Main Topic: Decline in builder sentiment in the homebuilding market due to rising mortgage rates and high construction costs.
Key Points:
1. Builder sentiment dropped 6 points to 50 in August, the first decline in seven months.
2. Rising mortgage rates and high construction costs are impacting builder sentiment.
3. Buyer traffic and sales expectations have also declined, leading to more builders using sales incentives.
New home sales in the US increased by 4.4% in July, outperforming expectations and highlighting the continued demand for new construction due to a shortage of existing affordable homes. Despite rising mortgage rates, buyers are turning to new homes, causing a decline in sales in the resale market. However, as mortgage rates continue to rise, builder sentiment may be negatively impacted and prices may need to be adjusted to attract buyers.
Homebuyers' purchasing power has been negatively impacted by rising mortgage rates, which averaged 7.2% in August, the highest level since 2001, resulting in a decline in existing home sales and a shift towards new-construction homes.
Mortgage rates have reached a 22-year high and are expected to continue rising, which will further challenge affordability and slow home sales. Additionally, the high rates are increasing the number of all-cash buyers in the housing market. On the other hand, rents have decreased for a third consecutive month, providing some relief for renters.
Home prices in the U.S. rose for the fifth consecutive month in June, despite high mortgage rates, with national prices increasing by 0.9% and only down 0.02% from their peak in June 2022, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. However, there were significant regional differences, with cities on the West Coast experiencing some of the biggest declines. The housing market continues to face challenges due to low inventory and slow new construction.
Mortgage payments in the US are at their highest since the mid-1980s, making housing deeply unaffordable, but surprisingly, rising mortgage rates have not led to a decline in house prices as supply of properties has fallen almost in lockstep with demand and locked-in homeowners have invested more in fixing up their current homes, leading to a robust housing market despite the economic challenges.
US housing inventory continues to be tight, with a 9.2% decrease in the number of homes for sale compared to last year, marking the fourth consecutive month of annual declines, although total inventory has shown monthly increases and is up 19% since January.
The number of homes for sale in the US continued to decline in August, down by 9.2% compared to the previous year and 45% below pre-pandemic levels, leading to higher home prices and affordability concerns.
The housing market is entering its slow season and home sales may be impacted by high mortgage rates, but home builder stocks could remain strong.
Average 30-year mortgage rates are still elevated at 6.94% in August, but they are expected to come down by the end of the year; however, a significant drop that will boost homebuying demand is not likely until 2024 or 2025, but there are advantages to buying a home even when rates are high, such as less competition.
Homebuilders are thriving due to a chronic shortage of existing housing inventory, leading to increased home prices and strong sales, according to KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger. The lack of inventory is also reflected in the significant drop in active home listings, with only Austin returning to pre-pandemic levels, while other markets have experienced substantial declines. Despite rising mortgage rates, the scarcity of existing inventory has prevented a steep national home price decline.
Demand for mortgages in the US has hit a 28-year low, with purchase applications falling to the lowest level since December 1996, despite a decrease in mortgage rates.
The gauge of US mortgage applications for home purchases fell to a 28-year low last week due to high mortgage rates, making homeownership less affordable and driving housing affordability to its worst point in decades.
US mortgage rates have decreased slightly for the second consecutive week, but they remain above 7%, causing home affordability to reach its lowest level in nearly four decades.
Home builder confidence dropped in September as mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed-rate loan remained above 7%, resulting in a decline in buyer purchasing power, according to the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.
US home building declined in August, with housing starts dropping to the lowest level since June 2020 due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory, despite an increase in building permits.
The U.S. housing market is facing a shortage of homes, which is driving up prices and making it difficult for buyers to find affordable options, and the problem may get worse as builders become less confident and hesitant to construct new homes due to high mortgage rates and construction costs.
New home construction in the U.S. has plummeted to a three-year low due to high mortgage rates, increased labor costs, and the rising price of building homes, leading to a significant decline in both single-family and multifamily starts.
The pace of new construction in the housing market slowed in August due to high mortgage rates and weakening demand, with housing starts falling to the lowest level since 2020, although building permits increased month over month.
US housing starts fell to their lowest level in three years, indicating a slowdown in homebuilding activity due to mortgage rates lingering above 7%.
Home prices continued to rise in August due to low inventory and high mortgage rates, causing a drop in home sales, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.
Sales of previously owned homes in the US fell for the third consecutive month in August, as higher mortgage rates, rising prices, and a lack of available properties have limited homebuyers' options.
Mortgage rates have reached a 23-year high, causing a decline in homebuying demand and leading to a potential slowdown in the housing market.
As the US housing market starts to cool down, homebuyers are being presented with a good opportunity as more homes see price reductions, according to Zillow, with 9.2% of listings having a price cut in the week ending September 16, a higher rate than in 2019.
Rising mortgage rates are impacting home affordability, which has been declining since early 2021, causing some sellers to reduce their asking prices, but the lack of available properties remains a challenge for most buyers.
Higher mortgage rates are adding strain to prospective homebuyers as elevated home prices and a lack of inventory make it difficult to find affordable housing, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at its highest level since December 2000.
Confidence among builders in the U.S. housing market has fallen for the third consecutive month due to higher mortgage rates, leading to decreased demand for new homes. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped to 40, the lowest reading since January 2023, reflecting concerns about buyer traffic and housing affordability.
Homebuilder confidence in the US dropped to its lowest level in 10 months due to high mortgage rates, which have led to lower buyer traffic and decreased housing affordability.
New U.S. home construction rebounds in September, despite high mortgage rates, with housing starts rising 7%, but applications to build and building permits show a decline compared to last year.
US single-family homebuilding rebounded in September due to high demand and an acute housing shortage, but the surge in mortgage rates may slow momentum and delay the overall housing market recovery, as loan applications to purchase homes plummeted to levels last seen in 1995.
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