### Summary
Gold prices have continued to decline due to rising US treasury yields and a stronger dollar. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed concerns about inflation and the potential need for additional interest rate hikes. The outlook for gold prices remains subdued ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech.
### Facts
- 📉 Gold prices have declined for the fourth consecutive week, breaking below the significant threshold of $1,900 per troy ounce and reaching their lowest point since March 2023.
- 📈 The continuous rise in US treasury yields and the dollar index has contributed to the decline in gold prices.
- 📊 US economic indicators, such as retail sales and manufacturing production, have outperformed expectations, highlighting resilient consumer spending and propelling the dollar index.
- 💸 The FOMC meeting minutes revealed concerns about inflation and the potential need for additional interest rate hikes, although two Fed officials favored keeping rates unchanged or pursuing a rate cut.
- 🇨🇳 Weakening sentiment in China and diverging monetary policies have also contributed to the strengthening dollar.
- 📆 The upcoming week will focus on flash manufacturing PMI figures and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to address the economic outlook.
### Potential Implications
- ⬇️ Gold prices are expected to remain subdued in anticipation of Powell's speech, as elevated yields and a stronger dollar continue to impact the market.
### Summary
Saudi Arabia's stock market ended higher on Sunday due to the rise in oil prices, although gains were limited as investors awaited further interest rate insight from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
### Facts
- 📈 Saudi Arabia's benchmark index gained 0.4%.
- 🚀 Petrochemical maker Saudi Basic Industries Corp rose 1.7%.
- 💹 Riyad Bank increased by 1.8%.
- ⛽️ Oil prices rose about 1% following a slump in U.S. crude production, leading to an anticipated supply tightness.
- 👥 Qatar's index edged 0.1% higher, boosted by a 1.3% gain in Commercial Bank.
- 📰 Investors will scrutinize a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for clues about the interest rate outlook.
- 💱 Gulf countries tend to follow the Fed's rate move as most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar.
- 🇰🇼 Only the Kuwaiti dinar is pegged to a currency basket that includes the dollar.
- 📈 Egypt's blue-chip index added 0.4%, with tobacco monopoly Easter Company advancing 2.9%.
### Summary
- European stocks rebound after a drop last week, while bond yields rise ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole event.
- China's smaller-than-expected rate cuts and weak economic data disappointed investors.
### Facts
- 📈 European stocks edge higher after last week's rout.
- 📉 China stocks hit a 9-month low as rate easing underwhelms.
- China's central bank trims its one-year lending rate by 10 basis points, while leaving its five-year rate unchanged.
- Expectation remains for further stimulus from China.
- Asian shares decline due to disappointment, with Chinese blue chips falling to a nine-month low.
- Energy companies outperform as oil prices rise.
- Oil prices edge higher after a seven-week winning streak.
- Bond market sell-off leads to higher government borrowing costs.
- U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 30-year yield touching a fresh 12-year high.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference is the key event for the week.
- Markets anticipate that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address rising yields and strong economic data.
- Polls indicate that a majority of analysts believe the Fed is done hiking rates.
- Traders bet on a just under 40% chance of a final Fed hike by November.
- U.S. dollar trades flat after five weeks of gains.
- Gold prices affected negatively by the rise of the dollar and yields.
- Prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supported by a potential strike at Australian offshore facilities.
- Dutch payments processor Adyen's shares drop amid concerns over weak earnings.
- Earnings from Nvidia will be closely watched.
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Stocks finished lower for a third day due to higher yields, with all three major U.S. indexes ending in the red.
Stock indices are in the red as existing home sales in the US for July fell below expectations, indicating ongoing difficulties in homeownership, while major retailers' earnings and concerns over persistent inflation are also impacting the market.
Weak manufacturing data in major economies led to a decrease in oil prices, despite a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stocks, while market focus is on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on interest rate outlook, and Iran's oil output is predicted to increase despite U.S. sanctions.
