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Yen Nears 150 Per Dollar, Raising Speculation of Intervention Despite Risks

  • The yen has weakened to near 150 per dollar, raising speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities. However, intervention could be hard to justify with BOJ policy still ultra-easy while other central banks hike rates.

  • 150 yen per dollar is seen as a "red line" for possible intervention. But Japanese authorities have stressed targeting volatility, not levels. Market volatility remains low currently.

  • Intervention would be risky, requiring huge amounts of dollar reserves to impact the large forex market. Tokyo could get resistance from U.S. and others committed to free exchange rates.

  • Public opinion in Japan is important with rising costs of living. But fundamentals argue for a weaker yen based on rate differentials and the BOJ's dovish stance.

  • Any intervention is a political decision. But economically, its impact may be limited given opposing stances by the BOJ and other major central banks.

reuters.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Japan's Ministry of Finance plans to raise its assumed long-term interest rate to 1.5% for the fiscal year 2024/25, up from the current record-low of 1.1%, indicating a potential strain on the country's budget as it is set to exceed 114 trillion yen ($782.64 billion).
Japan will only intervene in the currency market if the yen drops below 150 to the dollar and becomes a major political issue for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, according to a former central bank official involved in Japan's past market interventions.
The Bank of Japan will maintain its current monetary policy approach as underlying inflation remains below the 2% target, despite core consumer inflation staying above target for the 16th straight month in July, according to BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.
The US dollar was cautious as traders awaited economic data, while the yen struggled near intervention levels as the dollar remained strong.
The yen's weakness against major currencies is driving up import costs in Japan, leading to higher prices for necessities like energy and food.
The Bank of Japan surprised financial markets by announcing "greater flexibility" in its monetary policy, specifically loosening its yield curve control, which has led to speculation about a potential tightening of monetary policy and the end of the policy measure.
Japan's inflation is "clearly in sight" of the central bank's target, according to board member Naoki Tamura, suggesting the possibility of ending negative interest rates early next year.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki suggests that currencies should be determined by the market, with no indication of intervening to support the weakening yen, despite concerns over rising import costs.
Former Bank of Japan board member Goushi Kataoka believes that the central bank can only shift away from its easy monetary policy once it has achieved its 2% inflation target sustainably, with wage negotiations in 2024 playing a key role in this process. Kataoka expects the Bank of Japan to gradually remove its yield curve control and negative interest rate policies before exiting its easy policy. He also emphasizes the importance of cooperation between the Japanese government and central bank in achieving the inflation target.
Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron stated that currency intervention to support the weakening shekel will only be necessary in the case of market failures, emphasizing that market forces should dictate the exchange rate amid increased uncertainty in Israel.
The yen rebounded from a 10-month low against the dollar after Japan issued a strong warning about sharp currency moves, increasing the likelihood of government intervention if the slump continues.
Tokyo stocks rise as a cheaper yen supports the market, despite falls on Wall Street and concerns about another US Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
The dollar's strength is expected to be difficult to overcome for most major currencies by year-end, according to a Reuters poll of forex strategists, with risks to the greenback outlook skewed to the upside.
The Japanese yen has reached a 10-month low against the US dollar, while the euro and sterling remain near three-month lows, as investors show confidence in the US economy despite global growth concerns.
The yen strengthened and government bonds slumped as traders reacted to potentially hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on the negative interest rate policy, causing Japanese bank shares to jump and the benchmark bond yield to rise.
The Bank of Japan has signaled a possible early end to its easy money stance, with the central bank considering interest rate hikes and an early end to its bond-buying policy, which caught markets off guard and caused the yen to surge and Japanese government bond yields to reach a 9-year high.
The Japanese yen strengthens against the US dollar as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hints at a potential shift away from negative interest rates.
Japanese long-term interest rates and the yen rose after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of ending the bank's negative interest rate policy.
The Bank of Japan's potential shift away from negative interest rate policy has ignited the Japanese Government Bond and currency markets, with the yen seeing its biggest rise in two months and the 10-year JGB yield reaching its highest point in almost a decade.
Japan's ruling party lawmaker Hiroshige Seko supports maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, following comments by the Bank of Japan governor that caused the yen and bond yields to rise.
Speculation is growing that the Bank of Japan may be moving away from ultra-loose policy and negative interest rates, with its policy meeting being the highlight of the week in Asian markets.
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain ultra-low interest rates and reassure markets that monetary stimulus will continue amidst China's economic struggles and the global impact of US interest rates.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may become the most significant uncertainty factor in global markets as it potentially unwinds its negative interest rate policy and yield curve control, which could have knock-on effects on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The Japanese yen remains weak against the U.S. dollar due to high U.S. Treasury yields and anticipation of the Bank of Japan maintaining its current monetary policies, while the dollar is boosted by the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates.
The Japanese yen weakened and stocks and bonds remained under pressure as investors prepared for U.S. interest rates to remain high, despite the Bank of Japan sticking to ultra-easy monetary policy and making no changes to its outlook.
The yen weakened against the dollar as the Bank of Japan announced it would maintain its accommodative monetary policy, with little indication of rolling it back.
The Japanese yen is approaching the key level of 150 per dollar, increasing the likelihood of forex intervention by Japanese authorities, while the US dollar continues its gains after the Federal Reserve signaled a longer period of higher interest rates.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted uncertainty over companies raising prices and wages, emphasizing the bank's commitment to maintaining loose monetary policy, while also expressing caution about the global economic outlook due to aggressive US interest rate hikes and sluggish growth in China's economy; the key driver of inflation will be whether strong wage growth and consumption outweigh rising import costs, he said.
The Bank of Japan policymakers are divided on how soon the central bank could end negative interest rates, with some members believing it may take a significant amount of time before revising the policy, while others believe the 2% inflation target has come within reach and could be assessed in early 2024. The central bank's commitment to ultra-loose monetary settings remains due to uncertainty regarding the achievement of its inflation target.
The Bank of Japan is considering the eventual end of its ultra-loose monetary policy, with some policymakers discussing the conditions and timing of a future exit, according to a summary of opinions from their September meeting, leading to a rise in government bond yields.
Traders remain wary as the yen approaches 150 per dollar and the strong dollar dominates, leading to low risk appetite and a lower open in European markets.
The yen briefly fell below 150 against the dollar despite efforts by the Japanese government to prevent the decline, as investors anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates.
Japan's central bank is under pressure to reconsider its ultraloose monetary policy due to factors such as a weak yen, post-pandemic inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, stated that the country will take appropriate action in the forex market when necessary, while also noting that the yen is still considered a safe asset along with the Swiss Franc and US Dollar, and that the impact of the Middle East crisis on the Japanese economy cannot be foreseen.
The Japanese Yen is struggling against the US Dollar as the Bank of Japan considers changes to its yield curve control program, while Treasury yields remain strong and a clean break above 150 for USD/JPY could lead to volatility.
The exchange rate of USD/JPY reaching 150 could trigger action from the Ministry of Finance, potentially turning the market assumption into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Japanese policymakers maintain their warning against selling the yen as it weakens to a one-year low against the dollar, keeping pressure on the Bank of Japan to adjust its ultra-low rate policy.
The Japanese yen is retesting the psychological 150 mark against the US dollar, with the possibility of intervention by the Bank of Japan as it considers tweaking its yield curve control policy.
The USD/JPY is trading above the 150.00 level as markets challenge the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to intervene, while Tokyo CPI inflation beats expectations.
The USD/JPY exchange rate has crossed the 150 mark, leading economists to analyze the pair's outlook and consider the possibility of intervention or JPY depreciation, but the effectiveness of intervention in preventing depreciation in the long term is uncertain.