The US banking industry could face a significant drop in stock prices within the next 16 months if the economy enters a recession, according to macro guru Hugh Hendry.
The US economy shows signs of slowing towards the end of summer, with the services-sector index falling to a six-month low and the manufacturing-sector index remaining in negative territory, suggesting a near-stall in business activity and raising doubts about the strength of economic growth in Q3.
The flash surveys from S&P Global show a slowdown in US manufacturing and services sectors, raising concerns about economic growth in the third quarter and indicating a possible contraction in September due to weak demand and rising input costs.
Employment growth in the US likely cooled and wage increases moderated in August, reducing the urgency for another interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve and tempering inflation risks.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which could lead to softer consumer spending and a decrease in stock market returns. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card addiction pose further uncertainties for the economy. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a contraction and a prolonged recession, which is a stark contrast to its past economic outperformance.
Job creation in the United States slowed more than expected in August, a sign that the resilient economy might be starting to ease under pressure from higher interest rates.
The US economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter, but still showed more strength than expected, with GDP revised down to 2.1% from an initial 2.4%; however, forecasts indicate a robust reading in the third quarter of 2.5% or higher, despite concerns of a potential recession.
Job growth in the US slowed in August, signaling the impact of high interest rates, which has given traders hope that the Federal Reserve might pause hikes; US stocks rallied on the news, with the S&P 500 on a four-day winning streak and regaining some of August's losses.
U.S. job growth is slowing down but remains steady, with the unemployment rate settling at 3.5% in July and predictions that the August jobs report will show similar results, although concerns remain regarding potential slowdowns and negative growth.
The US dollar has experienced a significant bounce in August, driven by strong US economic data and upward revisions to growth forecasts, making it the only G-10 economy to see positive revisions and outperform the rest of the G-10 currencies this month.
The decline in euro zone business activity accelerated faster than expected last month, with the services industry falling into contraction, raising concerns of a possible recession.
China's services sector experienced a slowdown in business activity, resulting in the lowest level in eight months, as weaker foreign demand and sluggish overseas orders impacted consumption, despite economic stimulus efforts.
U.S. manufacturers reported a decline in business activity for the 10th consecutive month in August, but the declines are becoming less widespread, suggesting that the trough in the cycle may be approaching.
India's services industry experienced a slight slowdown in August, but overall conditions remained strong with record-high exports, indicating that the country will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy.
China's economy is showing signs of slowing down, with indicators such as GDP growth, exports, consumer price index, youth unemployment, yuan depreciation, and a decrease in new loans pointing to potential trouble ahead.
The U.S. economy experienced modest growth in July and August, driven by pent-up demand for leisure activities, while nonessential retail sales slowed, according to the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" survey.
China's consumer prices rose slightly and the decline in factory-gate prices slowed in August, indicating easing deflation pressures and signs of stabilization in the economy, although more policy support is needed to boost consumer demand.
Mortgage rates have slightly decreased from their peak in late August, but future trends will depend on the economy and inflation rates, with potential decreases if inflation slows and the Federal Reserve stops increasing its benchmark rate.
US inflation is expected to continue its slowdown in the coming months due to easing car prices, declining rents, and a potential slowdown in the job market.
US home sales are expected to experience the largest slowdown since 2011, with Fannie Mae forecasting a decline in sales due to higher mortgage rates and a weakening US economy.
The leading economic indicator dropped 0.4% in August, marking the 17th consecutive month of decline, but there is no indication of a recession in the U.S.
The difference between two consumer sentiment measures suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy, indicating a potential recession.
U.S. business activity remains sluggish in September, with the services sector hovering at its slowest pace since February and new order activity hitting its lowest level of the year, according to a survey by S&P Global, which also indicated that job growth and consumer spending have held steady despite concerns over interest rate hikes and inflation.
The US economy grew at a 2.1% annual pace from April to June, remaining resilient despite higher interest rates, but consumer spending weakened while business investment and government outlays contributed to the expansion.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation decreased in August, indicating that efforts to combat inflation are progressing, although there are still price growth pressures that could lead to further interest rate hikes by the central bank.
The US trade deficit in goods decreased by 7.3% in August to $84.3 billion, mainly due to reduced consumer imports like the new iPhone, which could boost the gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter.
Consumer spending in the US increased by 0.4% in August, while core inflation fell below 4.0% for the first time in over two years, potentially reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Bill Ackman warns that the U.S. economy is slowing down due to aggressive rate hikes and high real interest rates, which could lead to a challenging period for investors in the commercial real estate market.
The US economy may be on the brink of a recession due to a combination of factors including the impact of Fed hikes, auto strikes, student loan repayments, higher oil prices, and a global economic slowdown.
The US jobs market showed slower growth than expected in September, potentially indicating a significant slowdown in the labor market.
The September jobs report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth in the US, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 170,000 and the unemployment rate dropping slightly to 3.7%.
The likelihood of the US avoiding a recession has decreased, as two factors, including a surge in interest rates and the potential for resurgent inflation, could push the economy into a downturn, says economist Mohamed El-Erian.
Economists are predicting that the U.S. economy is less likely to experience a recession in the next year, with the likelihood dropping below 50% for the first time since last year, thanks to factors such as falling inflation, the Federal Reserve halting interest rate hikes, and a strong labor market.
U.S. economic activity remained stable but with slightly weaker growth, as labor market conditions eased and prices increased at a modest pace, according to a Federal Reserve report.
