have thrown the monetary aggregates far from their projected path to stability. This has led to inflation and exchange rate pressure, and traditional IMF-mandated adjustments alone may not be enough to resolve the situation.
Pakistan's economic crisis is worsening under the caretaker government, as LPG prices increase by 20% and the rupee continues to fall.
Former finance minister Ishaq Dar believes that a few speculators are responsible for the fluctuation and rise of the US dollar against the Pakistani rupee and that the government must take action against them to prevent them from holding the economy hostage. He also states that there is no quick fix to any problem, and emphasizes the need for the revival of effective policies and time to reverse the damage caused to Pakistan's economy. Additionally, Dar criticizes the policies of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government and expresses confidence in the ability of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to fix the economy if given a fresh and full mandate. He also highlights the complexities of the rise in electricity prices in the country.
The current economic crisis in Pakistan is driven by high inflation, mismanaged policies, and failure to ensure price stability, leading to a weakened currency and a struggling middle class, but implementing radical reforms such as demonetization and swapping out foreign currency debt can potentially alleviate the situation and revive the economy.
Despite claims of massive foreign investment pouring into Pakistan, the country's economic woes and obstacles, such as deteriorating law and order, make it unlikely that these investments will materialize and bring about significant change.
Pakistan's civilian and military leaderships are optimistic that Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, will invest billions of dollars in the country to alleviate its cost-of-living crisis, but doubts remain about the feasibility of these projections and the need for economic reforms and stability.
Pakistan's ongoing economic woes, including budget deficits, trade deficits, and foreign exchange shortages, are not solely caused by corruption but rather a lack of will from leaders to implement necessary solutions and prioritize economic growth, such as increased productivity, better-managed state finances, and global competitiveness, while shedding unproductive state-owned enterprises. The country must also embrace economic pragmatism by opening trade with all countries, investing in human capital, and avoiding ideological distractions to achieve economic modernization.
Millions of Pakistanis are facing the devastating consequences of an unprecedented economic crisis, with rising inflation, soaring fuel and electricity prices, and a weakening currency, leaving low-income households struggling to make ends meet.
Pakistan's central bank is expected to increase interest rates in order to address high inflation and bolster foreign exchange reserves, which have led to a record low value for the rupee. A Reuters poll shows that 15 out of 17 analysts are forecasting a rate hike, with some expecting an increase of at least 150 basis points. The country's economic recovery is being challenged by IMF loan conditions, import restrictions, and subsidies removal, which have caused spikes in energy prices and elevated food inflation.
Despite Pakistan's immense potential in various sectors such as energy and agriculture, the country continues to face economic injustice and elite capture, which undermines social justice and human development, according to economist Dr Hafiz Pasha; in recent months, however, the government has taken action against electricity theft, currency smuggling, and commodity hoarding to combat these issues.
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif criticized his country's poor economic condition, comparing it to India's success in reaching the moon and stating that Pakistan has been reduced to begging for dollars while India's economy has prospered. Sharif also claimed that the Indian government had copied his economic reform order from 1990 during their own reforms in 1991. He blamed Pakistani generals for the country's plight and labeled them as the worst enemies of Pakistan.
The worsening economic situation in Pakistan is causing the poor, honest, and innocent people to struggle to survive, leading to dire consequences.
Pakistan's poverty rate has risen to 39.4% with 12.5 million more people falling below the poverty line, prompting the World Bank to urge the country to take urgent steps to achieve financial stability by taxing agriculture and real estate and cutting wasteful expenditures.
Pakistan is facing a major economic crisis with high inflation, insufficient public resources, and policy decisions influenced by vested interests, according to the World Bank. The country needs to make hard choices and prioritize coordinated, efficient, and adequately financed service delivery to improve human development outcomes. Additionally, the Pakistani Rupee has reached a record low against the US dollar.
Pakistan is facing a deep economic crisis that has negatively impacted living standards, the private sector, and the environment, and the World Bank argues that urgent policy shifts are needed to address low quality basic services, improve fiscal management, create a more dynamic and open economy, and address failures and distortions in the agri-food and energy sectors.
The author argues that there are underlying pressures responsible for an ongoing spiral of devaluation in Pakistan's economy, and these pressures make it difficult to sustain recent gains in the value of the rupee.
The inflationary environment in Pakistan is causing significant challenges for small businesses, particularly those run by women entrepreneurs, forcing them to raise prices or take out loans to manage expenses and protect profit margins, resulting in declining sales and financial hardship.
An obsession with controlling the rupee-dollar exchange rate in Pakistan has led to ineffective administrative measures and failed attempts at stabilization, as the country's heavy dependence on imports and mounting external debt hinder economic restructuring and contribute to the rupee's depreciation. The need for a long-term plan focused on increasing exports, investment, and macroeconomic stability is emphasized.
Emerging economies, including Pakistan and Egypt, are facing financial challenges and potential default risks as they gather for the World Bank and IMF meetings, amidst uncertainties in US fiscal policies and China's slowing economy, compounded by the impacts of extreme weather and climate change.
Pakistan is facing a social and economic crisis, with challenges such as low foreign direct investment, decreasing exports, high debt, inflation, and lagging development, and policymakers need to take decisive action to address these issues and prioritize national interests and security, including political stability, diplomatic initiatives with neighboring countries, and investment promotion measures.
Pakistan's economy is in dire straits, heavily reliant on external assistance and loans, with rising inflation, high poverty rates, and a plummeting Human Development Index, yet the country's military-owned enterprises continue to thrive, maintaining extraordinary financial control and leveraging their autonomy for corruption and lack of accountability.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Pakistan's economy to perform better than expected, with a growth of 2.5% this year and 5% in the next fiscal year, despite macroeconomic challenges, surpassing projections from other multilateral agencies. The IMF also maintains a global growth forecast of 3% for this year but warns of high inflation and downgrades outlooks for China and Germany.
Pakistan's external financing needs are significant and its foreign exchange reserves coverage is precarious, warns the IMF, who also highlights the growing risk to Pakistani banks from a large exposure to government debt.
Pakistan is facing a poverty crisis, with 40% of its population living below the poverty line, according to the World Bank.
The global economy faces the risk of inflation due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which could worsen an already fragile global outlook and contribute to rising oil prices, warns Standard & Poor's.
Pakistan needs to dispel four myths and adopt a reform agenda in order to access and leverage international climate finance through partnerships with the private sector and a focus on climate-smart development, as the global landscape has shifted towards lending and investments rather than grants.