Oil prices edge higher in an uncertain market as US crude futures rise 0.1% to $78.94 a barrel, despite a 2% drop for the week, due to production cuts by major oil producers and a mixed US economy.
Stock indices finished the trading session in the green, with gains seen in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, Texas manufacturing experienced a downturn in August, and gas prices have slipped across the country. U.S. stock futures are trending higher, and traders are awaiting key economic releases and earnings reports this week. In Asian markets, indices ended higher, but Evergrande Group's shares plunged while Xpeng's shares rallied.
U.S. stocks rose after August jobs data showed a slowdown in the pace of job gains, calming investor concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.5%, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.3%.
Stock investors have been reacting positively to "bad economic news" as it may imply a slowdown in the economy and a potential halt to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, however, for this trend to change, economic data would have to be much worse than it is currently.
Oil prices jumped over 2.5% after OPEC+ members extended supply reductions, with Brent International topping $90 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate hovering above $87 per barrel, as Saudi Arabia announced an extension of its production cut and Russia reduced its exports. Despite slow recovery and increased production, crude futures have rallied more than 25% since late June, with experts predicting prices to continue rising unless a recession occurs. China's demand for petrochemicals has been dampened, but their mobility demand post-lockdowns has offset this.
Stock indices finished today’s trading session in the red, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all falling. The technology sector was the session's laggard, while the utilities sector was the leader. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield increased, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve's latest GDPNow reading estimates that the economy will expand by about 5.6% in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report, noting a tourism boom but slower spending in other areas. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index came in higher than expected, and mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since 1996. The U.S. trade deficit widened less than expected in July. U.S. stock futures inched lower, and European indices trended lower. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed.
Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices could reach $107 per barrel next year if OPEC+ producers maintain their production cuts, although this is not their base-case scenario.
Rising oil prices are making it harder for the Federal Reserve to achieve its 2% inflation target, as increased energy costs could lead to higher prices for goods and services, potentially complicating the Fed's plan to hold interest rates steady and achieve a "soft landing" for the economy.
Most stock markets in the Gulf rose in response to a rise in oil prices, except for the Saudi index which closed lower; however, the International Monetary Fund predicts a further slowdown in Saudi Arabia's GDP growth due to the extension of oil production cuts.
Stock indices finished today’s trading session in the green, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all gaining, while the energy sector fell and the consumer discretionary sector led; individuals held a relatively steady stance on inflation expectations but had growing concerns regarding employment prospects and obtaining credit, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence in the stability of the U.S. economy, citing controlled inflation and positive employment trends.
Stock indices closed in the red, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all experiencing declines, while the technology sector underperformed and the energy sector led the session. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield dropped, while the Two-Year Treasury yield increased. The Small Business Optimism Index for August decreased, with inflation cited as a major concern among small business owners. Stocks opened lower on Tuesday, and U.S. futures trended lower as well. This week's focus will be on the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision on rate hikes. Oracle's stock fell after missing sales estimates, while Casey's General and Tesla saw gains. JPMorgan's CEO criticized new Basel III regulations, and European indices traded in the green. In Asia-Pacific, markets ended mixed as traders await U.S. inflation data.
Stocks rise as reports suggest the US economy is strong, but inflation remains a concern.
Oil prices continue to rise as OPEC+ supply cuts tighten the market, with Brent crude surpassing $94 a barrel and speculators increasing bullish wagers on Brent and West Texas Intermediate, leading to concerns about inflationary pressures.
Gasoline prices are rising due to oil supply cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as flooding in Libya, but some experts believe that increasing oil prices will not have a significant impact on the US economy and do not expect them to rise much higher in the next year or two due to factors such as increased US oil production, slow global economic growth, and the green energy transition. However, high oil prices can lead to higher inflation, potential recession, and could influence the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but the impact may not be as severe as in the past, and some experts recommend investing in the energy transition and adopting a more defensive investment strategy.
