### Summary
The Chinese economy has slipped into deflationary mode, with retail sales, industrial production, and exports all missing forecasts. Shrinking domestic demand and a debt-fueled housing crisis are the main causes behind this slowdown.
### Facts
- 📉 Retail sales in July grew by 2.5% year-on-year, compared to 3.1% in June.
- 🏭 Value-added industrial output expanded by 3.7% y-o-y, slowing from 4.4% growth in June.
- 📉 China's exports fell by 14.5% in July compared to the previous year, and imports dropped 12.4%.
- 💼 Overall unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in July, with youth unemployment at a record 21.3% in June.
- 📉 Consumer Price Index-based inflation dropped to (-)0.3%, indicating a deflationary situation.
- 🏢 China's debt is estimated at 282% of GDP, higher than that of the US.
### Causes of the slowdown
- The debt-fueled housing sector collapse, which contributes to 30% of China's GDP.
- Stringent zero-Covid strategy and lockdown measures that stifled the domestic economy and disrupted global supply chains.
- Geopolitical tensions and crackdowns on the tech sector, resulting in revenue losses and job cuts.
### Reaction of global markets
- The S&P 500 fell 1.2% following the grim Chinese data.
- US Treasury Secretary warns China's slowing economy is a risk factor for the US economy.
- Japanese stocks and the Indian Nifty were also impacted.
- China's central bank cut its benchmark lending rate, but investors were hoping for more significant stimulus measures.
### Global market concerns
- China's struggle to achieve the 5% growth target may impact global demand.
- China is the world's largest manufacturing economy and consumer of key commodities.
- A slowdown in China could affect global growth, with the IMF's forecast of 35% growth contribution by China seeming unlikely.
### Impact on India
- India's aim to compete with China in the global supply chain could benefit if Chinese exports decline.
- However, if China cuts back on commodity production due to slowing domestic demand, it may push commodity prices higher.
### Summary
China's fiscal revenue rose 11.5% in the first seven months of 2023, but at a slower pace than the previous six months, indicating a loss of economic momentum.
### Facts
- 💰 China's fiscal revenue increased by 11.5% in the first seven months of 2023.
- 💸 Fiscal expenditure grew by 3.3% to 15.2 trillion yuan ($2.10 trillion).
- 📉 In July, fiscal revenue only rose 1.9% year on year, slower than the previous month's increase.
- 📉 Fiscal expenditure fell 0.8% in July, narrowing the decline compared to the previous month.
- 🌍 China's economy grew at a sluggish pace in the second quarter due to weak demand domestically and internationally.
- 📉 The consumer sector in China experienced deflation in July, with analysts predicting persisting price stagnation for the next six to 12 months.
China's fiscal revenue increased by 11.5% in the first seven months of 2023, but the growth rate was slower than the previous six months, indicating a potential decline in the economy's momentum.
China's economy, which has been a model of growth for the past 40 years, is facing deep distress and its long era of rapid economic expansion may be coming to an end, marked by slow growth, unfavorable demographics, and a growing divide with the US and its allies, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The flash surveys from S&P Global show a slowdown in US manufacturing and services sectors, raising concerns about economic growth in the third quarter and indicating a possible contraction in September due to weak demand and rising input costs.
China's economic slump, including a real estate crisis and high youth unemployment, coupled with rising tensions with the West, could lead to deflation and sluggish growth that could spread to the rest of the world, impacting global GDP growth and potentially causing a new normal of slower economic growth.
China's commodities sector, including coal mining and metals production, is experiencing declining profits due to the worsening property crisis and economic slowdown, with steel producers being the hardest hit. However, there is potential for growth in metals firms linked to the energy transition, particularly in China's green copper consumption driven by electric vehicles and renewable power.
China's economy is struggling due to an imbalance between investments and consumption, resulting in increased debt and limited household spending, and without a shift towards consumption and increased policy measures, the economic slowdown may have profound consequences for China and the world.
Consumer spending in China rebounded in August, with all categories, including apparel, automotive, food, furniture, appliances, and luxury, experiencing increased sales compared to July, according to a survey by the China Beige Book. Retail sales in July rose by 2.5% year-on-year, raising concerns about China's economic growth, but the August survey showed a surge in spending, particularly in the services sector, which saw continued strength in travel and hospitality. Additionally, corporate borrowing increased as the cost of capital declined, indicating a boost in business activity. However, China's property sector continued to worsen, with house prices barely growing and home sales declining.
China's factory activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month in August, indicating that the slowdown in the country's economy has not yet reached its lowest point.
Chinese factory activity unexpectedly grew in August, fueled by improving local demand and an increase in new orders, although the Chinese economy still faces challenges due to weak external demand and a potential real estate crisis.
China's services activity expanded at its slowest pace in eight months in August, as weak demand and stimulus measures failed to revive consumption, according to a private-sector survey.
China's services sector experienced a slowdown in business activity, resulting in the lowest level in eight months, as weaker foreign demand and sluggish overseas orders impacted consumption, despite economic stimulus efforts.
