Ukraine War Slows European Growth, Fuels Inflation: Study

The war in Ukraine has reduced European economic growth and increased inflation.
Output would have been 0.1-0.7% higher and inflation 0.2-0.4% lower without the war.
Germany was the worst affected with 0.7% lower GDP growth and 0.4% higher inflation.
The study likely underestimates the impact, especially on food and gas prices.
The medium to long-term impacts are expected to be about twice as large.

reuters.com

Relevant topic timeline:

6/22/2023

This week’s covers

This article discusses two covers of The Economist magazine. One cover focuses on the dangers of persistent inflation and the dilemma facing central bankers, while the other cover discusses Ukraine's future as a prosperous and democratic country.

9/6/2023

Ukraine says its war-torn economy is beginning to recover

Ukraine's economy grew by 2.2% in the first seven months of 2023, recovering from the impact of the Russian invasion in 2022, with the number of registered entrepreneurs surpassing pre-war levels.

9/6/2023

Turmoil looms in the West as oil hits 2023 high

Rising energy prices, driven by factors such as extended production cuts and deteriorating ties between the US and Saudi Arabia, will have negative consequences for Europe, potentially impacting support for Ukraine and slowing down efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

9/13/2023

Russia Forecasts Higher Inflation, Weaker Rouble and Faster Growth Despite Sanctions

Russia has raised its inflation forecast for 2023 and 2024, expecting a weaker rouble as the costs of the war in Ukraine increase.

9/25/2023

Ukraine War Reshapes Global Trade as Countries Turn Inward

The Ukraine war has led to a decrease in global trade between geopolitical blocs, as sanctions and blockades hinder trade flows and countries seek to diversify their sourcing.

9/26/2023

Dimon: Geopolitics and Ukraine War Now Biggest Risk, Surpassing Inflation and Recession Fears

Geopolitics, specifically the war in Ukraine, is the biggest risk to the global economy, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon, outweighing concerns about high inflation or a U.S. recession. Dimon also emphasized the importance of the war in determining the future of the free democratic world and highlighted the strain it has caused in global relationships, particularly between the U.S. and China.

10/8/2023

Ukraine Aid Debate Should Focus on Costs and Benefits, Not Overall Deficits

The US has serious fiscal deficits and debt, but spending on Ukraine is not a significant factor contributing to these problems, and debates about Ukraine spending should focus on its impact on the national interest rather than fiscal concerns.

10/9/2023

Russia Diverts Funds from Social Services to War Effort, But Economy Proves Resilient Despite Inflation and Lower Living Standards

Russia's economy is being increasingly structured around war, with nearly one-third of the country's spending next year devoted to defense, redirecting funds from sectors like health care and education; however, the economic impacts of the war, including inflation and a weakened ruble, are causing concerns for citizens and the government alike.

Topics

Posted 9/22/2023, 2:35:00 PM

Ukraine War Slows European Growth, Fuels Inflation: Study

The war in Ukraine has reduced European economic growth and increased inflation.
Output would have been 0.1-0.7% higher and inflation 0.2-0.4% lower without the war.
Germany was the worst affected with 0.7% lower GDP growth and 0.4% higher inflation.
The study likely underestimates the impact, especially on food and gas prices.
The medium to long-term impacts are expected to be about twice as large.

reuters.com

Relevant topic timeline:

6/22/2023

This week’s covers

9/6/2023

Ukraine says its war-torn economy is beginning to recover

Ukraine's economy grew by 2.2% in the first seven months of 2023, recovering from the impact of the Russian invasion in 2022, with the number of registered entrepreneurs surpassing pre-war levels.

9/6/2023

Turmoil looms in the West as oil hits 2023 high

9/13/2023

Russia Forecasts Higher Inflation, Weaker Rouble and Faster Growth Despite Sanctions

Russia has raised its inflation forecast for 2023 and 2024, expecting a weaker rouble as the costs of the war in Ukraine increase.

9/25/2023

Ukraine War Reshapes Global Trade as Countries Turn Inward

The Ukraine war has led to a decrease in global trade between geopolitical blocs, as sanctions and blockades hinder trade flows and countries seek to diversify their sourcing.

9/26/2023

Dimon: Geopolitics and Ukraine War Now Biggest Risk, Surpassing Inflation and Recession Fears

10/8/2023

Ukraine Aid Debate Should Focus on Costs and Benefits, Not Overall Deficits

10/9/2023

Russia Diverts Funds from Social Services to War Effort, But Economy Proves Resilient Despite Inflation and Lower Living Standards