Labour plans to accelerate infrastructure projects in the UK by overhauling planning rules to expedite green energy and 5G initiatives, with the aim of attracting £50 billion annually in investment and benefiting working people; the party also proposed hiring 300 new planners, rewriting planning guidance, and offering community perks near large projects. Additionally, Labour intends to recoup funds lost to fraud and waste during the pandemic by establishing an anti-corruption commissioner with the power to take cases to court and recover taxpayer money.
The South African rand weakened due to violence in the Middle East and anticipation of the release of national census data, which will provide insights into the country's economy and high unemployment levels.
The global economy is facing potential risks due to the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East, particularly regarding oil prices and inflation, with the possibility of further escalation and involvement of other countries such as Iran.
Investors are advised to consider making staggered investments in long-term government securities-focused gilt funds over the next six months, as fund managers believe it presents an opportunity for fixed-income investors to earn higher returns above inflation. Despite caution about near-term volatility, experts suggest that yields are entering an attractive territory and recommend increasing allocation to fixed income at the longer end of the curve. G-sec funds are preferred over corporate bond funds due to the narrow spread between AAA-rated bonds and G-secs.
The Conservative government's opposition to net zero and environmental policies will hinder Labour's efforts to pursue green growth and repair the damage to the UK's economy and climate goals if they win the next election. The government's anti-green rhetoric and rollback of climate policies will make it harder for any new administration to make progress in areas such as housing, transportation, and water. The costs of repairing the damage caused by these policies could reach billions of pounds, and some damage may be irreversible. Additionally, the government's measures could restrict local authorities from pursuing green policies effectively. Critics argue that these actions prioritize volatile fossil fuels and exploit energy companies, while undermining the opportunity for green technology industries to thrive.
German industrial output contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August, falling by 0.2%, indicating ongoing pressure on the sector and raising concerns of a recession, as analysts predict further decline in the coming months due to high interest rates and falling demand.
Claudia Goldin has won the Nobel prize in economics for her pioneering work on women's participation in the labor market and her research on the underlying factors that contribute to the gender pay gap.
German industrial output contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August, raising fears of a recession in the sector, as falling demand and high interest rates continue to put pressure on the economy.
Canary Wharf's office buildings are experiencing high vacancy rates as the district struggles to recover from the impact of the pandemic and the rise of remote working, with iconic buildings like One Canada Square currently 36% vacant compared to 4% before the pandemic. The increasing vacancy rates in Canary Wharf are attributed to a combination of factors, including the shift to flexible working, the preference for office buildings with better environmental credentials and amenities, and the demand for more flexible rental contracts. The area is also facing competition from other parts of London.
Gold prices may continue to increase due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, higher oil prices, and higher demand during the festive season, but the upside may be limited by the possibility of continued monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve.
Guernsey is on an "unsustainable" financial path with "insufficient revenues" and "declining government assets," according to an expert panel, who warn that the island needs to take action now to avoid more costly consequences in the future. The panel suggests increasing investment in public infrastructure and finding new ways to generate revenue through borrowing, migration, or new taxes. The report also highlights Guernsey's over-reliance on the finance sector and vulnerability to external economic shocks.
Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Hamas and Israel, is causing uncertainty in European markets, as investors consider the impact on already fragile markets dealing with inflation and rising interest rates. Oil prices have surged and U.S. stock futures are lower, adding geopolitical risk to the equation. European markets are expected to open mixed on Monday.
A new report warns that a recession may be imminent as employment, business optimism, and output continue to decline, with companies struggling to maintain staffing numbers and cope with higher borrowing costs and weaker customer demand.
Dozens of the world's poorest countries are facing budget cuts surpassing $220 billion over the next five years due to a debt crisis, pushing many to the brink of default, according to a report by Oxfam International, which urges the IMF and World Bank to create a fairer system instead of focusing on debt restructure and spending cuts.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office has revised Vietnam's 2023 growth forecast to 4.7%, but it falls below other organizations' projections.
The Chinese economy is predicted to grow about 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, surpassing the 5 percent annual growth target, driven by unleashed services consumption potential, accelerated infrastructure investment, and growth in high-tech and private manufacturing investment, according to the BOC Research Institute.
