The Federal Reserve faces new questions as the U.S. economy continues to perform well despite high interest rates, prompting economists to believe a "soft landing" is possible, with optimism rising for an acceleration of growth and a more sustainable post-pandemic economy.
U.S. equity markets rallied as tech stocks gained and Netflix shares rose on strong subscriber growth, while Foot Locker and oil stocks struggled; U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell, while cryptocurrency prices rebounded.
Equity markets historically rally after the Jackson Hole symposium, with a success rate of over 80%, despite the recent concerns about rising yields and inflation, indicating that stocks may rise despite higher rates.
The dollar is expected to continue strengthening as bond yields rise, with the Fed likely to hike rates at least once more this year, and a barrage of economic data this week will heavily influence Fed policy decisions and impact the direction of the dollar and interest rates.
Investors will have a lot to consider this week as they analyze economic indicators such as US nonfarm payrolls, wage growth, and inflation, as well as Eurozone inflation numbers and central bank commentary, all of which could impact policy decisions and market sentiment.
US equity markets were relatively stagnant last week, with major indexes trading up and down around their 200-day moving averages, indicating a lack of direction and potential resistance, while Treasury markets appeared to stabilize despite an inverted yield curve, suggesting a potential recession on the horizon. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish speech on Friday emphasized the need for caution and the possibility of higher interest rates, while Nvidia's strong earnings highlighted the company's dominance in the artificial intelligence sector.
A potential relief rally in the stock market is expected to start the week, but the upside is limited due to uncertainties about interest rates and the recent volatility, according to a Wall Street technician. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have experienced pullbacks, but a relief rally may be possible in the near term. However, the long-term trend remains uncertain, and the risk of a downturn in the financial system is elevated.
Concerns of a stock market crash are growing as economists await the release of the second-quarter GDP report, which could provide insight into the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate-hike campaign and future monetary policy changes. The report may have a significant effect on equity markets, which have been sensitive to economic data releases this year.
Wall Street is calm ahead of key economic reports that could provide insight into the job market, inflation, and potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve, while consumer confidence and job opening reports are expected to remain strong in August.
Stocks gained momentum on Tuesday as new data pointed to a cooling labor market, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising, bolstered by a decrease in job openings and a reversal in consumer confidence. The Nasdaq Composite led the gains, while the upcoming key reports on inflation and payrolls will likely shape investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
Equity markets are higher as investors consider macro data, with Wall Street experiencing a rally fueled by optimism about interest rates and job openings.
Stock investors have been reacting positively to "bad economic news" as it may imply a slowdown in the economy and a potential halt to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, however, for this trend to change, economic data would have to be much worse than it is currently.
European stock markets open higher as weak US jobs data raises expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate hikes.
Traders will have a break from the stock market on Labor Day following positive economic data that suggests a slowing economy and potentially prevents the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates, while other markets such as commodities and bonds will be closed, and stock futures are expected to rise; additionally, the crypto trade remains active.
The coming week is expected to be lighter for investors, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision being the highlight, as US markets observe Labor Day and updates on the services sector and corporate earnings are anticipated.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
Asian markets are expected to finish the week strong due to positive movements in the U.S. and Europe, although the release of economic data from China may dampen the mood, as it includes indicators such as house prices, fixed asset investment, and unemployment. The Chinese government is aiming to support the economy, but doubts remain about reaching the 5% GDP growth target and trade relations with the West continue to deteriorate. However, if investors continue with the bullish momentum from Thursday, these concerns may be temporarily set aside.
China's positive retail sales and factory production data, coupled with expectations of a peak in interest rates at major central banks, are likely to boost equity markets at the European open.
The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is generating less attention than usual, indicating that the Fed's job of pursuing maximum employment and price stability is seen as successful, with labor market data and inflation trends supporting this view.
Investors are more focused on the release of new forecasts from the Federal Reserve, which will reveal their views on the prospect of an economic "soft landing" and the rate environment that will accompany it.
Summary: The stock market made minor improvements after the Federal Reserve's announcement, with the major indexes off the lows of the day, but investors remain cautious due to economic news on Thursday.
World markets attempt to stabilize following a week of central bank decisions, as the dollar hits 6-month highs due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan remains dovish and business readouts offer some soothing economic news.
Summary: The markets have experienced various shocks this week, with the most significant one coming from the Federal Reserve, making labor data more crucial than Fed discussions.
