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Bitcoin Halvings and Price: Examining the Nuances of Causation and Correlation

  • Bitcoin halvings have coincided with relative lows in 10-year Treasury yields, but causation is unclear.

  • Over 92% of Bitcoin's supply has already been issued, so daily issuance may not impact price.

  • Bitcoin's 2012 halving coincided with rising yields, challenging the notion of a pivotal moment.

  • Bitcoin rallied 247% in late 2020, 5 months after the halving when small caps outperformed.

  • Linking Bitcoin rallies to single events lacks statistical rigor; price driven by multifaceted factors.

cointelegraph.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields reach a 10-month high as Wall Street experiences losses and investors grapple with the potential for longer-lasting high interest rates and a struggling Chinese economy.
Surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing concern among investors as they wonder how much it will impact the rally in stocks and speculative assets, with the S&P 500, technology sector, bitcoin, and high-growth names all experiencing losses; rising rates are making it more difficult for borrowers and increasing the appeal of risk-free Treasury yields.
Bitcoin's correlations with various assets can provide insight into its price movements, with crypto-specific stocks like MSTR, COIN, and RIOT showing strong correlation due to their Bitcoin holdings, and silver demonstrating a higher correlation than gold as a commodity mirroring Bitcoin's price moves. However, correlations are not set in stone and can change rapidly, so these relationships may not always predict future price moves accurately.
Gold and silver prices rise as the weaker U.S. dollar index and dip in U.S. Treasury yields attract futures traders and bargain hunters, while anxieties build over upcoming speeches from the Fed and ECB on future monetary policy direction and the potential shift in the Fed's inflation goal.
U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors assessed the impact of recent economic data and speculated on the future of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
U.S. Treasury yields dropped as concerns over potential interest rate hikes grew due to recent economic data, including lower jobless claims and sustained inflationary pressures.
Popular analyst Arthur Hayes argues that traditional economic theories about Bitcoin's relationship with interest rates will fail due to the US government's substantial debt, as inflation may become "sticky" and bond yields may not keep up with GDP growth, leading bondholders to seek higher yielding "risk assets" like Bitcoin.
The recent increase in interest rates has impacted the price of bitcoin, with factors like opportunity cost, risk sentiment, and inflation expectations playing a role.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced fluctuations following the release of U.S. inflation data, signaling a potential impact of higher interest rates on digital currencies.
Bitcoin's pre- and post-halving price action could differ from previous cycles due to a change in global monetary policy and tightening liquidity, potentially causing more pain for risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, according to crypto market analyst Jamie Coutts.
The positive momentum surrounding Bitcoin's price is fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates again this year, while market participants remain optimistic despite the strength of the United States Dollar Index.
The Federal Reserve's continued message of higher interest rates is expected to impact Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, with the 10-year Treasury yield predicted to experience a slight increase and the U.S. dollar expected to edge higher.
Treasury yields rise and stocks fall as traders anticipate longer-lasting higher rates to prevent inflation, while Brent oil briefly surpasses $95 a barrel; the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates is eagerly awaited by investors.
The reduced volatility in the US Treasury market has supported risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks, with the MOVE index falling to its lowest level since the Fed began raising rates, providing a positive outcome for assets such as bitcoin.
Treasury yields are expected to rise in the future, which could have a negative impact on the stock market.
Summary: The US Dollar had mixed performance against major currencies, with the British Pound weakening and the New Zealand Dollar rallying; Wall Street took a hit after the Federal Reserve announcement, and the 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since late 2007.
U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors considered future interest rates and awaited economic data, with expectations that rates will remain higher and uncertainties surrounding a potential government shutdown and the upcoming Fed meetings.
Mounting fears of rates staying elevated for longer sent jitters through global risk assets, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to a peak not seen since the early stages of the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the dollar to a 10-month high.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are seeing a slight increase, but they are still facing pressure due to rising bond yields and uncertainty over interest rates and Federal Reserve policy.
