The US added 187,000 jobs in August, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent, indicating a plateau in the labor market as the Federal Reserve considers another interest rate hike.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its probability of a U.S recession in the next 12 months to 15% due to positive inflation and labor market data, while also predicting a reacceleration in real disposable income and expecting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged.
The leading economic indicator dropped 0.4% in August, marking the 17th consecutive month of decline, but there is no indication of a recession in the U.S.
The US economy has triggered the fourth and final signal for a potential recession, and historical data suggests that recessions will become more frequent in the future due to government interventions and other factors such as inflation, tightening monetary policy, oil price spikes, and tight government budgets.
The United States is expected to add 170,000 jobs in September, which would mark the fourth consecutive month with an increase below 200,000, potentially exacerbating the labor shortage and making it difficult for the Fed to control inflation. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall slightly to 3.7%, while wage growth is expected to rise 0.3%. The impact of labor-union strikes, such as the expanded strike by auto workers, could also affect employment growth.
U.S. job growth is expected to have slowed in September, but the unemployment rate likely decreased from a 1-1/2-year high, indicating the underlying strength of the economy; wage gains are also expected to remain elevated.
Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, exceeding economists' predictions, signaling a stronger labor market and raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates further to control inflation.
The US economy added 336,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations, but investors are concerned about the prospect of higher interest rates, causing stocks to slump and bond yields to surge.
The US economy added 336,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations and leading to concerns about higher interest rates and inflation, causing the dollar to rise and stocks to fall.
The September jobs report showed the addition of 336,000 jobs and no change in the unemployment rate at 3.8%, exceeding expectations and indicating a strong job market amidst economic headwinds.
U.S. employment increased by the most in eight months in September, pointing to a strong labor market and potentially giving the Federal Reserve reason to raise interest rates, though wage growth is slowing.
The chances of the U.S. economy avoiding a recession are improving, with recession odds dropping to 46 percent, the lowest since the first quarter of 2022, according to economists surveyed by Bankrate. However, risks of a recession remain, with more than 2 in 5 economists suggesting that the chances are still greater than 50 percent.
Economists are predicting that the U.S. economy is less likely to experience a recession in the next year, with the likelihood dropping below 50% for the first time since last year, thanks to factors such as falling inflation, the Federal Reserve halting interest rate hikes, and a strong labor market.
