### Summary
📉 Americans could run out of savings as early as this quarter, according to a Fed study. Excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
### Facts
- 💸 As of June, US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings.
- 💰 Excess savings refer to the difference between actual savings and the pre-recession trend.
- 🔎 San Francisco Fed researchers Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira estimate that these excess savings will be exhausted by the end of the third quarter of 2023.
- 💳 Americans are using their credit cards more, accumulating nearly $1 trillion of debt.
- 📉 The downbeat forecast raises concerns about the US economy as consumer spending is crucial for growth.
### Summary
🇺🇸 61% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, according to a new report.
### Facts
- 📊 About three-quarters of consumers earning under $50,000 and 65% of those making $50,000 to $100,000 were living paycheck to paycheck in June.
- 💰 45% of those making over $100,000 reported a paycheck-to-paycheck existence.
- 💸 Inflation, rising interest rates, and inadequate savings are cited as factors contributing to financial stress.
- 😰 52% of respondents reported feeling more financially stressed than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite reaching record levels of total credit card debt and household debt, Americans are actually managing their debt better than in the past due to inflation masking the impact on balances and lower debt-to-deposit levels, according to an analysis by WalletHub. However, the rising trajectory of credit card debt and the increasing number of households carrying balances raise concerns, especially considering the high interest rates, which can take more than 17 years to pay off and cost thousands of dollars in interest. Meanwhile, savers have the opportunity to earn higher returns on cash due to higher inflation and interest rates.
The United States' pandemic-induced stimulus measures have led to the printing of nearly 80% of all dollars in circulation since 2020, resulting in severe detrimental effects on the economy, including surging prices and inflation.
A study shows that over 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation, as prices for goods and services continue to rise.
The Wall Street Journal reports a notable shift in the stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates, with some officials now seeing risks as more balanced due to easing inflation and a less overheated labor market, which could impact the timing of future rate hikes. In other news, consumer credit growth slows in July, China and Japan reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to record lows, and Russia's annual inflation rate reached 5.2% in August 2023.
US banks are experiencing significant deposit outflows, with total bank deposits plunging by over $70 billion in a week, the lowest levels since May, leading to concerns about the ongoing regional banking crisis; meanwhile, US commercial banks have also suffered significant losses in deposits, with 60% of deposits moving to higher-yielding money market funds, and the balance of unrealized losses on securities at commercial banks rising to $558 billion in Q2; to address these issues, the Federal Reserve has reached an all-time high of $107.8 billion in its banking loan facility to provide funding to distressed banks.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold off on raising interest rates, but consumers are still feeling the impact of previous hikes, with credit card rates topping 20%, mortgage rates above 7%, and auto loan rates exceeding 7%.
Almost 40% of people have increased their cash holdings since interest rate hikes started, as they seek to take advantage of current interest rates.
Consumer spending in the US increased by 0.4% in August, while core inflation fell below 4.0% for the first time in over two years, potentially reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Amid economic uncertainty, Americans are saving less, but continuing to spend, which may help the economy avoid a recession; however, many are struggling financially and have little to no savings, relying on credit card debt to make ends meet, and experts recommend building a larger emergency fund to navigate through potential economic contractions.
Americans are holding onto more cash than they need due to recession concerns, but holding cash for the long term means losing out on the rising cost of living, and with high-yield savings accounts available, there's no reason to keep cash in low-interest accounts. Experts recommend having at least 6 to 12 months of emergency funds in cash but advise against hoarding cash and instead suggest exploring higher yielding investment options.
Americans have $1.2 trillion more in excess household savings than previously estimated, which could be good news for the economy as it tries to address inflation and could delay the depletion of savings until next year, according to revised government data.
The depletion of pandemic savings and government aid in the US is leading to financial strain for low- and moderate-income households, potentially putting the nation at risk of recession by early 2024. Americans are cutting back on spending and using loans to make ends meet as stimulus checks and other forms of assistance run out.
A new report from Bankrate shows that a majority of households feel behind on saving for emergencies, with only 19% increasing their emergency savings balances since the beginning of the year, citing inflation and high household expenses as the main obstacles.
