The BRICS alliance could gain control of the majority of the world's oil and gas trade by including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which could lead to a shift away from the USD and the de-dollarization of the oil economy.
While strategic competitors in emerging markets are calling for change and the share of the US dollar held as official foreign exchange reserves has declined, it is unlikely that there will be a major shift in the US dollar's role as the central global currency due to the stability and reputation of the US government, as well as the challenges and limitations of other options like the renminbi.
The Brics economic group, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is discussing the possibility of expanding its membership and promoting the use of local currencies for trade settlement, with aims to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, but analysts believe that the greenback is unlikely to lose its status as the international reserve currency.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the BRICS Summit that the decline in the global role of the US dollar is an irreversible process, emphasizing the bloc's de-dollarization efforts.
The BRICS summit, which aims to establish a new world monetary order and give voice to underrepresented nations, is criticized for being a nebulous concept without concrete achievements and is primarily centered around China.
The US Dollar strengthens as several BRIC countries express support for the currency, while Fed officials remain quiet on rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions boost the Greenback during US trading hours.
Russia has called on the BRICS alliance to abandon the US dollar for trade settlements and instead embrace local currencies, in a continuation of the bloc's de-dollarization efforts.
Brazil's President proposed the creation of a common currency for BRICS nations to reduce their vulnerability to dollar exchange rate fluctuations, although officials and economists have acknowledged the challenges of such a project.
Brazil's President, Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, announced at the BRICS Summit that the economic alliance will officially abandon the US dollar for trade settlements, aligning with de-dollarization efforts and expanding to include six additional countries by 2024.
South Africa's finance minister says that the BRICS grouping will not replace international payment systems like SWIFT but will explore creating one that strengthens trade in local currencies.
The BRICS summit is aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. Dollar, as the coalition confirms new members including UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina, and discusses the possibility of a new payment system and currency backed by gold.
The BRICS, a bloc of emerging market nations, has expanded its membership to include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with the goal of building a fair, just, inclusive, and prosperous world; however, experts question whether BRICS can effectively compete with the West given their differing priorities, and the ambition of creating a common BRICS currency to rival the dollar is unlikely to materialize due to competing interests and priorities among member states.
The BRICS summit focused on increasing the use of local currencies for trade, but there were no discussions about a digital currency; however, three non-BRICS countries also announced plans to use local currencies instead of the dollar for cross-border trade.
BRICS is considering making local currencies the only accepted form of payment for oil and gas settlements, which could potentially shift global power from the West to the East.
The BRICS nations are divided on the issue of de-dollarization, as statements from the bloc's leaders indicated, despite discussions about the creation of a common currency to rival the US dollar.
Despite recent efforts to de-dollarize global trade, Indian Oil and Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri believes the dominance of the US dollar is unlikely to be threatened by emerging market currencies such as the Indian rupee and China's yuan. Puri stated that while he wishes the rupee to be the lead currency globally, he is also a realist and recognizes the difficulty of replacing the dollar.
The US Dollar experienced a significant decline due to weak economic data and increased risk appetite, while the Euro and British Pound strengthened. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar also performed well, and gold and cryptocurrencies rallied.
The dollar is not likely to lose its status as the global reserve currency despite the expansion of the BRICS group of nations and their aim to find an alternative, as technology and not commodity-based currencies are expected to be the driving force in the future.
The dollar's status as a global reserve currency is facing challenges as countries like China and India promote trade in their own currencies, digital currencies gain popularity, and geopolitical conflicts threaten the international monetary system dominated by the dollar.
The BRICS expansion and their de-dollarization efforts have been met with a relatively calm response from the US, Germany, and the European Union, emphasizing the importance of countries choosing partnerships based on their national interests.
The BRICS bloc, which has now expanded to include 11 countries, controls 30% of the global economy, 46% of the world's population, and a significant share of commodities such as manganese, graphite, nickel, and copper, as well as 42% of the global oil supply, potentially putting pressure on the US economy and challenging the traditional world order.
