European stock markets rise as German producer prices drop, China's rate cut disappoints, and the UK housing market slumps; oil prices rebound on tight supplies and expectations of lower output.
The short-covering rally in petroleum prices stalled as prices and positions reached long-term averages and the summer holiday season caused a slowdown in position-taking by hedge funds and other money managers.
China's economic slowdown, marked by falling consumer prices, a deepening real estate crisis, and a slump in exports, has alarmed international leaders and investors, causing Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index to fall into a bear market and prompting major investment banks to downgrade their growth forecasts for China below 5%.
The US economy shows signs of slowing towards the end of summer, with the services-sector index falling to a six-month low and the manufacturing-sector index remaining in negative territory, suggesting a near-stall in business activity and raising doubts about the strength of economic growth in Q3.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm across the world, as it is expected to have a negative impact on global economic growth, leading to reduced imports and trade, falling commodity prices, a deflationary effect on global goods prices, and a decline in tourism and luxury spending.
Asian markets will be influenced by economic indicators, policy steps, and diplomatic signals from China, as well as reacting to the Jackson Hole speeches, purchasing managers index reports, GDP data, and inflation figures throughout the week, with investors desperate for signs of economic improvement as China's industrial profits continue to slump and authorities take measures to stimulate the capital market.
Oil prices increase as China takes steps to support its economy, but concerns about global growth, US interest rate hikes, and Chinese manufacturing data persist.
Stocks anticipate Friday's jobs data report, China's economic situation worsens, and oil demand is under pressure due to elevated interest rates and the threat of Tropical Storm Idalia.
Oil prices inched up on Monday as China implemented measures to support its struggling economy, although concerns about economic growth and potential US interest rate hikes continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The move by China to halve stamp duty on stock trading and the soft-landing scenario for the US economy helped boost oil prices, while the possibility of a hurricane hitting Florida could lead to short-term support for the oil price. However, the anticipation of easing sanctions on Iran and Venezuela has weakened the narrative of tightening supply.
Global markets are watching for the latest round of retailer earnings reports as well as the release of the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while European indexes are being boosted by a jump in commodity prices linked to China's stimulus measures.
Global markets show mixed performance, with Japan, China, Hong Kong, India, and Australia experiencing modest gains, while the US markets closed higher fueled by optimism over a possible pause in interest-rate hikes, as oil prices extend gains and gold prices remain near three-week highs.
Oil prices eased as China's manufacturing activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month, raising concerns about the weak expansion in the world's second-largest economy, while investors await the release of the US personal consumption expenditure report.
UBS reports higher than expected profits, job creation in the US slows, and markets rally on weaker economic data and hope for a pause in interest rate hikes. China's factory activity shrinks but at a slower pace, while retail sales increase. There are opportunities for investors in other Asian markets.
The global economy is expected to slow down due to persistently high inflation, higher interest rates, China's slowing growth, and financial system stresses, according to Moody's Investors Service, although there may be pockets of resilience in markets like India and Indonesia.
The US job market shows signs of slowing but remains resilient, with 187,000 jobs added in August and a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.8%, as more people actively look for work. Wage gains are easing, signaling a potential slowdown in inflation, and the Federal Reserve may decide against further interest rate hikes.
The slowdown in China's property market continues despite government measures to revive the economy, with analysts warning that the sentiment among many Chinese is too weak for these moves to be effective.
Traders will have a break from the stock market on Labor Day following positive economic data that suggests a slowing economy and potentially prevents the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates, while other markets such as commodities and bonds will be closed, and stock futures are expected to rise; additionally, the crypto trade remains active.
Oil prices dipped as concerns over China's slow post-pandemic recovery and weak global economic data outweighed expectations of supply cuts by OPEC+ producers.
Market jitters persist despite economists downplaying the chances of a recession, as global stocks and US futures remain in the red and inflation fears continue to linger.
The outlook for oil prices and Chinese demand, OPEC+ supply curbs, rising flows of Iranian crude, and the transition away from fossil fuels are among the key topics discussed at Asia's largest gathering of industry traders and executives.
China's economy is showing signs of slowing down, including a decrease in GDP growth rate, declining exports, deflationary consumer price index, high youth unemployment, a weakening yuan, and a decrease in new loans, which could have global implications.
China's consumer prices rose slightly and the decline in factory-gate prices slowed in August, indicating easing deflation pressures and signs of stabilization in the economy, although more policy support is needed to boost consumer demand.
Oil prices surge to the highest level in 10 months as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend production cuts, raising concerns about inflation and higher interest rates, while the resilient U.S. economy strengthens prospects for interest rate hikes; tensions escalate in the auto sector as contract negotiations with major automakers continue; GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen faces scrutiny from the SEC over stock trades; Apple's market value plummets due to concerns over China's ban on public workers using foreign-branded devices; semiconductor stocks weaken amid export restrictions on China; energy sector excels while industrials and utilities lag; upcoming key economic data to watch includes inflation rate, Producer Price Index, retail sales figures, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.
Most stock markets in the Gulf rose in response to a rise in oil prices, except for the Saudi index which closed lower; however, the International Monetary Fund predicts a further slowdown in Saudi Arabia's GDP growth due to the extension of oil production cuts.
European markets were stagnant as investors awaited a decision from the European Central Bank on whether to raise interest rates for the tenth consecutive meeting, while carmaker shares dropped following an investigation into electric vehicle subsidies by the European Commission and concerns over Chinese retaliation. Additionally, the oil market is keeping a close eye on the possibility of crude prices reaching $100 a barrel as Saudi Arabia and Russia plan to extend production cuts until the end of 2023.
The stock market is disregarding signs of an economic slowdown, despite historical evidence suggesting it could be a cause for concern.
Stock markets pause as traders await next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision and keep an eye on economic data and the impact of the partial strike by the United Auto Workers.
Gasoline prices are rising due to oil supply cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as flooding in Libya, but some experts believe that increasing oil prices will not have a significant impact on the US economy and do not expect them to rise much higher in the next year or two due to factors such as increased US oil production, slow global economic growth, and the green energy transition. However, high oil prices can lead to higher inflation, potential recession, and could influence the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but the impact may not be as severe as in the past, and some experts recommend investing in the energy transition and adopting a more defensive investment strategy.
