### Summary
Asian stocks were mixed as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's summer conference to determine if more interest rate hikes are necessary to deal with inflation.
### Facts
- 📉 Shanghai and Hong Kong stocks retreated, while Tokyo and Seoul stocks advanced.
- 📉 The Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 1.1%.
- 📈 The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo advanced 0.6%.
- 📈 The Kospi in Seoul gained 0.6%.
- 📊 The S&P 500 index ended the week lower by 0.1%.
- 💵 Some investors are shifting money to bonds as higher interest rates make their payout bigger and less risky.
- 💹 Tech and other high-growth stocks are some of the biggest losers due to higher rates.
- 📉 Ross Stores jumped 5% after reporting stronger-than-expected results, while Estee Lauder fell 3.3% despite reporting stronger profit and revenue than expected.
- ⛽ Benchmark U.S. crude gained 73 cents to $81.39 per barrel, while Brent crude reached $85.55 per barrel.
- 💲 The dollar slightly edged up to 145.35 yen, while the euro rose to $1.0882.
(Source: AP News)
Japan's Ministry of Finance plans to raise its assumed long-term interest rate to 1.5% for the fiscal year 2024/25, up from the current record-low of 1.1%, indicating a potential strain on the country's budget as it is set to exceed 114 trillion yen ($782.64 billion).
Japan will only intervene in the currency market if the yen drops below 150 to the dollar and becomes a major political issue for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, according to a former central bank official involved in Japan's past market interventions.
The US dollar remains strong against major peers and the yen, as Treasury yields rise amid expectations of high US interest rates for a longer period, while China's central bank sets a stronger-than-expected daily midpoint for the yuan to counter mounting pressure on the currency.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is rising to its highest level since 2007, and this is due in part to reduced demand from foreign countries, such as Japan and China, who are diversifying their investments away from U.S. Treasurys.
The recent spike in U.S. bond yields is not driven by inflation expectations but by economic resilience and high bond supply, according to bond fund managers, with factors such as the Bank of Japan allowing yields to rise and an increase in the supply of U.S. government bonds playing a larger role.
Japanese and Chinese central banks have significantly reduced their holdings of US Treasury bonds, making it less likely that their interventions in the foreign exchange market would disrupt global markets or strike fear into bond investors.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concern over China's weak economic activity, particularly in the property sector, which could impact Japan's economic outlook, while also highlighting the potential risks of geopolitical tensions and trade wars.
The Bank of Japan surprised financial markets by announcing "greater flexibility" in its monetary policy, specifically loosening its yield curve control, which has led to speculation about a potential tightening of monetary policy and the end of the policy measure.
The yen rebounded from a 10-month low against the dollar after Japan issued a strong warning about sharp currency moves, increasing the likelihood of government intervention if the slump continues.
Tokyo stocks rise as a cheaper yen supports the market, despite falls on Wall Street and concerns about another US Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
The dollar strengthens against the yen and keeps the euro and sterling near three-month lows as investors rely on the resilience of the U.S. economy, while China's onshore yuan hits a 16-year low due to a property slump and weak consumer spending.
Asian equities face a cautious start to trading while the yen strengthens following potentially hawkish remarks from the Bank of Japan governor, with futures for Australia slightly higher, US-listed Chinese stocks falling, and contracts for Japan showing a small gain.
The Bank of Japan has signaled a possible early end to its easy money stance, with the central bank considering interest rate hikes and an early end to its bond-buying policy, which caught markets off guard and caused the yen to surge and Japanese government bond yields to reach a 9-year high.
The Japanese yen strengthens against the US dollar as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hints at a potential shift away from negative interest rates.
Japanese long-term interest rates and the yen rose after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of ending the bank's negative interest rate policy.
The Bank of Japan's potential shift away from negative interest rate policy has ignited the Japanese Government Bond and currency markets, with the yen seeing its biggest rise in two months and the 10-year JGB yield reaching its highest point in almost a decade.
