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Stocks Stall, Bonds Drop, and Crypto Slumps in Tumultuous Third Quarter

  • After a strong first half, the stock market stalled in Q3 as the Fed signaled higher rates for longer. Energy stocks rallied but big tech names fell.

  • Long-term Treasury bonds posted double-digit losses in Q3 as yields rose to their highest since 2007.

  • Dividend stocks held up better than the overall market. The Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index ended flat while the market fell 3%.

  • Oil prices topped $90/barrel for the first time since November as supply cuts continued. The inverted yield curve persisted but narrowed.

  • Major cryptocurrencies lost ground in Q3 after substantial gains in the first half of 2023. Bitcoin and Ethereum each fell around 12%.

morningstar.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Stocks finished lower for a third day due to higher yields, with all three major U.S. indexes ending in the red.
The Dow and S&P 500 ended slightly lower due to concerns about the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer, while the Nasdaq finished barely in the green; the financial sector fell 0.9%, dragged down by an S&P downgrade of credit ratings of regional U.S. lenders, and investors are awaiting clarity on the rate outlook from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The cryptocurrency market has experienced a notable downturn, with the total market capitalization falling by 10% and triggering significant liquidations on futures contracts, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, inflation, delays in approving a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), financial difficulties within the Digital Currency Group (DCG), regulatory tightening, and a strengthening US dollar.
Bitcoin and Ether both rose over 3% as the crypto market recovered from its losses last week, while alternative cryptocurrencies also saw gains; however, experts remain divided on the future of prices, with some predicting continued downtrend and others expecting a rebound.
The stock market experienced a sharp decline as early gains turned into a selloff, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all falling; concerns over rising bond yields and inflation contributed to the sell-off.
The three major U.S. stock indexes ended down over 1% each, with the Nasdaq leading the decline, as investors were cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech and despite Nvidia's strong forecast and stock buyback announcement.
Wall Street ended a challenging August on a mixed note, with the Dow Jones down 0.5%, the S&P 500 losing 0.16%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.11%, resulting in the worst monthly performance since earlier this year; however, signs of a soft landing for the US economy and lower jobless claims have sparked hopes that the Fed may ease off on interest rate hikes at its upcoming meeting.
U.S. stocks slipped as worrying data out of China and a spike in oil prices following the extension of Saudi Arabian production cuts weighed on the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.4% and the Nasdaq dipped 0.1%.
Stock indices finished today’s trading session in the red, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all falling. The technology sector was the session's laggard, while the utilities sector was the leader. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield increased, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve's latest GDPNow reading estimates that the economy will expand by about 5.6% in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report, noting a tourism boom but slower spending in other areas. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index came in higher than expected, and mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since 1996. The U.S. trade deficit widened less than expected in July. U.S. stock futures inched lower, and European indices trended lower. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed.
Bank of America's stock fell 0.31% as the overall stock market had a mixed trading session, with the S&P 500 rising and the Dow Jones falling, ending a three-day winning streak.
Cryptocurrency prices remained stable as inflation in the U.S. surpassed economists' expectations, with Bitcoin trading at around $26,100 and Ethereum experiencing a slight dip of 0.5%. The Federal Reserve will consider this report, among other factors, for its upcoming interest rate announcement on September 20. While inflation has decreased since June, it still exceeds the Fed's target of 2% annually. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, decreased to 4.3% in August compared to July's 4.7%.
August saw the crypto markets experience a downturn, with Bitcoin and Ether losing significant value due to liquidations on the derivatives market, while venture capital investment in the blockchain industry hit a new low and derivatives drove negative sentiment for Bitcoin.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has revealed accumulated losses of $100 billion in 2023, a situation that is expected to worsen for the Fed, but it may be a blessing in disguise for risk assets like Bitcoin. The losses are a result of interest payments on the Fed's debt surpassing its earnings, leading to concerns about the impact on interest rates and the demand for scarce assets like BTC.
U.S. stocks fell and Treasury yields surged ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, while Instacart shares surged 12% on their first day of trading on the Nasdaq.
U.S. stocks slumped after the Federal Reserve indicated that it may not cut interest rates next year as much as initially expected, causing concerns among investors on Wall Street.
Stocks fell for a third consecutive day as Treasury yields continued to rise, causing pessimism in the market and leading to declines in major indexes.
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are likely to end the third quarter lower due to the strong case for owning bonds over stocks, with government bonds offering a higher return, making them more attractive than risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
The US stock markets broke a four-day losing streak with gains in energy and materials sectors, while the Asian markets saw losses with technology stocks declining and concerns about China's property market stability. European markets opened in the red, awaiting economic data and earnings reports. Crude oil and natural gas prices decreased, while gold, silver, and copper prices fell. US futures and the US dollar index were down.
The U.S. stock market has experienced a decline due to conflicting economic news and a surge in bond yields, which may be driven by factors other than data, such as fiscal deficits and central bank policies.
World markets ended a difficult third quarter on a slightly positive note, with the worst of the selling in bonds and stocks easing and U.S. crude oil prices falling from their yearly highs, while hopes for a possible year-end summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden also boosted sentiment.
Stocks ended the day higher as the surge in oil, the dollar, and Treasury yields slowed down, with the Nasdaq rising 0.8%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.4%.
Stocks retreated in September as Wall Street reacted to new data on inflation and fears of higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, with major indexes seeing drops of 3-5% for the month and quarter; meanwhile, bonds saw some relief from rate jitters and the looming US government shutdown added further uncertainty to the market.
U.S. stocks mostly fell as investors considered the latest inflation data from the Federal Reserve, marking the end of a turbulent month for the market.
