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JPMorgan doubles Turkish rate hike forecasts for coming months

  • JPMorgan doubled its Turkish rate-hike forecasts for the coming months, predicting hikes of 500bp in September and October due to fiscal spending and high inflation
  • The bank now expects rate hikes to be front-loaded compared to its previous 250bp forecast
  • JPMorgan cited expected fiscal loosening and upside inflation surprises as reasons for its updated forecasts
  • The bank sees upside risks to its year-end 2022 policy rate forecast of 35% and its 2024 year-end forecast of 45%
  • JPMorgan's forecasts come as Turkey grapples with high inflation and a weakening lira
reuters.com
Relevant topic timeline:
- The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to 5.25% despite a slowdown in consumer-price rises, leading to speculation about when the central bank will end its monetary tightening. - House prices in Britain fell by 3.8% in July compared to the same month last year, the sharpest decline since July 2009, but the average house price was still higher than earlier this year. - The Bank of Japan raised its cap on the yield of Japanese ten-year government bonds from 0.5% to 1%, causing the yield to soar to nine-year highs. - Turkey's annual inflation rate increased to 47.8% in July, the first rise since October, due in part to a new tax on fuel. - The euro area's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, with much of the growth attributed to changes in intellectual property shifting by multinationals based in Ireland for tax purposes. Germany's GDP growth rate was zero, and Italy's fell by 0.3%.
Turkey's central bank raises interest rates to 25% in an effort to combat inflation, surpassing economist expectations and leading to a rally of the Turkish lira.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years, but experts expect the market to react less dramatically than in the past.
Turkey's central bank surprises markets by raising interest rates more quickly than anticipated.
The Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates again in order to reduce inflation to its targeted levels, as indicated by Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman, who stated that additional rate increases will likely be needed; however, conflicting economic indicators, such as job growth and wage growth, may complicate the decision-making process.
JPMorgan revises its inflation forecast for Turkey to 65% from 62%, with expectations that the annual rate will peak at 73% in May 2024, due to higher-than-expected inflation data for August.
Wall Street banks are revising their outlooks for Turkish interest rates as inflation rises faster than expected, with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America suggesting that borrowing costs may need to rise higher or quicker in response to the surge in price growth.
The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates on September 14, although nearly half of economists anticipate one more increase this year in an effort to reduce inflation.
Pakistan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates to address inflation and bolster foreign exchange reserves, following a series of rate hikes earlier this year in response to economic and political crises.
J.P.Morgan Asset Management predicts that there will be no more interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve due to downward-trending inflation data.
The European Central Bank may raise interest rates for a 10th consecutive meeting on Thursday, but the decision is uncertain.
The European Central Bank has implemented its 10th consecutive interest rate increase in an attempt to combat high inflation, although there are concerns that higher borrowing costs could lead to a recession; however, the increase may have a negative impact on consumer and business spending, particularly in the real estate market.
The European Central Bank has raised key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to help bring down inflation, although the economy is expected to remain weak for a while before slowly recovering in the coming years.
The European Central Bank has raised its main interest rate for the 10th consecutive time to tackle inflation, but indicated that further hikes may be paused for now, causing the euro to fall and European stocks to rally.
The Russian central bank has raised its key interest rate to 13% in response to inflationary pressures and a weak rouble, and warns that rates will remain high for a considerable period of time, with further rate increases possible in the future.
Goldman Sachs strategists predict that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting, but expect the central bank to increase its economic growth projections and make slight adjustments to its interest rate projections.
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 5.5%, potentially marking the end of its tightening cycle, as concerns about a cooling economy grow among policymakers.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold off on raising interest rates, but consumers are still feeling the impact of previous hikes, with credit card rates topping 20%, mortgage rates above 7%, and auto loan rates exceeding 7%.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, but investors will be paying close attention to any indications of future rate increases as the central bank continues its fight against inflation.
Turkey's central bank raises interest rates to 30% as it seeks to combat high inflation and stabilize the weakening lira.
Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England, have pledged to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to combat inflation and achieve global economic stability, despite concerns about the strength of the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions.
At least one more interest-rate hike is possible, according to Federal Reserve officials, who suggest that borrowing costs may need to remain higher for longer in order to address inflation concerns and reach the central bank's 2% target.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman expects 30-year interest rates to increase further and sees inflation remaining high, while his hedge fund remains short on bonds.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns that interest rates could rise significantly from their current levels due to elevated inflation and slow growth, potentially reaching 7%, and urges businesses to prepare for this stress in the system.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari believes there is a 50% chance that interest rates will need to significantly increase in order to combat inflation, citing a strong case for the U.S. economy heading towards a "high-pressure equilibrium."
J.P. Morgan strategists predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates until the third quarter of next year due to a strong economy and continued inflation, with implications for inflation, earnings, and equity valuations as well as potential impact from a government shutdown.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates as the economy slows down, but warns of continuing spillover effects and expects bond yields to rise further.
Interest rates for certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts have increased significantly in recent years due to the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, but it is uncertain if rates will continue to rise or if they have reached their peak.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for mortgage rates, predicting that they will be higher than previously expected, with rates of 7.1% by the end of 2023 and 6.8% by the end of 2024, due to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain benchmark interest rates and concerns about inflation, leading to a decrease in mortgage applications and homebuyers being priced out of the market.
JPMorgan Asset Management CIO discusses market trends, Fed's inflation fight, and impact of interest rates on Treasury yields.