Japan's Ministry of Finance plans to raise its assumed long-term interest rate to 1.5% for the fiscal year 2024/25, up from the current record-low of 1.1%, indicating a potential strain on the country's budget as it is set to exceed 114 trillion yen ($782.64 billion).
Consumer inflation in Tokyo grew at a slower pace than expected in August, but the core figure, which excludes fresh food and energy costs, remained at its highest level in over 40 years, indicating that inflationary conditions in Japan remain high and putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to eventually tighten policy.
Brazil's annual inflation accelerated more than expected in August, reaching 4.24%, as the central bank continues to cut interest rates in its efforts to boost the economy.
The spike in retail inflation has raised uncertainty for investors and savers, with expectations of interest rate cuts being pushed to the next fiscal year and the possibility of a rate hike. The Reserve Bank of India projects inflation to stay above 5% until the first quarter of 2024-25, and food price pressures are expected to persist. While inflation may impact stock market returns, gold and bank deposit rates are expected to remain steady.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that underlying inflation in Japan remains below the bank's 2% target, leading to the decision to maintain the current approach to monetary policy, despite core consumer inflation staying above the target for the 16th consecutive month.
Japan's inflation is "clearly in sight" of the central bank's target, according to board member Naoki Tamura, suggesting the possibility of ending negative interest rates early next year.
US inflation remains above 3% as the cost of goods and services rose by 0.2% in July, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve may freeze interest rates to manage inflation without causing a recession.
Former Bank of Japan board member Goushi Kataoka believes that the central bank can only shift away from its easy monetary policy once it has achieved its 2% inflation target sustainably, with wage negotiations in 2024 playing a key role in this process. Kataoka expects the Bank of Japan to gradually remove its yield curve control and negative interest rate policies before exiting its easy policy. He also emphasizes the importance of cooperation between the Japanese government and central bank in achieving the inflation target.
South Korea's annual consumer inflation accelerated to 3.4% in August, the fastest rate since early 2017, raising concerns for policymakers.
Philippine inflation unexpectedly quickened in August due to higher food and transport costs, putting pressure on the central bank to maintain its hawkish stance, and the government may consider reducing rice tariffs to help lower domestic costs.
The British public's long-term inflation expectations rose in August, posing a challenge for the Bank of England, which is expected to raise interest rates later this month.
The Wall Street Journal reports a notable shift in the stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates, with some officials now seeing risks as more balanced due to easing inflation and a less overheated labor market, which could impact the timing of future rate hikes. In other news, consumer credit growth slows in July, China and Japan reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to record lows, and Russia's annual inflation rate reached 5.2% in August 2023.
Japanese long-term interest rates and the yen rose after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of ending the bank's negative interest rate policy.
The Bank of Japan's potential shift away from negative interest rate policy has ignited the Japanese Government Bond and currency markets, with the yen seeing its biggest rise in two months and the 10-year JGB yield reaching its highest point in almost a decade.
The Consumer Price Index is expected to show an increase in inflation in August, with headline inflation rising to 3.6% and core inflation easing to 4.4%, but the market is accustomed to this trend and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its rates at the upcoming meeting.
Brazil's annual inflation in August was lower than expected, giving the central bank more leeway to extend interest rate cuts at their upcoming policy meeting.
Japan's annual wholesale inflation slowed for the eighth consecutive month in August, providing relief for households and retailers affected by previous increases in raw material imports.
Wholesale inflation in the US rose more than expected in August, with the producer price index increasing by 0.7%, the largest monthly gain since June 2022, counteracting recent data that suggested price increases had been slowing down.
Wholesale inflation in the US exceeded expectations in August, driven by higher gasoline prices, indicating that inflationary pressures are still present in the economy.
Consumers' inflation expectations have reached the lowest level since March 2021, with expectations of a 3.1% rise in prices over the next year, according to new data from the University of Michigan, signaling a positive sentiment for the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation.
Speculation is growing that the Bank of Japan may be moving away from ultra-loose policy and negative interest rates, with its policy meeting being the highlight of the week in Asian markets.
"Inflation expectations can influence actual inflation, as people's behavior and attitudes towards the economy play a role in price changes," according to Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers at the University of Michigan.
