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Turkey’s Central Bank Raises Rates More Quickly Than Expected

Turkey's central bank surprises markets by raising interest rates more quickly than anticipated.

wsj.com
Relevant topic timeline:
- The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to 5.25% despite a slowdown in consumer-price rises, leading to speculation about when the central bank will end its monetary tightening. - House prices in Britain fell by 3.8% in July compared to the same month last year, the sharpest decline since July 2009, but the average house price was still higher than earlier this year. - The Bank of Japan raised its cap on the yield of Japanese ten-year government bonds from 0.5% to 1%, causing the yield to soar to nine-year highs. - Turkey's annual inflation rate increased to 47.8% in July, the first rise since October, due in part to a new tax on fuel. - The euro area's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, with much of the growth attributed to changes in intellectual property shifting by multinationals based in Ireland for tax purposes. Germany's GDP growth rate was zero, and Italy's fell by 0.3%.
The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
The Central Bank of Turkey is expected to continue its policy tightening, but doubts remain as to whether the pace of tightening will be sufficient, given the high inflation rate; meanwhile, the focus in the US is on the jobs market and the unemployment rate's impact on inflation, and pessimism reigns for the euro due to concerns about the ECB's ability to raise interest rates.
Turkey's central bank raises interest rates to 25% in an effort to combat inflation, surpassing economist expectations and leading to a rally of the Turkish lira.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years, but experts expect the market to react less dramatically than in the past.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia believes that the US central bank has already raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to pre-pandemic levels of around 2%.
Central bankers are uncertain if they have raised interest rates enough, prompting concerns about the effectiveness of their monetary policies.
Turkey's recent interest rate hike has caught the attention of foreign investors who may consider returning to Turkish assets if the country continues to demonstrate a commitment to orthodox monetary policy and economic stability.
The Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates again in order to reduce inflation to its targeted levels, as indicated by Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman, who stated that additional rate increases will likely be needed; however, conflicting economic indicators, such as job growth and wage growth, may complicate the decision-making process.
Emerging-market central banks are resisting expectations of interest rate cuts, which is lowering the outlook for developing-nation bonds, as central banks in Asia and Latin America turn hawkish in response to the "higher-for-longer" stance taken by the Federal Reserve, currency pressures, and the threat of inflation.
Central banks across major developed and emerging economies took a breather in August with lower interest rate hikes amid diverging growth outlooks and inflation risks, while some countries like Brazil and China cut rates, and others including Turkey and Russia raised rates to combat currency weakness and high inflation.
Wall Street banks are revising their outlooks for Turkish interest rates as inflation rises faster than expected, with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America suggesting that borrowing costs may need to rise higher or quicker in response to the surge in price growth.
JPMorgan predicts that Turkish interest rates will increase by 10 percentage points in the next two central bank meetings due to fiscal spending plans and higher inflation.
Federal Reserve policymakers are not eager to raise interest rates, but they are cautious about declaring victory as they monitor data such as inflation and job growth; most do not expect a rate hike at the upcoming policy-setting meeting.
The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates on September 14, although nearly half of economists anticipate one more increase this year in an effort to reduce inflation.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by about one percentage point next year as economic growth slows and unemployment rises, according to chief economists at major North American banks.
Pakistan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates to address inflation and bolster foreign exchange reserves, following a series of rate hikes earlier this year in response to economic and political crises.
The European Central Bank may raise interest rates for a 10th consecutive meeting on Thursday, but the decision is uncertain.
The European Central Bank is facing a dilemma on whether to raise its key interest rate to combat inflation or hold off due to economic deterioration, with investors split on the likelihood of a rate hike.
The European Central Bank has raised key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to help bring down inflation, although the economy is expected to remain weak for a while before slowly recovering in the coming years.
The European Central Bank has raised its main interest rate for the 10th consecutive time to tackle inflation, but indicated that further hikes may be paused for now, causing the euro to fall and European stocks to rally.
Russia's Central Bank has raised interest rates to 13% as it expresses concerns about rising inflation and an overheating economy due to increased government spending on the war in Ukraine.
Goldman Sachs strategists predict that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting, but expect the central bank to increase its economic growth projections and make slight adjustments to its interest rate projections.
Despite elevated inflation, the Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates soon, causing the Consumer Price Index to rise significantly and impacting mortgage rates and home prices.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, but investors will be paying close attention to any indications of future rate increases as the central bank continues its fight against inflation.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady and signal that it is done raising rates for this economic cycle, as the bond market indicates that inflation trends are moving in the right direction.
European markets are poised to open lower due to upcoming interest rate decisions from several central banks, while global markets react to the U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement to hold interest rates steady and raise economic growth expectations.
Turkey's central bank raises interest rates to 30% as it seeks to combat high inflation and stabilize the weakening lira.
Central banks around the world may have reached the peak of interest rate hikes in their effort to control inflation, as data suggests that major economies have turned a corner on price rises and core inflation is declining in the US, UK, and EU. However, central banks remain cautious and warn that rates may need to remain high for a longer duration, and that oil price rallies could lead to another spike in inflation. Overall, economists believe that the global monetary policy tightening cycle is nearing its end, with many central banks expected to cut interest rates in the coming year.
The stock market showed a surprising reaction to the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with expectations of a pause in rate hikes leading to selling in the market and a potential change in mood for investors.
The Federal Reserve is paying attention to "real" interest rates, which measures rates adjusted for inflation, and is using this to inform its decisions regarding future rate hikes and inflation.