JP Morgan predicts that the U.S. dollar is at risk of losing its global reserve status as BRICS countries increase their use of local currencies for trade settlement, although the chances of this happening in the near future are slim.
The biggest risk of de-dollarization is that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past economic crises, according to JPMorgan.
The U.S. dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 60% for the first time in decades, as other currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Yen are on the rise due to a growing number of countries settling trade in their national currencies, driven by the de-dollarization process initiated by BRICS to end reliance on the U.S. dollar.
The BRICS alliance is considering the creation of a 'single unit account' as an alternative currency to the US dollar, in order to settle cross-border transactions without depending on a single currency or local currencies.
Developing countries, including members of the BRICS and ASEAN alliances, are actively seeking to reduce their dependency on the US dollar and promote their local currencies for global trade, with a total of 21 countries officially agreeing to ditch the US dollar in 2023.
The US dollar's strength in the foreign exchange market, along with discussions of de-dollarization, highlights the divergence between the US and other major economies. The Dollar Index is on an eight-week rally, reaching a record high in international payments, while the euro's share has declined to a record low. In the week ahead, the US CPI and the ECB meeting are expected to be major events, with the US showing signs of inflation and weaker demand, and the euro facing challenges amid stagnation and inflation. China's CPI and PPI have shown some improvement, but the focus will be on yuan loans and real sector data. The eurozone's focus will be on the possibility of a rate hike by the ECB and the release of July industrial production figures. Japan's household consumption continues to fall, and the country may experience a contraction in Q3. The UK will release employment data and GDP details, while Canada will see data on existing home sales and the CPI. Australia will release its August employment data, and Mexico's peso positions may continue to adjust due to the winding down of the currency forward hedging facility.
The value of the U.S. dollar has been strengthening against the Euro and the British Pound due to the continuing strength of the U.S. economy and the weakness of the European economies.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
The US dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency is at risk due to growing debt in the US, according to economist Barry Eichengreen, highlighting the importance of controlling debt to maintain the dollar's global role.
The euro has been continuously decreasing in value against the dollar for the eighth consecutive week, reflecting the economic challenges faced by Europe, including high inflation and the specter of recession, while the United States has better control over inflation and a stronger labor market, leading to a widening gap between the euro and the dollar.
Creating a BRICS currency backed by gold is considered nonsensical by a former Bank of America strategist, as it would essentially be another gold derivative and would weaken individual currencies within the group.
Argentina's dollar scarcity should not prevent the country from adopting the dollar as its currency, according to economist Francisco Zalles, who believes that dollars would flow back into Argentina once it makes the switch and that Javier Milei's plan to dollarize would be successful. However, other commentators have warned that adopting the dollar without ample reserves could have catastrophic consequences.
The BRICS expansion, which includes countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran, has raised concerns in the U.S. and EU as it poses a threat to Western-dominated financial markets, while China's influence grows and the alliance aims for de-dollarization in global trade.
Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's proposal for a shared currency among the BRICS nations has been met with skepticism due to logistical and political challenges, with differing levels of enthusiasm among the other leaders and the dominant position of the US dollar in global trade.
Former Zimbabwe finance minister, Tendai Biti, has warned of an economic "disaster" if the country moves away from the dollar and joins the BRICS bank, as there is intense debate about de-dollarization within the bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
Developing countries, including the BRICS alliance, are looking to end reliance on the US dollar due to increasing debt and the threat of inflation, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value and a rise in prices. Economist Peter Schiff warns of a tragic ending for the US dollar if other countries continue to move away from it.
Crypto analyst Will Clemente suggests that the US economy's need to issue more dollars to service its debt will inevitably lead to significant currency debasement, making Bitcoin the most promising asset for investors looking to protect their wealth. With the growing digital trend and a wave of Bitcoin adoption, Clemente believes that alternative monetary systems will become increasingly favorable.
The BRICS bloc, including countries like India, China, and Russia, is slowly reducing its dependency on the US dollar and using their local currencies for trade, which could potentially weaken the US dollar's position as the dominant global currency.
