Japan's Ministry of Finance plans to raise its assumed long-term interest rate to 1.5% for the fiscal year 2024/25, up from the current record-low of 1.1%, indicating a potential strain on the country's budget as it is set to exceed 114 trillion yen ($782.64 billion).
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that underlying inflation in Japan remains below the bank's 2% target, leading to the decision to maintain the current approach to monetary policy, despite core consumer inflation staying above the target for the 16th consecutive month.
Japan's inflation is "clearly in sight" of the central bank's target, according to board member Naoki Tamura, suggesting the possibility of ending negative interest rates early next year.
Former Bank of Japan board member Goushi Kataoka believes that the central bank can only shift away from its easy monetary policy once it has achieved its 2% inflation target sustainably, with wage negotiations in 2024 playing a key role in this process. Kataoka expects the Bank of Japan to gradually remove its yield curve control and negative interest rate policies before exiting its easy policy. He also emphasizes the importance of cooperation between the Japanese government and central bank in achieving the inflation target.
Investors are concerned about the possibility of intervention in Tokyo after the yen reached its weakest level against the dollar in 10 months, while Asian markets fell due to worries of another US Federal Reserve interest rate hike and a jump in oil prices.
Tokyo stocks rise as a cheaper yen supports the market, despite falls on Wall Street and concerns about another US Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
The yen strengthened and government bonds slumped as traders reacted to potentially hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on the negative interest rate policy, causing Japanese bank shares to jump and the benchmark bond yield to rise.
The Bank of Japan has signaled a possible early end to its easy money stance, with the central bank considering interest rate hikes and an early end to its bond-buying policy, which caught markets off guard and caused the yen to surge and Japanese government bond yields to reach a 9-year high.
The Japanese yen strengthens against the US dollar as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hints at a potential shift away from negative interest rates.
The Bank of Japan's potential shift away from negative interest rate policy has ignited the Japanese Government Bond and currency markets, with the yen seeing its biggest rise in two months and the 10-year JGB yield reaching its highest point in almost a decade.
Speculation is growing that the Bank of Japan may be moving away from ultra-loose policy and negative interest rates, with its policy meeting being the highlight of the week in Asian markets.
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain ultra-low interest rates and reassure markets that monetary stimulus will continue amidst China's economic struggles and the global impact of US interest rates.
The Japanese yen remains weak against the U.S. dollar due to high U.S. Treasury yields and anticipation of the Bank of Japan maintaining its current monetary policies, while the dollar is boosted by the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates.
Japanese consumer inflation grew above expectations in August, potentially signaling a move away from negative interest rates as the Bank of Japan meets to discuss its monetary policy.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted uncertainty over companies raising prices and wages, emphasizing the bank's commitment to maintaining loose monetary policy, while also expressing caution about the global economic outlook due to aggressive US interest rate hikes and sluggish growth in China's economy; the key driver of inflation will be whether strong wage growth and consumption outweigh rising import costs, he said.
The Bank of Japan policymakers are divided on how soon the central bank could end negative interest rates, with some members believing it may take a significant amount of time before revising the policy, while others believe the 2% inflation target has come within reach and could be assessed in early 2024. The central bank's commitment to ultra-loose monetary settings remains due to uncertainty regarding the achievement of its inflation target.
Investors are concerned about possible intervention as the yen approaches 150 per dollar, but the Bank of Japan may find it difficult to justify and achieve currency support due to the hesitation in exiting an ultra-easy monetary policy and the commitment to market-determined exchange rates.
Speculation that the Bank of Japan may abandon its negative rate policy raises concerns for Japanese homebuyers who rely on floating-interest mortgages.
The Bank of Japan is considering the eventual end of its ultra-loose monetary policy, with some policymakers discussing the conditions and timing of a future exit, according to a summary of opinions from their September meeting, leading to a rise in government bond yields.
The dollar rose due to expectations of higher U.S. interest rates, while the yen reached a one-year low, leading to concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities; the euro and pound also fell, while the U.S. Congress passed a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown.
