Jobs report, China slowdown, oil demand: 3 Things
Stocks anticipate Friday's jobs data report, China's economic situation worsens, and oil demand is under pressure due to elevated interest rates and the threat of Tropical Storm Idalia.
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Posted 8/28/2023, 1:16:35 PM
yahoo.com
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China's slowing economy and worsening macroeconomic indicators may be good news for oil prices, as it could lead to changes in monetary policies and stimulate global demand for oil. Investing in oil ETFs, particularly the Energy Select SPDR Fund (XLE), which includes stable and profitable companies, may be a reliable option. There are risks involved, but with tight oil supply and central banks' desire to avoid an economic downturn, oil assets could still be favorable.
China's stock market has experienced a bearish performance recently, with the benchmark stock index reaching a 9-month low, and there are concerns about the longer-term equilibrium interest rate highlighted by Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
Asian stocks, particularly Chinese markets, may find some relief after Wall Street's resilience in the face of rising bond yields, though economic data from China remains underwhelming and foreign investors continue to sell Chinese stocks.
Volatility and rising interest rates have caused a pullback in U.S. equity markets, particularly impacting the technology sector, but investors should not panic as pullbacks are normal in a bull market and present buying opportunities. China's deteriorating economic conditions and weak seasonal trends have also contributed to the selling pressure. However, support is expected to be found in the 4,200 to 4,300 range in the S&P 500, and the Federal Reserve's likely end to the rate-hiking cycle and improved earnings should provide fundamental support for investors to buy the dip.
This article does not mention any specific stocks. The author's advice is to rotate out of historically overvalued financial assets and into historically undervalued critical resources. The author's core argument is that there is a high probability of a recession in the next twelve months, and they believe that the Fed's policies will contribute to this recession. The author also highlights potential risks in the junk bond market, the private equity industry, and the banking sector.
Global investors are skeptical of China's ability to stabilize its financial markets, with many predicting that economic pressures will cause the offshore exchange rate of the yuan to reach record lows.
Stock futures rise as investors await economic data and the monthly jobs report, while tech companies Instacart, Klaviyo, and Arm file for IPOs, China Evergrande Group's shares plummet, and meme stock Bed Bath & Beyond continues to trade despite bankruptcy.
The markets are facing numerous headwinds, including an imbalanced U.S. economy, stubborn inflation, a looming recession in Europe and China, a bulging deficit, reduced market liquidity, rising geopolitical risk, and high price earnings ratios, making above-average cash reserves a sensible choice for investors.
Oil prices inched up on Monday as China implemented measures to support its struggling economy, although concerns about economic growth and potential US interest rate hikes continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The move by China to halve stamp duty on stock trading and the soft-landing scenario for the US economy helped boost oil prices, while the possibility of a hurricane hitting Florida could lead to short-term support for the oil price. However, the anticipation of easing sanctions on Iran and Venezuela has weakened the narrative of tightening supply.
China stocks rise as investors welcome Beijing's efforts to support the market, while bonds rally and the dollar dips on possibly softening U.S. data.
Stocks were relatively unchanged as investors awaited new economic indicators and data on the health of the US economy, including consumer confidence, jobs openings, and inflation reports, which could impact expectations for future interest-rate rises from the Federal Reserve.
Stocks gained momentum on Tuesday as new data pointed to a cooling labor market, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising, bolstered by a decrease in job openings and a reversal in consumer confidence. The Nasdaq Composite led the gains, while the upcoming key reports on inflation and payrolls will likely shape investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
US stocks surged on Tuesday after new jobs data showed a decline in job openings, potentially easing wage pressures and giving the Federal Reserve room to adjust interest rates.
Markets show signs of slowing after new economic data, with focus on Friday's jobs report and the possibility of a pause on rate increases. Oil prices are impacted by Chinese factory activity and expectations of supply cuts.
Asian stock markets mostly lower as Japanese factory activity and Chinese service industry growth weaken, while Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 rises on hopes that economic data will convince the Federal Reserve that inflation is under control.
U.S. stock futures rise ahead of inflation and jobs data, with the key jobs report on Friday being the main focus for investors as they assess the possibility of interest rate changes.
U.S. stocks rose after August jobs data showed a slowdown in the pace of job gains, calming investor concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.5%, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.3%.
Most stock markets in the Gulf ended lower due to a contraction in factory activity in China, dampening investor sentiment.
Stock investors have been reacting positively to "bad economic news" as it may imply a slowdown in the economy and a potential halt to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, however, for this trend to change, economic data would have to be much worse than it is currently.
Equities rose on Monday as market participants speculated that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its interest rate hike cycle, following a positive US jobs report and signs of a softening labor market. Additionally, investors were hopeful that China would implement measures to stimulate its economy and property sector.
Asian stocks are expected to open lower as attention shifts to China's efforts to improve its economy and European shares provide a weak lead for investors, while crude oil futures remain near nine-month highs.
Stocks in Asia rose as investors were encouraged by a report indicating a cooling US jobs market, potentially leading to a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's campaign to raise interest rates and slow the economy.
Wall Street stocks opened lower as traders grappled with concerns over China's struggling economy and climbing Treasury yields, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones slightly down and the Nasdaq Composite slipping, while the focus remains on the Federal Reserve and seasonal market forces.
