Oil prices edge higher in an uncertain market as US crude futures rise 0.1% to $78.94 a barrel, despite a 2% drop for the week, due to production cuts by major oil producers and a mixed US economy.
Oil futures rose to a one-week high due to a surge in U.S. diesel prices, a decrease in oil rigs, and a fire at a Louisiana refinery, despite weak economic data and a stronger dollar.
Diesel prices in the US have reached their highest levels since March and are expected to continue rising due to refinery disruptions and increased demand during the fall agricultural harvest season and winter heating months, posing challenges for retailers and putting upward pressure on prices.
Oil prices jumped over 2.5% after OPEC+ members extended supply reductions, with Brent International topping $90 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate hovering above $87 per barrel, as Saudi Arabia announced an extension of its production cut and Russia reduced its exports. Despite slow recovery and increased production, crude futures have rallied more than 25% since late June, with experts predicting prices to continue rising unless a recession occurs. China's demand for petrochemicals has been dampened, but their mobility demand post-lockdowns has offset this.
India's road transport minister has warned automakers to reduce production of polluting diesel vehicles or face higher taxes and levies, raising concerns in the country's car market, which is the third-largest in the world; petrol vehicles have been the top sellers in recent years, while diesel carmakers have seen a decline in market share, although diesel variants remain popular in the luxury segment.
The prices of petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) are expected to increase by Rs16 per litre and Rs13.66 per litre, respectively, in the upcoming fortnightly review, due to rising global oil prices and depreciation of the rupee against the dollar.
US crude oil prices have surged and the futures strip has moved into a sharp backwardation as inventories have drained away from the NYMEX delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma, but this may be exaggerating the tightness of supplies across the rest of the country and the world.
The tightening distillates market is expected to drive up diesel prices, increase manufacturing and trucking costs, and potentially contribute to inflationary pressures.
China's diesel exports surged in August, nearly tripling compared to the same time last year, as refiners capitalize on strong refining margins and increased demand for gasoline and jet fuel, driven by a recovery in road traffic and domestic flight capacity.
Gasoline prices are rising due to oil supply cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as flooding in Libya, but some experts believe that increasing oil prices will not have a significant impact on the US economy and do not expect them to rise much higher in the next year or two due to factors such as increased US oil production, slow global economic growth, and the green energy transition. However, high oil prices can lead to higher inflation, potential recession, and could influence the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but the impact may not be as severe as in the past, and some experts recommend investing in the energy transition and adopting a more defensive investment strategy.
Rising crude oil prices, driven by supply concerns and output cuts, threaten to push up petrol prices and hinder efforts to tame inflation, putting pressure on central bankers.
The increased exports of oil from the United States into Europe and Asia have allowed U.S. crude to regain its dominance in setting international oil prices, reducing volatility and potential market distortion, while also shifting power to U.S. companies and traders in the market.