Bitcoin is set to end the quarter with its first decline this year, down 11% since June, as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and withdrawals of nearly $500 million from cryptocurrency products contribute to investor apprehension.
Wall Street closed lower for the third quarter, breaking three straight quarters of gains, as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all fell sharply.
Summary: The U.S. stock market had a bad quarter, with all indexes falling, while the World Bank lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific, and China's demand for commodities continues to grow despite the downgrade. Additionally, a last-minute spending bill was passed to avoid a government shutdown, and this week's focus will be on the labor market.
U.S. stocks showed mixed performance as Treasury yields rose and a government shutdown was averted, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.6%, the S&P 500 down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.4%.
The S&P 500 closed out the quarter with a 3.6% loss, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, a slowing housing market, and businesses preparing for tough times, resulting in a slow decline in stocks. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments and expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are expected to impact consumer spending power and business cutbacks. However, as the year comes to an end, traders and investors may look forward to 2024 for possible rate cuts and a return of strength in the market.
Bitcoin ended the day slightly higher but saw a dip as the US 10-year yield surged, while the launch of ether futures ETFs did not generate much investor interest; however, the overall crypto market has been experiencing a rally influenced by factors like SEC approvals and government decisions, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this rally.
Stocks started the new month and quarter quietly despite the passing of a spending measure to fund the government through mid-November, with rising Treasury yields and hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve pulling the benchmarks off their highs.
Stocks slumped as the bond rout continues and one Fed policymaker predicted another interest rate hike this year, with the Nasdaq falling 0.5% and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other indexes took a major hit in the stock market, with the Dow falling more than 500 points and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also experiencing significant losses, as the cost of borrowing money increased and the yield on the Treasury 10-year bond reached a 16-year high.
Stocks on Wall Street opened lower after the US jobs report exceeded expectations, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates; the Dow Jones was down 0.3%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5%.
Summary: US stock indexes closed lower as investors awaited monthly employment data and looked for insights into future interest rate directions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.03%, the S&P 500 down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.12%; in Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 declined 0.28%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.41%, China's markets were closed for a holiday, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 1.40%; European markets, including the STOXX 600, Germany's DAX, France's CAC, and the UK's FTSE 100, all saw gains; and in commodities, Crude Oil WTI and Brent were down, Natural Gas was up, and Gold, Silver, and Copper all saw increases.
The US stock market experienced losses in the third quarter, driven by rising US Treasury yields, leading to a surge in the US dollar and a hostile environment for gold and silver; the fourth quarter may see a continuation of this trend if US yields continue to rise.
Bitcoin registered a loss of 11.1% in the third quarter of the year, defying recent positive developments in the crypto space, but there is hope for a recovery in the historically strong fourth quarter.
The U.S. stock market is currently trading at a discount to fair value, and Morningstar expects rates to come down faster due to optimism on inflation; strong growth is projected in Q3, but the economy may slow down in Q4, and inflation is expected to fall in 2023 and reach the Fed's 2% target in 2024. The report also provides outlooks for various sectors, including technology, energy, and utilities, and highlights some top stock picks. The fixed-income outlook suggests that while interest rates may rise in the short term, rates are expected to come down over time, making it a good time for longer-term fixed-income investments. The corporate bond market has outperformed this year, and although bankruptcies and downgrades may increase, investors are still being adequately compensated for the risks.
Bitcoin slipped just under 1% in the past 24 hours as bearish calls among analysts, including Jim Cramer, grew, while overall market capitalization lost 0.3%.
The crypto market experienced a significant downturn this week, with Ethereum being hit particularly hard, trading at its lowest point since March. Other major coins and tokens, including Toncoin, Solana, Ripple, Polygon, and Bitcoin Cash, also suffered losses. Only Bitcoin saw a relatively smaller decline.
U.S. stocks are set to end higher as investors shift their focus to the upcoming third quarter earnings season, while bond prices decline; cryptocurrencies gain attention with bitcoin rising, and major companies like Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, and Tesla prepare to release their quarterly results.
US stocks finished the day relatively unchanged as Treasury yields rose on better-than-expected retail sales data, increasing concerns about higher interest rates; the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed less than 0.1% away from yesterday's close, while the Nasdaq closed around 0.3% lower.
Stocks fell as Treasury yields rose and investors reacted to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.75%, the S&P 500 falling 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite leading the losses with a nearly 1% drop; in other news, Netflix shares surged more than 16% after the company reported a surge in subscriber numbers and announced plans to raise prices in the US, while Tesla shares fell almost 10% after the company's earnings missed estimates.
U.S. stock markets ended lower as treasury yields continued to climb, with the 10-year note reaching its highest level in 16 years, while Asian markets also saw declines.
The Nasdaq Composite gained over 30 points, while the Dow dipped by 0.58%, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.17% as U.S. stocks showed mixed performance. Retail traders and investors focused on stocks such as Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain, MicroStrategy Incorporated, Coinbase Global, and Tesla, with their performance influenced by the positive momentum in Bitcoin.
Stocks opened lower as investors digest disappointing Big Tech earnings and rising bond yields, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropping about 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat. The US economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years, with a 4.9% increase in GDP, driven by strong consumer spending. Stock futures point to a continuation of the sell-off as investors anticipate more earnings releases.
The cryptocurrency market remained flat as Bitcoin reached its highest price since May 2022, while stocks traded with a downward trend due to rising inflation, prompting speculation that the Fed may need to raise interest rates further; altcoins ended the week mixed.