Stocks mostly lower as investors await Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and assess new economic data showing easing core inflation and a cooling labor market, with expectations high for the Fed to hold rates steady.
The positive momentum surrounding Bitcoin's price is fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates again this year, while market participants remain optimistic despite the strength of the United States Dollar Index.
Chevron CEO says the economy can handle rising oil prices, with prices on track to reach $100 per barrel due to supply constraints and a resilient global economy.
The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is generating less attention than usual, indicating that the Fed's job of pursuing maximum employment and price stability is seen as successful, with labor market data and inflation trends supporting this view.
US stock futures rise as investors await Fed decision on rates; US debt rises to $33 trillion as government shutdown looms; Federal Reserve expected to pause rate hikes; Impact of government shutdown, autoworkers strike, and rising oil prices on the economy; Biden reshapes the Federal Reserve.
Goldman Sachs predicts that crude oil prices could reach $100 a barrel, posing a risk to global economic growth and complicating central bankers' efforts to control inflation, which could impact interest rate policies and further increase gasoline prices.
Rising oil prices, closing in on $100 a barrel, pose a threat to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, as higher oil prices can drive up the cost of gasoline and other crude-related products and squeeze the Consumer Prices Index higher.
The Federal Reserve plans to continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities, which will have an impact on stock markets, while keeping interest rates at current levels due to the lagged effect of monetary policy and the need for the commercial real estate market to adjust; however, there are concerns about the impact of tighter credit conditions on hiring and an increase in strikes, particularly in the auto industry. Elevated interest rates will pressure dividend-income investors and affect Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), while the reduction of securities by the Fed may lead to a decline in stock indices. The Fed is considering raising rates in November or December but is uncertain about how long rates will remain at current levels. The core personal consumption expenditure is falling, and rising energy prices are increasing overall inflation, but the Fed is excluding energy prices due to volatility and suggests that high oil prices may impact its stance in the future. Stock market traders have a short-term time frame and may find instruments like Instacart (CART) and Arm (ARM) more suitable, while long-term investors should prepare for the market adjusting to the Fed's restrictive policy by moving capital gains into money market funds, considering energy stocks at lower prices, and being cautious of high-flying technology stocks and IPOs.
The Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged but indicated the possibility of one more rate hike, causing U.S. markets to slump and Treasury yields to rise, while European markets saw gains; Instacart shares sank, Klaviyo shares jumped, and Arm shares continued to slide; UK inflation for August was lower than expected, throwing the Bank of England's next move into question; Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month oil price forecast to $100 per barrel.
U.S. stocks are expected to open lower and the dollar is soaring after the Federal Reserve indicated that interest rates will remain higher for a longer period, while the Bank of England faces a tough rate decision and the Swiss National Bank has paused its rate-hiking cycle.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged while revising its forecasts for economic growth, unemployment, and inflation, indicating a "higher for longer" stance on interest rates and potentially only one more rate hike this year. The Fed aims to achieve a soft landing for the economy and believes it can withstand higher rates, but external complications such as rising oil prices and an auto strike could influence future decisions.
Investors are focusing on the release of economic reports on GDP and inflation as they evaluate the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and its efforts to cool down inflation. Metal prices have slipped due to concerns over global demand and the economy, and the risk of a government shutdown is also adding to the bearish sentiment. Earnings reports from various companies and core PCE inflation data are expected in the week ahead.
Stock indices are mixed in today's trading session, with the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey reporting a decline in factory activity and U.S. stock futures trending higher due to concerns over high interest rates, rising bond yields, increasing oil prices, and possible government shutdown, while European indices have turned red and Asia-Pacific markets end mixed.
Bitcoin price is expected to move higher and may attempt to push toward the 50% retracement level, while Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on September 28 may hint at another potential rate hike and the PCE Price Index on September 29 is unlikely to have a significant impact on the crypto markets, with the SEC likely to delay the approval of Hashdex's filing for the spot Bitcoin ETFs and the potential approval of the first Ethereum futures ETF on October 2.