Chinese property stocks and Japanese government bonds set the tone for global markets as the Hang Seng property index dropped to a fresh September low before rebounding on news that Country Garden won creditor support to delay onshore bond payments, while the Bank of Japan's comments about potential stimulus exit in 2023 pushed the local bond market, and the week ahead is marked by important policy meetings by the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and the ECB.
Japan's ruling party lawmaker Hiroshige Seko supports maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, following comments by the Bank of Japan governor that caused the yen and bond yields to rise.
The US dollar remains stable in Asian trades as the yen and sterling experience slight fluctuations due to upcoming central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish pause, and the Bank of England's possible interest rate increase.
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain ultra-low interest rates and reassure markets that monetary stimulus will continue amidst China's economic struggles and the global impact of US interest rates.
The Japanese yen remains weak against the U.S. dollar due to high U.S. Treasury yields and anticipation of the Bank of Japan maintaining its current monetary policies, while the dollar is boosted by the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates.
Asia-Pacific markets fell as the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged and noted a "moderate recovery" in the economy, while Japan's private sector activity expanded at its slowest pace since February and the country's August inflation rate remained above the BOJ's target for the 17th straight month.
The Japanese yen weakened and stocks and bonds remained under pressure as investors prepared for U.S. interest rates to remain high, despite the Bank of Japan sticking to ultra-easy monetary policy and making no changes to its outlook.
The yen weakened against the dollar as the Bank of Japan announced it would maintain its accommodative monetary policy, with little indication of rolling it back.
The Japanese yen is approaching the key level of 150 per dollar, increasing the likelihood of forex intervention by Japanese authorities, while the US dollar continues its gains after the Federal Reserve signaled a longer period of higher interest rates.
Asian shares fall due to concerns over interest rates, inflation data, and China's economy, while bond investors face the impact of the US Federal Reserve's more hawkish rate projections.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted uncertainty over companies raising prices and wages, emphasizing the bank's commitment to maintaining loose monetary policy, while also expressing caution about the global economic outlook due to aggressive US interest rate hikes and sluggish growth in China's economy; the key driver of inflation will be whether strong wage growth and consumption outweigh rising import costs, he said.
Government bonds slumped and the dollar reached its highest level since March as traders speculated that central banks will maintain elevated interest rates to combat inflation.
Investors are concerned about possible intervention as the yen approaches 150 per dollar, but the Bank of Japan may find it difficult to justify and achieve currency support due to the hesitation in exiting an ultra-easy monetary policy and the commitment to market-determined exchange rates.
Japanese stocks soar as the yen reaches its lowest point in nearly a year and the US avoids a government shutdown, while other equity markets in the region remain mixed.
The Bank of Japan is considering the eventual end of its ultra-loose monetary policy, with some policymakers discussing the conditions and timing of a future exit, according to a summary of opinions from their September meeting, leading to a rise in government bond yields.
The dollar rose due to expectations of higher U.S. interest rates, while the yen reached a one-year low, leading to concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities; the euro and pound also fell, while the U.S. Congress passed a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown.
The Bank of Japan is increasing its bond purchases in an effort to defend its yield curve control policy as government bond yields rise.
The Bank of Japan defending its yield curve control is expected to be a catalyst to halt the recent selloff in Treasuries and stabilize global bond markets.
The yen briefly fell below 150 against the dollar despite efforts by the Japanese government to prevent the decline, as investors anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates.
The recent surge in global bond yields, driven by rising term premiums and expectations of higher interest rates, signals the potential end of the era of low interest rates and poses risks for heavily indebted countries like Italy, as well as Japan and other economies tied to rock-bottom interest rates.
The yen and euro received relief as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields stalled after U.S. private payrolls growth slowed, leading investors to reduce bets the Federal Reserve will hike rates again this year.
Concerns surround the upcoming release of U.S. payrolls data and how hawkish the Federal Reserve needs to be, as global markets experience a period of calm following a tumultuous week that saw Treasury yields rise to 16-year highs, crude oil prices drop, equities decline, and the yen strengthen. Japanese government bond yields are also causing concern, as investor sentiment towards the Bank of Japan's stimulus remains low.