China's recent package of relief measures to boost the struggling property market has not yet had a significant impact on homebuyer confidence, leading experts to suggest that more stimulus policies may be needed to revive the market. Despite the government's efforts to lower mortgage rates and reduce down payments, weak sales data and further price declines are expected.
The Singapore dollar may face pressure as the country's economy weakens and investors seek the safety of the US dollar, according to analysts, potentially leading to a drop in the currency's rankings against its Asian counterparts.
Amidst economic uncertainty, experts predict a looming recession next year, with varying degrees of certainty, due to factors such as increased costs, global variables, and a potential decline in consumer spending.
India, along with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU, announced the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) as a strategic move to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative.
The suspension of visas for Canadian citizens by the Indian government may result in large-scale cancellations and a significant impact on the peak tourism season, leading to a projected 30-40% decrease in expected tourism in this financial year.
Laos is facing a severe economic crisis as a result of its heavy indebtedness to China, leading to a lack of job prospects, high inflation, and widespread disillusionment among young people, who are increasingly looking to leave the country.
Many migrant workers in China, who played a crucial role in the country's economic growth, are still facing uncertainty and financial struggles, with limited access to stable pensions and public services, highlighting the challenges in achieving social equality and "common prosperity" in the nation's economic transformation.
The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, specifically between Israel and Hamas, has the potential to create new inflationary trends and undermine economic confidence, impacting global markets and central banks' efforts to contain the price surge caused by the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Six Arab nations, including Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, have pledged to continue with "collective and individual voluntary adjustments" to oil production, expressing their commitment to supporting market stability.
China's youth unemployment rate of 21.3% poses a significant problem due to its potential impact on economies and geopolitical relations, with factors such as the Hukou system, overeducation, and emotional toll contributing to the issue. Addressing the problem requires aligning education with job market needs, reducing the urban/rural divide, providing mental health services, and implementing social security for gig workers, as well as international collaboration.
Prominent figures in the business community, including Bill Ackman and Elon Musk, shared their insights on the Israel attack, with Ackman criticizing US leadership and Musk highlighting the role of Iran. Oil traders are concerned about potential spikes in oil prices and the impact on inflation, while economists speculate on the possibility of a recession and higher interest rates. Geopolitical uncertainty adds another layer of complexity for business leaders.
Business activity in India gained momentum in the July-September quarter, with business confidence reaching a three-quarter high, as sales, new orders, and capacity utilization improved, indicating a positive outlook for the economy.
Facing deportation, Afghan nationals residing in Pakistan are being forced to sell their assets at significantly lower prices due to the looming threat of repatriation and the uncertain future they face.
Israel's declaration of war on Hamas could impact India's plans to build an India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor, as it may drive up insurance premiums and shipping costs and derail the entire project unless all countries in the region are on board. Israel is India's 11th largest trade partner, and any disruption in trade could hurt India economically.
Despite concerns about rising prices, recent food inflation figures show a reduction in costs for most food categories, signaling a positive trend and the lowest food inflation rate since February 2022 in Canada; however, there is still anxiety about food affordability and a perception that the worst is yet to come.
Australian company H2U is looking to scale up its green hydrogen infrastructure, but faces significant financial investment and long timelines before it can see success in the sector, which will likely require government support; while the global hydrogen sector has grown with government funding and optimism for its potential to help decarbonize the world and fill gaps in renewable energy, a new report by AFR Intelligence questions Australia's ability to compete in the global market and produce green hydrogen profitably and at scale.
The collapse of the Chungthang dam in Sikkim raises concerns about the safety of mega-dams in India, as many are susceptible to natural disasters and were built without considering the effects of climate change; however, India still plans to continue adding hydropower capacity with more caution.
The International Monetary Fund is closely monitoring the situation in Israel and Gaza, stating that it is still too early to determine the economic impact of the ongoing conflict.
The U.S. Treasury Department is urging the World Bank and other multilateral development banks to leverage shareholder capital commitments to increase lending capacity for developing countries by April 2024 in order to address global challenges like climate change and poverty.