China's economy is showing signs of slowing down, including a decrease in GDP growth rate, declining exports, deflationary consumer price index, high youth unemployment, a weakening yuan, and a decrease in new loans, which could have global implications.
India's services industry experienced a slight slowdown in August, but overall conditions remained strong with record-high exports, indicating that the country will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy.
China's economic growth has slowed but has not collapsed, and while there are concerns about financial risks and a potential property crisis, there are also bright spots such as the growth of the new energy and technology sectors that could boost the economy.
Policymakers expect slower growth in China, potentially below 4%, as the country transitions to a consumption-driven economy, which could have a negative impact on the global economy and alleviate inflationary pressures.
China's exports and imports continued to decline in August due to weak overseas demand and sluggish consumer spending, posing challenges to the country's economic growth targets.
China's passenger vehicle sales experienced growth in August, driven by discounts and tax breaks on environmentally friendly and electric cars, despite a weak economy, and Tesla's share of the Chinese electric vehicle market nearly doubled.
China's consumer prices rose slightly and the decline in factory-gate prices slowed in August, indicating easing deflation pressures and signs of stabilization in the economy, although more policy support is needed to boost consumer demand.
China's real estate and construction sectors are struggling, leading to fears of economic stagnation as consumer spending declines and other areas of the economy are not growing fast enough to make up the difference.
China's factory output and retail sales grew at a faster pace in August, but declining investment in the property sector poses a threat to the country's economic recovery.
Economic activity in China appears to improve in August as industrial production and retail sales show growth, however, the real estate sector continues to face challenges with property investment and sales declining, leading Moody's to downgrade its outlook for the sector.
China's economic data for August shows a mixed picture, with retail sales and production on the rise, property investment declining, and the urban jobless rate ticking downward, leading experts to believe that while there may be modest improvements in growth, a strong recovery is still unlikely.
U.S. business activity remains sluggish in September, with the services sector hovering at its slowest pace since February and new order activity hitting its lowest level of the year, according to a survey by S&P Global, which also indicated that job growth and consumer spending have held steady despite concerns over interest rate hikes and inflation.
China's urbanization drive is slowing down, which is expected to further impact the struggling property sector that has been plagued by debt problems and declining consumer confidence. Managing the excess housing supply and diversifying the economy away from reliance on the property sector are crucial for a healthier Chinese economy.
China's small economic rebound appears to have stalled in September, with weak retail sales, manufacturing production, and loan growth, raising concerns about anemic third-quarter growth and the country falling short of its growth target.
China's economic growth appears to be slowing down, with issues such as an aging population and a collapsing housing sector leading to speculation that the country's economic miracle may be coming to an end, while its diplomatic strategies have also caused strain on international relationships.
China's factory activity experienced its first expansion in six months in September, signaling a gradual improvement in the country's economy, although challenges remain such as the property crisis and uneven economic rebound.
Japan's service sector experienced the slowest expansion in September since the beginning of the year, as shown by a private survey, indicating potential challenges for the country's economic recovery heavily reliant on domestic demand.
The US jobs market showed slower growth than expected in September, potentially indicating a significant slowdown in the labor market.
The Chinese economy is predicted to grow about 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, surpassing the 5 percent annual growth target, driven by unleashed services consumption potential, accelerated infrastructure investment, and growth in high-tech and private manufacturing investment, according to the BOC Research Institute.
China's consumer prices remained unchanged in September, signaling persistent deflationary pressures in the economy, while factory-gate prices fell slightly faster than expected, highlighting ongoing challenges facing the world's second-largest economy.
China's exports decline improved modestly in September, with the pace slower than the previous month, while imports remained largely unchanged, and analysts anticipate more support will be needed as external demand is expected to stay weak.
China's exports and imports declined at a slower pace in September, indicating a gradual stabilization in the economy, although challenges remain in the face of deflationary pressure, a property crisis, global slowdown, and geopolitical tensions.
China's economy is expected to slow in the third quarter due to weakened demand, but increased government support may help Beijing achieve its full-year growth target.
China's economy is expected to have slowed in the third quarter due to weak demand, but increased stimulus measures could help the country reach its full-year growth target. GDP growth is predicted to be 4.4%, down from 6.3% in the previous quarter, and while recent data shows some stabilization, more measures may be needed to support economic activity.
China's economy experienced growth over the summer due to government investment in infrastructure and increased consumer spending, but the real estate market continued to weaken.
Chinese GDP growth beats forecasts at 4.9% in Q3, retail sales and industrial output for September also surpass expectations, but concerns over widening conflict in the Middle East and the Gaza hospital blast overshadow positive economic data.
China's economy grew at a slower rate in Q3 due to faltering global demand and a struggling property sector, causing markets in Europe and Asia to fall while oil prices rose.
Despite a prolonged decline in overseas orders, Taiwan's actual exports experienced growth in September due to increased demand for semiconductor chips related to AI, signaling a slow turnaround in the offshore markets for hi-tech hardware.
The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, driven by robust consumer spending and resilient labor market, despite warnings of a recession; however, growth may slow in the fourth quarter due to factors such as auto worker strikes and student loan repayments.