Inflation in Britain slowed for a third consecutive month in August, defying expectations of a rise due to higher fuel prices, with consumer prices rising 6.7 percent compared to the previous year, driven by slower increases in food prices and a decline in hotel room costs. Core inflation also fell more than anticipated, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures, though price growth remains uncomfortably high. The Bank of England is set to announce its decision on interest rates, with growing speculation that rates may be held steady due to signs of slowing inflation and a weak economy.
Asia-Pacific markets fell as the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged and noted a "moderate recovery" in the economy, while Japan's private sector activity expanded at its slowest pace since February and the country's August inflation rate remained above the BOJ's target for the 17th straight month.
Japan's core inflation remained steady in August, staying above the central bank's 2% target for the 17th consecutive month, signaling broadening price pressure and potentially increasing the case for an exit from ultra-easy monetary policy.
The Bank of Japan has decided to maintain ultra-low interest rates and continue supporting the economy until inflation reaches its target, indicating a slow withdrawal from its stimulus program and causing the yen to fall.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted uncertainty over companies raising prices and wages, emphasizing the bank's commitment to maintaining loose monetary policy, while also expressing caution about the global economic outlook due to aggressive US interest rate hikes and sluggish growth in China's economy; the key driver of inflation will be whether strong wage growth and consumption outweigh rising import costs, he said.
Singapore's consumer price index inflation eased slightly in August, largely due to softer services and food prices, although increased fuel prices continued to support inflation; however, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) expects core inflation to further moderate in the coming months.
Despite expectations of higher interest rates causing a spike in unemployment and a recession, the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have managed to slow inflation without dire consequences, thanks to factors such as replenished supplies, changes in the job market, and continued consumer and business spending.
Australia's inflation for August met expectations, with core inflation easing further, reducing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates next month.
The Bank of Japan policymakers are divided on how soon the central bank could end negative interest rates, with some members believing it may take a significant amount of time before revising the policy, while others believe the 2% inflation target has come within reach and could be assessed in early 2024. The central bank's commitment to ultra-loose monetary settings remains due to uncertainty regarding the achievement of its inflation target.
Japan's core inflation slowed for the third consecutive month in September, mainly due to falling fuel costs, providing some relief for the fragile economic recovery; however, factory output remained flat in August, indicating the negative impact of weak global demand and China's economy.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation decreased in August, indicating that efforts to combat inflation are progressing, although there are still price growth pressures that could lead to further interest rate hikes by the central bank.
Consumer spending in the US increased by 0.4% in August, while core inflation fell below 4.0% for the first time in over two years, potentially reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Consumers perceive inflation as much higher than official figures indicate at the moment, largely due to sharp increases in the price of things like restaurant dining, hotel accommodation, and gasoline.
Underlying US inflation is expected to rise, supporting the idea that interest rates will need to remain higher for a longer period of time, as indicated by central bankers.
Consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months and three years ahead increased slightly, while expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased slightly but expectations for nominal spending growth declined somewhat; expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became slightly more negative and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased marginally; expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months slightly increased, and expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead rose marginally.
The U.S. government's upcoming inflation report is expected to show a cooling off of inflation, with overall prices for consumers rising by 0.2% compared to August and 3.6% compared to a year ago, and core inflation expected to be up 4.1% from September last year, indicating slower price increases in September than in August.
The upcoming monthly inflation report is expected to show that inflation in the US is cooling off, with overall prices for consumers rising by 0.2% compared to August and 3.6% compared to a year ago, indicating slower price increases in September than in August. However, if the report reveals that inflation remained higher than expected, especially in core areas, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, further slowing the economy.
The U.S. inflation rate continues to exceed expectations, raising concerns among investors about the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle and the possibility of maintaining current interest rates in November.
Inflation is at 3.7% despite efforts to lower it to 2.0%, and retailers are using tricks like percentage discounts to hide the true value of discounts from consumers.
Persistently high inflation in the US has led to a 7% decrease in consumer sentiment in October, with concerns over inflation impacting personal finances and expectations for future inflation rising to 3.8%.
Japan's core inflation in September slowed below 3% for the first time in over a year but remained above the central bank target, maintaining expectations that policymakers will phase out ultra-easy monetary policy.