Private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and collateralized loan obligations (CLO) have experienced significant declines in issuance, raising concerns for the commercial real estate market as delinquencies begin to increase. On a positive note, office vacancy rates in New York City decreased, but leasing activity fell, while leasing activity in Washington D.C. decreased and government agencies dominated the market. Leasing activity in Orange County, California showed signs of improvement, but this was largely due to one notable lease. WeWork has decided to skip interest payments but maintains sufficient liquidity, and ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, signed major office leases in Los Angeles. In terms of deals, Regus renewed its lease in New York, while various sales and purchases took place in Florida. Lastly, New York City landlords received a two-year grace period to comply with carbon emissions standards, which has been met with mixed reactions.
Europe faces the risk of bailouts as governments grapple with the consequences of a decade of cheap money, with the International Monetary Fund warning that central banks in the bloc could incur significant losses and require recapitalization.
The UAE's first electric vehicle brand, Rabdan, is expected to boost the country's industrial sector, contribute to GDP, and support its net zero commitments, according to Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology. Dr Al Jaber visited NWTN, the electric car maker that produces Rabdan, and emphasized its role in achieving climate neutrality goals and sustainable development. He also inaugurated the new factory of Standard Carpets Industries at Dubai Industrial City.
"Paradise," a thriller by Sri Lankan filmmaker Prasanna Vithanage, follows an Indian couple on vacation in Sri Lanka during the country's economic crisis, and it explores the impact of the crisis on their lives and relationship. The film, which was a stimulus for the struggling Sri Lankan film industry, has garnered high-level support and is set for a theatrical and streaming release, with plans for a 2025 Oscar campaign. Vithanage is also working on an adaptation of Dostoevsky's "The Gambler."
India's retail inflation is expected to drop below 6% in September due to cooling prices for essential commodities, although food inflation stood at around 10% in August.
Pakistan has committed to addressing the issue of illegal immigrants and enhancing border security to create a safe environment for foreign investment and economic growth, as well as to address security concerns raised by the presence of Afghans in the country.
Global financial markets are bracing for potential volatility and uncertainty following Hamas's surprise attack on Israel, with investors closely monitoring the reaction of oil prices and the potential for conflict to spread throughout the Middle East region.
Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary, believes that no existing currency can replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency, despite its recent decline, but warns that its share may continue to decrease as countries diversify; however, there are alternative investments like gold, fine art, and real estate that can help mitigate risks associated with the dollar's decline.
Rising interest rates are having a limited negative impact on businesses and consumers, as strong business and consumer finances help mitigate the effects of higher rates.
The federal industry minister, Francois-Philippe Champagne, has begun reaching out to foreign companies to promote investment in Canada in an effort to create more competition and lower prices, particularly in the grocery sector. This move comes in response to the need for increased competition in Canada's grocery industry and rising food prices impacting consumers.
The Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs and climate envoy emphasized the need for a practical and pragmatic approach to address climate change, acknowledging that each country must adopt a strategy suited to its unique circumstances, resources, and environment, during a panel discussion on the first day of MENA Climate Week in Riyadh. The panelists emphasized the urgency of adaptation, collaboration, and international support in confronting climate change challenges in the Middle East and North Africa region. Additionally, they highlighted the importance of comprehensive data, research, and financing for effective adaptation strategies.
Amid concerns about high oil prices, sticky inflation, and rising wages, investors may be poised to panic, but a closer look reveals a more positive long-term outlook with solid job market, moderating inflation, and decent growth.
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has announced plans for a conservation area spanning over 30,000 square kilometers in the Makkah, Asir, and Jazan regions, as part of their Green Initiative to protect natural resources and improve the quality of life in the kingdom.
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is aiming to challenge the global reserve status of the US dollar by exerting control over a significant portion of the oil sector, starting with Russia's Gazprom Neft announcing that it will no longer rely on the US dollar for trade and is open to accepting local currencies.
The US has serious fiscal deficits and debt, but spending on Ukraine is not a significant factor contributing to these problems, and debates about Ukraine spending should focus on its impact on the national interest rather than fiscal concerns.