Wall Street's decline due to high U.S. bond yields is expected to impact Asian markets, which will be further influenced by the Bank of Thailand interest rate decision, Australian consumer price inflation, and Chinese industrial profits.
Gold and silver prices are significantly lower due to a strong U.S. dollar index and a high U.S. Treasury note yield, with the metals market remaining bearish amid concerns of potential stagflation and higher interest rates.
The U.S. economy is experiencing turbulence, as inflation rates rise and U.S. Treasuries lose value, leading to concerns about whether Bitcoin and risk-on assets will be negatively impacted by higher interest rates and a cooling monetary policy.
Former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, predicts that the United States government's ballooning treasury yields could lead to a new bull market for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, as rising interest rates may force the government to resort to mass liquidity injections.
Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are rising uncontrollably, causing ripple effects in financial markets, as the 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since August 2007, resulting in plummeting bond prices and impacting various assets such as stocks and gold. The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to factors such as the U.S. government's expanding budget deficit, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program, and its restrictive stance on interest rates.
Bitcoin's price is increasing despite a mixed market for cryptocurrencies and spiking bond yields.
Treasury yields were mixed to slightly lower as the 10-year rate slipped from its 16-year high after U.S. jobless claims inched up, while the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for September is expected to determine the next major move in bonds.
Federal Reserve officials are not concerned about the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields and believe it could actually be beneficial in combating inflation. They also stated that if the labor market cools and inflation returns to the desired target, interest rates can remain steady. Higher long-term borrowing costs can slow the economy and ease inflation pressures. However, if the rise in yields leads to a sharp economic slowdown or unemployment surge, the Fed will react accordingly.
A spike in interest rates has negatively impacted stocks and bonds, but Bitcoin may continue to rise regardless of the rate changes.
Goldman Sachs economists warn that the recent surge in US Treasury yields will hamper economic growth and pose financial risks, though the bank does not predict a recession; they estimate a 0.5 percentage-point blow to US GDP over the next year.
Treasury yields dropped sharply as traders priced in a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, with the 2-year rate ending at its lowest level in over a month and the 10-year and 30-year rates also hitting lows.
Treasury yields have fallen from their recent highs, but the market's "pain trade" may not be over yet, as weak economic data and the upcoming inflation report could keep yields from coming down and staying down.
Bond market strategists are maintaining their predictions that U.S. Treasury yields will decrease by the end of the year and that 10-year yields have reached their peak, despite recent sell-offs and a strong U.S. economy.
The recent surge in Treasury yields is effectively acting as a rate hike without the Federal Reserve actually raising rates, impacting households and businesses by increasing the cost of debt and slowing economic activity.
The surge in US treasury yields has caused concern among investors due to the lack of an easy explanation, with expectations of hawkish monetary policy, increased bond issuance, and declining demand being potential factors contributing to the rise.
Bitcoin, along with other major cryptocurrencies, has been impacted by the unstable U.S. fiscal situation and the potential collapse of the U.S. dollar, while Wall Street giants like BlackRock are poised to embrace bitcoin and revolutionize finance.
According to Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian, the impact of higher Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve means freezing the housing market, higher borrowing costs for households and businesses, and a lack of stability in the bond market, urging for greater vision from the Fed as the U.S. economy faces points of inflection.
The impact of the Bitcoin halving event on crypto prices is often overestimated, as the reduced supply of new Bitcoin must be accompanied by significant demand for prices to surge, and each halving's impact on supply decreases over time, with changes in demand becoming the dominant factor influencing Bitcoin's price.
The relentless selling of U.S. government bonds has caused Treasury yields to reach their highest level in over 15 years, impacting stocks, real estate, and the global financial system as a whole.
The surge in bond yields is causing losses for investment funds and banks, pushing up borrowing costs globally and impacting stock markets, while the dollar remains stagnant and currency traders predict a recession on the horizon.
The relentless selling of U.S. government bonds has driven Treasury yields to their highest level in over a decade, impacting stocks, real estate, and other markets.