Michael Santoli, senior markets commentator at CNBC, discusses the outlook for the fixed income market, the state of the economy, and the stock market. He notes that the bond market is starting to register the Federal Reserve's plans to keep rates higher for longer, and that real yields are increasing due to higher inflation expectations and concerns over the size of current federal deficits and Treasury issuance. Santoli also suggests that it is still too early to fully understand the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity gains, and that the recent uptick in headline inflation is not expected to change the Federal Reserve's stance. He also notes that the stock market has been range-bound and indecisive, with some pockets of weakness in consumer cyclicals, but that the market is still pricing in somewhat benign economic conditions. Santoli highlights the concentration of the market in a few mega-cap growth stocks and the undervaluation of small-cap stocks, and discusses the outlook for the 60/40 portfolio in light of higher bond yields.
Stock indices closed in the red as the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all experienced declines, while the utilities sector fell the most and the energy sector led despite still seeing a decrease; in addition, economic data including the Consumer Confidence report and US New Home Sales data reflected lower than expected figures, and stocks opened lower in Tuesday's trading session with the Case-Shiller Home Price Index suggesting continued rising demand for homes; JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a rise in interest rates to 7% could be painful for the global economy, and US Futures and WTI crude oil futures were trending down.
Oil majors ExxonMobil, Chevron, and BP are near buy points as U.S. crude oil prices continue to rise above $90 per barrel.
A spike in crude oil prices to the highest level of the year adds to the challenges faced by world markets, leaving investors turning to the Federal Reserve chair for reassurance amidst concerns over inflation, a potential government shutdown, unresolved autoworker strikes, and the Chinese property sector bust.
Oil prices hit their highest levels in over a year as ongoing production cuts raise concerns about the global economy, while the specter of $100 oil looms and supply tightness becomes apparent with reduced stockpiles and increased refining. Higher interest rates may dampen crude demand, but for now, the focus remains on supply.
The major stock indexes are expected to open lower as the 10-year Treasury yield hits a 16-year high, with investors monitoring employment data for potential impact on interest rates; meanwhile, stock futures in Asia and Europe slumped as the Federal Reserve's message of higher interest rates reverberates worldwide.
Stocks slumped as the bond rout continues and one Fed policymaker predicted another interest rate hike this year, with the Nasdaq falling 0.5% and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.4%.
US oil prices and energy stocks, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum, fell as crude oil inventories decreased but gasoline stockpiles increased, while the outlook for demand remains uncertain and refinery stocks struggle.
Stocks slip as U.S. crude futures drop and mortgage rates climb, while investors await payroll data for signs of a slowing job market; electric vehicle stocks like Rivian and Lucid are making moves, and the U.S. Dollar Index rises for its 12th consecutive week. European stocks close mixed, and utilities stocks see their worst year in over a decade due to higher bond yields.
Stock indices finished in the red as sentiment soured and Fedspeak weighed on the markets, with the consumer staples sector experiencing the biggest decline and the real estate sector leading the session's gains, while U.S. treasury yields decreased and the Atlanta Fed's latest estimate suggests the economy will expand by about 4.9% in the third quarter.
U.S. stock futures rise as investors await the release of Fed minutes and consider hints from officials about potential interest rate hikes; ExxonMobil is expected to announce a $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer; Birkenstock prices its IPO at $46 per share.
The U.S. stock market is currently trading at a discount to fair value, and Morningstar expects rates to come down faster due to optimism on inflation; strong growth is projected in Q3, but the economy may slow down in Q4, and inflation is expected to fall in 2023 and reach the Fed's 2% target in 2024. The report also provides outlooks for various sectors, including technology, energy, and utilities, and highlights some top stock picks. The fixed-income outlook suggests that while interest rates may rise in the short term, rates are expected to come down over time, making it a good time for longer-term fixed-income investments. The corporate bond market has outperformed this year, and although bankruptcies and downgrades may increase, investors are still being adequately compensated for the risks.