U.S. stocks slipped as worrying data out of China and a spike in oil prices following the extension of Saudi Arabian production cuts weighed on the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.4% and the Nasdaq dipped 0.1%.
Stocks were lower on Tuesday as September began, with oil prices reaching new highs and Treasury yields rising, putting pressure on the market, while traders awaited more economic data to determine the likelihood of another rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
Stocks on Wall Street are expected to decline as concerns about inflation raise doubts about the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates, while worries about crumbling demand and falling German industrial orders add to the uncertainty.
US stocks are experiencing their worst performance in September since 1928, but there are signs that the market could avoid a steep downturn this year, with indicators suggesting more stability and positive gains for the rest of the year, according to Mark Hackett, chief of research at US investment firm Nationwide. However, challenges such as elevated oil prices and inflation could put strain on the stock market and the US economy.
Oil prices surge to the highest level in 10 months as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend production cuts, raising concerns about inflation and higher interest rates, while the resilient U.S. economy strengthens prospects for interest rate hikes; tensions escalate in the auto sector as contract negotiations with major automakers continue; GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen faces scrutiny from the SEC over stock trades; Apple's market value plummets due to concerns over China's ban on public workers using foreign-branded devices; semiconductor stocks weaken amid export restrictions on China; energy sector excels while industrials and utilities lag; upcoming key economic data to watch includes inflation rate, Producer Price Index, retail sales figures, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.
Chinese stocks have passed the worst of the selling pressure and are still attractive to investors due to their cheap valuation and potential for growth, according to CLSA. However, Beijing needs to address concerns and risks in the economy. The MSCI China Index has fallen this year, but a pause in the Federal Reserve's tightening policy is expected to reverse market pessimism.
Stock prices in Asia were mostly higher as investors awaited updates on U.S. inflation and China's economic data, while concerns about rising oil prices and possible higher interest rates weighed on markets.
U.S. stock futures rise as investors await key inflation data and economic indicators ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, while positive economic news from China boosts global risk sentiment.
Asian markets are expected to be on the defensive due to sagging stocks and rising oil prices, as investors await U.S. inflation figures that will impact the Fed's rate decision; China's real estate sector is seen as the most likely source of a global systemic credit event.
Stocks rise as reports suggest the US economy is strong, but inflation remains a concern.
China's macroeconomic challenges, including deflationary pressures, yuan depreciation, and a struggling property sector, could have broader implications beyond its borders, impacting global metal exporters, trade deals, and global inflation; however, investing in China's stocks may offer compelling valuations despite the current downturn.
The performance of Alibaba and JD.com stocks suggests that investors are uncertain about whether China's economy is improving despite positive Chinese data.
China's stock market has slumped due to worrying economic data including falling prices, missed expectations in retail sales and industrial production, and plunging real estate investment, leading analysts to express concerns about an impending downward spiral in the Chinese economy.
Stocks mostly lower as investors await Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and assess new economic data showing easing core inflation and a cooling labor market, with expectations high for the Fed to hold rates steady.
Asian stocks sink as investors await the Federal Reserve's policy decision and concerns over inflation rise due to a surge in oil prices.
Stocks slip as investors await the Federal Reserve's policy meeting and the start of Instacart's IPO trading, with focus on interest rates and inflation.
Stock indices are in the red as oil prices continue to rise, with Chevron's CEO predicting prices could reach $100 per barrel due to reduced US shale oil output and OPEC's supply cuts, while the US Federal Reserve is holding off on easing liquidity until there is a significant reduction in wages to counterbalance a current yearly wage increase of 4.3% and maintain a 2% inflation rate.
Global stocks eased as a drop in U.S. homebuilding highlighted the challenges the Federal Reserve faces in managing inflation, while oil prices rose and investors await rate decisions from major central banks.
Investor negativity towards Chinese stocks is starting to shift as money managers halt or slow down cuts to their exposure, despite a bearish tilt in the market, signaling a potential change in sentiment and reliance on fundamental factors rather than hope for recovery.
China is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rates as oil prices rise and market sentiment is affected; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, Japan's trade data, and the United Nations General Assembly will also influence Asian markets.
UBS Investment Bank suggests that the stock slump in China is almost over and investors should be more optimistic about the market outlook, as economic fundamentals have improved and technical signals indicate a potential market rebound.
Equity markets in Asia are expected to face selling pressure due to worsening risk sentiment and concerns about higher interest rates signaled by the Federal Reserve, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and a fall in futures for benchmarks in Australia and Japan.
The Federal Reserve's plans for prolonged elevated interest rates may continue to put pressure on stocks and bonds, although some investors doubt that the central bank will follow through with its projections.
U.S. stock prices are in a danger zone that could trigger "mechanical selling" and accelerate a downward move, according to strategist Charlie McElligott, as surging Treasury yields and a hawkish Federal Reserve put pressure on growth stocks, potentially leading to options dealers selling stock futures and exacerbating the market weakness.
Chinese stocks defy regional declines as tech stocks rise, while the 10-year Treasury yield slightly decreases from a 16-year high; US futures tick higher following a 1.6% slide in the S&P 500; bond yields rise in Australia and New Zealand after positive US labor market data; and India's sovereign debt is set to be included in JPMorgan's benchmark emerging-markets index.
Stocks may not be as negatively impacted by higher interest rates as some fear, as the Federal Reserve's forecast of sustained economic growth justifies the higher rates and could lead to increased stock valuations.